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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Nov 24

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Eastern U.S. Long Wave Trough Rapidly Will Rapidly Move East
Into The Western Atlantic Tonight. A Robust Northwesterly Upper
Level Flow Pattern Behind The Trough, Will Move An Area Of High
Pressure Into The Southeast Tonight Behind A Cold Front Now
Located Over Central Florida. The Cold Front Is Currently In The
Vicinity Of Orlando And Continuing To Move South. A Weak Upper
Level Disturbance Behind The Cold Front Is Spreading A Band High
Level Clouds Across The Northern Gulf Of Mexico. However These
Clouds Will Follow The Front South, Leaving Very Dry Air And Clear
Skies Overnight Across The Area.

Radiational Cooling And Calm Winds Will Result In The First Freeze
Of The Season Tonight. Temperatures Will Quickly Drop 10 Degrees
Or More Within A Few Of Hours After Sunset And Dip Into The Upper
30s Shortly After Midnight. Temperatures Are Expected To Go Below Freezing Across Low Lying Inland Areas Up To Seven Hours During The Coldest Part Of The Night.

Areas Near The Coast Are Expected To Escape Below Freezing Temperatures.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

As The Upper Trough Lifts Eastward And Deamplifies, The Flow Across The Southeastern U.S. Will Become Zonal For Sunday And Monday. Surface High Pressure Will Be Centered Over South Ga By Monday Morning. This Will Allow Areas Along And East Of The Flint And Apalachicola Rivers To Once Again Dip To Freezing Or A Few Degrees Below. Coldest Areas Will Be In The Suwannee Valley Where Upper 20s Will Be Possible. A Freeze Watch Will Be Issued For These Areas.

The Next Trough Will Begin To Amplify Across The Mississippi Valley Monday Night As Short Wave Energy In The Northern And Southern Streams Begins To Phase. As The Associated Surface Cold Front Moves Into Al, Pops Will Return To The Forecast For Monday Night For The Northwest 2/3 Of The Forecast Area.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

After A Cold Monday, The Extended Period Will Begin With A Warming
Trend. However This Will Be Short-Lived, As A Trough Amplifies
Over Cntrl Conus To Begin The Period.

Assocd Low Moves From Tx Coast Newd To New England By Wed. This Will Deepen Surface Low That Moves From Tn Valley Into Oh Valley And Then Ern Great Lakes Late Mon Night Thru Tues Eve Sending A Trailing Cold Front Racing Through Our Forecast Area Tuesday Aftn Into Eve. This Front Will Bring A Sct Showers And Isold Tstms Late Mon Night (Wrn Counties) Overspreading The Area Thru Tues With A Noted Nw-Se Pop Gradient As Forcing And Deeper Layer Moisture Increasingly Lift To The Ne. Then, Upper Trough Lifts Newd With Ridging And Nwly Steering Flow Over Area Next Few Days.

At The Surface, In The Wake Of The Front, Strong High Pressure Will Build To The North Allowing Cooler And Drier Air To Overspread The Region Yielding Clear Skies, However, Neither Of The Global Models Show A Major Cool Down Behind This Front.

The High Will Shift Ewd From Oh Valley On Thurs To Ern Seaboard On Fri With Increasing Ely Flow In Response To Next Low/Front. This Front Should Approach Late Fri Night Into Sat Bringing An Increase In Moisture And Rain. This Will Allow High Temps To Begin To Again Increase.

Will Go With Wdly Sct Pops Mon Night Increasing To Mid Sct Pops Tues Then Dropping To Wdly Sct Late Tues Night Into Early Wed. Otherwise, Below Nil Pops Thru Fri Then Wdly Sct Pops Fri Night-Sat.

Min Temps At Or Slightly Above Climo Mon Night, Then 5-8 Degrees Above Tues Night With Clouds And Rain...Then Dropping To 3-5 Degrees Below Climo Remainder Of The Nights.

Max Temps At Or Above Climo Tues And Wed, Then Around Climo Rest Of Period.

Avg Inland Min/Max Is 44/68 Degrees.

Aviation...[Through 18z Sunday]

Light Gusty Winds This Afternoon Will Rapidly Abate Becoming Calm After Sunset. Only Light Winds Are Expected Tomorrow During The Day. Vfr Flying Conditions With Clear Skies Will Continue Through Tomorrow.

Marine...

Winds Have Dropped Below Cautionary Levels This Afternoon. While A Modest Increase Is Possible Tonight, Headlines Are Not Anticipated.

Winds Will Be Light On Sunday And Then Veer To Onshore On Monday Ahead Of An Approaching Frontal System.

Winds Will Shift To Offshore Once Again After Cold Frontal Passage Tuesday Night. Speeds May Increase To Cautionary Conditions Once Again Late Tuesday Night Into Wednesday.

Fire Weather...

Very Dry Air Will Allow For Long Durations Of Critically Low Relative Humidity Levels Coupled With Dry Fuels Over The Next Few Days.

Red Flag Humidities Are Still Expected On Monday Before The
Airmass Moistens Up Ahead Of The Next Cold Front.

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected Through The Upcoming Work Week.

Hydrology...

All Rivers Are At Base Flow Under Relatively Dry Conditions.
Rainfall Expected With Next Weeks Frontal System Will Not Be
Sufficient To Produce Significant River Rises.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 30 65 30 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 38 64 43 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 20
Dothan 32 63 35 70 49 / 0 0 0 0 30
Albany 30 64 32 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 29 65 32 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 30 66 31 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 37 63 38 69 50 / 0 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...
Freeze Warning From 2 Am Est /1 Am Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/
Sunday For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

Red Flag Warning Until 7 Pm Est This Evening For Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Fire Weather Watch From Sunday Morning Through Sunday Evening
For Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Ga...
Freeze Warning From 2 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...
Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 8 Am Cst Sunday For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...None.


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