Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Nov 25

National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl
310 Pm Est Sun Nov 25 2012

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 15 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Showed A 1025 Mb High Pressure Slowly Drifting South Now Located Over Southeast Alabama Along The Border With Georgia. Temperatures Have Climbed To Expected Levels Under Full Sun. Models Indicate Increased Overnight Moisture As The High Pressure Bubble Continues To Slide South And East.

Increased Transport Of Southerly Moisture Plus Decreased Subsidence Is Expected To Allow Higher Overnight Dew Points. The Increased Dew Points Combined With Radiational Cooling And Extended Periods Below 36 Degrees F Tonight Will Generate Widespread Frost Across The Area.

Frost Will Begin Early Over The Eastern Big Bend Of Florida Then Expand Rapidly North And West Across The Florida Panhandle And Into Southeast Alabama And Southwest Georgia Overnight. Another Freeze Is Expected Over South Ga And Inland Portions Of The Fl Big Bend.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Large Scale Flow Over The Southeast Will Transition From Zonal
Monday Morning To Troughing By Tuesday As Energy In The Northern And Southern Streams Tries To Phase. The Trough Axis Will Shift Offshore Into The Atlantic Tuesday Night.

At The Surface, High Pressure Will Move Off The Atlantic Coast Tomorrow As A Frontal System Approaches From The West.

At This Point, We Prefer The Nams Handling Of The Frontal Passage, Which Will Occur Late Tuesday Afternoon Across Our Northwest Zones And Tuesday Night Elsewhere.

Pops Enter The Forecast Late Monday Night Across Southeast Al, Southwest Ga And The Fl Panhandle.

Highest Pops Will Occur On Tuesday, Ranging From Likely In The
Aforementioned Areas To Slight Chance Over The Lower Suwannee.

After A Chilly Start, Temps Will Rise Quickly With Max Temps Near Normal On Monday Afternoon. Temps Will Actually Be Slightly Above Normal On Tuesday. More Importantly, Min Temps Will Moderate Considerably To The 40s Monday And Tuesday Nights.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Extended Long Wave Pattern Projects To Be A Quiet One.

It Commences With Ridging Across The West Half Of Conus Shunting A De-Amplifying Trough Ewd With Axis Along Ern Seaboard And Into Atlc.

At Surface, Low Moved Newd To Off Mid-Atlc Coast With Trailing Cold Front, Responsible For Rain On Tues, Now Well South Of Local Region. In Its Wake, High Pressure Over Nrn Plains And Wrn Gulf Will Build E/Se Allowing Cooler And Drier Air To Overspread The Region Yielding Clear Skies. However, Neither Of The Global Models Show A Major Cool Down Behind This Front.

During The Rest Of The Period, The Trough Will Continue To Lift
Newd, To Be Increasingly Replaced By Upstream Ridging And Nwly
Steering Flow.

On Thurs, A Shortwave Trough Develops In Srn Plains/Tx And Begins To Amplify Ewd Flattening Srn Ridge Yielding Local Zonal Flow Before Weak Ridging Takes Over On Weekend.

At Surface, High Pressure Dominates Local Area As Center Moves From Ms Valley Wed Thru Oh Valley To Offshore Nrn Mid-Atlc Thurs Into Early Fri With Ridge Extending Swwd To Across Local Area Increasing Local Gradient And Ely Flow Into Weekend Mainly Ern Counties.

Ridge Weakens Over The Weekend And A Gulf Low Lifts Newd And Approaches The Local Area Yielding Weak Return Flow, Moderating Temps And Reintroducing A Small Chance Of Rain. Gfs Showing Convective Feedback Deepening Shortwave As It Crosses Gulf States Over Weekend. This Seems Like The Outlier And This Far Out Will Not Bite. So Until I See Better Agreement, This Far Out Will Go With Wdly Sct Pops.

Will Go With Nil Pops Except Wdly Sct Pops Sat Into Sun.

Min Temps Commence Around 5 Degrees Above Climo Tues Night With Lingering Clouds From Exiting Front, Dropping To Below Climo Wed Night Before Rising To Slightly Above Climo Sat Night.

Max Temps At Or Slightly Above Climo Thru The Period.

Avg Inland Min/Max Is 44/68 Degrees.

Aviation...[Through 18z Monday]

Vfr Conditions With Light Winds Will Prevail At The Terminals Through The Period.

Marine...

High Pressure Centered Just North Of The Area Will Maintain Light
Winds And Low Seas For The Next Couple Of Days.

Winds Will Veer To The Southeast From Tonight Through Tuesday.

A Shift To Northwest Winds Is Forecast After A Cold Frontal Passage Tuesday Night.

Winds Will Increase Moderately Behind The Front, But Are Expected To Remain Just Below Cautionary Levels.

Winds Will Continue To Veer Around To Easterly By Wednesday Night And Remain Out Of The East Through Friday.

Fire Weather...

Very Dry Air Will Allow For Long Durations Of Critically Low Relative Humidity Levels Coupled With Dry Fuels Over Portions Of The Area The Remainder Of Today And Again On Monday Afternoon.

Red Flag Conditions Will Continue This Afternoon Over Southeast
Alabama And Various Counties Of The Florida Big Bend And
Panhandle.

Red Flag Criteria Will Not Be As Widespread On Monday And Will Only Be Exceeded In Leon And Wakulla Counties.

However A Fire Weather Watch Has Been Issued For Washington And Bay Counties Where Conditions Are Expected To Approach Red Flag Criteria On Monday Afternoon.

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected Through The Rest Of The Upcoming Work Week.

Hydrology...

Our Qpf For The Upcoming Rain Event On Tuesday Is A Quarter To
Half An Inch, Which Is Not Enough To Cause Significant River Rises. In Fact, It Would Take Quite A Lot Of Rain To Move The Rivers Given How Low They Currently Are.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 29 70 43 71 49 / 0 0 10 40 20
Panama City 45 69 55 71 52 / 0 0 20 50 20
Dothan 33 69 50 70 46 / 0 0 30 60 20
Albany 32 69 44 68 46 / 0 0 10 50 20
Valdosta 31 70 42 69 48 / 0 0 10 40 20
Cross City 30 71 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 20 20
Apalachicola 44 68 50 69 53 / 0 0 10 40 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...
Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Monday For Gadsden-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

Red Flag Warning Until 7 Pm Est /6 Pm Cst/ This Evening For Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Leon-South Walton-Washington.

Fire Weather Watch Monday Afternoon For Coastal Bay-Inland Bay-
Washington.

Red Flag Warning From 11 Am To 6 Pm Est Monday For Coastal
Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Ga...
Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Monday For Baker-Berrien-
Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

Al...
Red Flag Warning Until 6 Pm Cst This Evening For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...
None.


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