NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Local radars show a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) about 100
miles south of Panama City at 18z moving to the east at 30 mph.
The strongest convection so far has been across our coastal waters
but will have to monitor this activity closely as it approaches our southeast Big Bend counties later this afternoon.
Otherwise...the northern edge of the rain shield is currently across our southern tier Georgia zones with the back edge already pushing through the western panhandle and southeast Alabama.
A drier airmass will begin to filter in from the northwest overnight
as a cold front enters our CWA. Will taper PoPs from slight extreme northwest to likely southeast.
Patchy fog will likely develop overnight. Min temps will be in the lower to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The cold front will cross the area on Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the boundary.
While the best threat for strong storms will be over the FL Peninsula, we cannot completely rule out a strong storm over the southeastern FL Big Bend counties based on expected CAPE and shear profiles.
Another front will sweep across the area late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night bringing and end to rain chances for the remainder of this period.
This reinforcing of cooler air will send temps tumbling back into the 40s along and north of a line from VLD to TLH to ECP. The northern tier of zones will see mid 40s. Monday`s highs will peak in the upper 70s. Monday night will be the coldest night of the period for the FL Big Bend and South Central GA where mid 40s will be possible. A few record lows may be in jeopardy on these two mornings.
LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
The period will begin with an upper level trough pulling away to the
northeast and short wave ridging building in from the west.
The upper ridge axis will reach our zones on Wednesday and then be
shunted to the east by the next trough that will impact the area late in the week. The GFS is more diffuse than the Euro with the energy in this system and also more progressive.
At the surface, high pressure will drop south across the area on Tuesday and then remain in place just south of the area through the period.
This ridge will work to hold off any would be shower activity until Friday and Saturday when a front will approach from the north. Look
for 20-30 PoPs on those days.
Max temps will be near normal (mid 80s) through the period. Overnight lows will be a bit below normal Tuesday night and then return to normal after that time.
AVIATION...[through 18 UTC Sunday]
Based on latest radar displays, we have trimmed back significantly on convection at all our TAF sites.
TLH is now the only terminal that has mention of TSRA with the
remaining terminals either -RA or VCSH.
IFR cigs will develop later tonight along with MVFR visibilities in fog.
VSBYS will return to VFR shortly after sunrise but MVFR/IFR cigs may linger into late Sunday morning.
Onshore winds will shift to offshore behind a cold front tonight.
After a second cold frontal passage Sunday evening, winds will pick
up to cautionary to marginal advisory levels.
Winds will begin to subside once again by Monday afternoon.
Winds will become onshore again by Tuesday afternoon and remain so into Thursday.
Drier air will be moving into the region during the next couple of days after a cloudy and wet beginning to the weekend.
No Fire Weather concerns are expected on Sunday, but with potential minimum Relative Humidities falling into the Upper teens to lower 20s on Monday, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed for parts of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle if ERC values are high enough.
With the MCS largely tracking across the Gulf of Mexico, we no longer foresee any possibility for problems on areas streams and creeks over the weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 66 83 49 79 45 / 30 20 10 0 0
Panama City 67 83 55 78 56 / 30 10 10 0 0
Dothan 62 80 47 79 51 / 20 10 0 0 0
Albany 62 80 46 77 49 / 30 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 64 82 49 77 46 / 40 20 10 0 0
Cross City 66 83 56 80 46 / 60 30 10 0 0
Apalachicola 67 81 56 77 51 / 30 20 10 0 0