NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2014
Near Term [Through Today]...
The large scale pattern is marked by near zonal flow.
At the surface...strong high off mid-Atlc with ridging Swwd across Gulf
Locally this translates to Sly flow at lowest levels with SW then WLY flow above.
Veering flow with slightly more humid conditions have occurred in the last 12-24 hrs.
Very weak local gradient will allow development of seabreeze which will bring some afternoon Cu clouds inland and...with cool shelf waters... temper coastal temperatures a few degrees.
Expect highs from around 75 at the coast to 80 elsewhere.
Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will remain centered near or just east of the region
throughout the short term period.
This will result in a period of dry and warm conditions with temperatures near to slightly above average.
The model guidance does show a sea breeze developing along the coast each afternoon, which will likely result in temperatures near the beaches being a few degrees cooler in the afternoon given how cool the shelf waters remain.
Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...
The primary focus in the long term period will be on an approaching storm system in the Monday through Tuesday Evening time frame.
While the models are reasonably synced on the timing of this system bringing the bulk of the rain through on Monday afternoon and overnight, there are subtle differences with respect to the intensity of the system.
Most of the models prefer a weaker solution with a cold front coming through early Tuesday morning with little prospect for severe weather or widespread heavy rain.
The Euro tries to develop a more potent wave in the southern stream, resulting in a stronger system.
For now, have kept the system more progressive and weaker.
In any event, should be a good rain producer with 1 to 1.5 inches possible.
Thereafter, drier and cooler conditions return for the remainder of the period.
VFR conditions will dominate this TAF period.
Expect light southerly winds to bring some afternoon Cu clouds onshore.
Lack of low-level moisture will inhibit fog development.
High pressure will remain in place across the marine area
throughout much of the weekend.
By Sunday, as high pressure moves into the Western Atlantic, the tightening gradient between this high and an approaching storm system will result in increasing winds and seas by the first of the week.
Light onshore flow through Sunday will allow enough low-level
moisture to keep minimum humidity values above critical levels.
The airmass will noticeably moisten up on Monday with the next
No red flag concerns are expected thru that time.
Nearly all of the rivers across the northern portion of our area have crested and continue to fall.
Rises are still occurring farther to the south across portions of the lower Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Flint River, Ochlockonee River, and Steinhatchee River.
The next chance of rainfall is on Monday into Tuesday.
The system currently appears progressive enough to prevent excessive rainfall, but rainfall amounts may be enough to temporarily halt some of the river falls.
The latest, specific river forecast information can be found at
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 78 52 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 76 58 78 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 78 54 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 80 53 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 80 53 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 81 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 76 56 78 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 0