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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Nov 18

Near Term [Through Monday]...

The 00 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Showed A Ridge Of Very High
Pressure Along The U.S. East Coast And A Quasi-Stationary Front
And Developing Frontal Wave Off The Coast Of Ga & Sc.

This Synoptic Setup Was Producing Northeast Winds Across Our Region.

Vapor Imagery And Upper Air Data Showed A Closed 500 Mb Low Nearly Coincident With The Frontal Wave, With Ample Dry Air Above 750 Mb.

For A Detailed Discussion About Tonights Cloud Forecast, Refer To The Aviation Section Below.

If The Clouds Evolve The Way We Think, They Will Have Some Impact On The Overnight Low Temperatures.

We Weighted The Temperature Forecast Southwest Of The Expected Cloud Cover More Heavily Toward The Cooler Mos Consensus (Lower To Mid 40s), While We Gave A Little More Weight To The Raw Model Output For Sites Underneath The Expected Clouds (Which Will Be Warmer- Upper 40s To Lower 50s).

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Even Though This Should Be A Fairly Uneventful Period With Gradually Moderating High Temperatures, Cloud Cover Will Continue To Be The Most Challenging Aspect Of The Fcst. With A Piece Of The Sfc Low (Which Is Currently Nearly Collocated With The Upper Low Off The South Carolina Coast This Aftn) Expected To Temporarily Break Away And Pivot Southward Tonight Into Monday.

Lower Cigs Are Now Fcst To Return From The East.

Despite The Mostly Sunny Day Today, This Cloudiness Could Result In Mostly Cloudy Skies (Especially To The East) Lingering Into Tuesday.

By Late Tuesday Aftn And Night, Skies Should Finally Clear, As The Next Upper Shortwave Pivots Through The Se U.S. With A Large Sfc Ridge Poised To Build In From The Nw For Mid Week And Onward.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Rather Benign Weather Is Expected To Continue Through The Period
With Mainly Zonal Flow Aloft And High Pressure At The Surface.

Dry Weather Is Expected With All Pops During The Period Remaining Below 15 Percent And Near Seasonal Temperatures.

Aviation...[Through 18z Monday]

Vfr Conditions Will Continue Into Tonight For All Locations.

Some Clouds Are Expected To Creep In From The Northeast Overnight Creating Mvfr Conditions For Tlh, Aby, And Vld With Tlh Clearing The Quickest In The Morning.

Marine...

With The Pressure Gradient Expected To Tighten Up Again Tonight,
Northeasterly Winds Should Regain Cautionary Levels Which Will
Should Linger Into Monday Morning.

Winds Will Then Decrease To Below Headline Levels And Remain Out Of The North To Northeast For Much Of The Upcoming Week, Except For The Possibility For A Couple Of Short Periods Of Cautionary Conditions Before Thursday.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For The Next Several Days With Relative Humidity Values Forecast To Remain Above Critical Levels.

Hydrology...

With Little Or No Rainfall Expected During The Next Several Days,
No Significant River Rises Are Anticipated.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 45 70 48 72 46 / 0 0 10 10 10
Panama City 48 69 51 71 52 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 44 70 46 72 46 / 0 0 10 10 10
Albany 45 68 46 72 45 / 0 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 48 68 46 72 44 / 0 0 10 10 10
Cross City 45 72 47 73 47 / 0 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 48 68 52 70 53 / 0 0 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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