Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Nov 17

Near Term [Through Sunday]...

Recent Radar/Visible Satellite Imagery Trends Show An Area Of
Light Rain Affecting Portions Of The Fl Big Bend, Mainly East Of
Tallahassee. Although The Latest Convection Allowing Models (Cam)
Are Likely Way Overdone With Their Rain Chances For This Evening,
We Did Add Some Slight Pops To This Evenings Forecast To Account
For The Current Area Of Rain. Any Qpf Will Be Very Low.

The Big Question For Later Tonight Is How Much Potential Exists
For The Reformation And Westward Spreading Of The Vfr Cigs. At
This Time, We Are Going With The More Optimistic Guidance For Sky,
Which Will Show Some Westward Propagation, But Should Keep Any
Cigs Confined To The Eastern 1/3 Of The Cwa, And At Levels Just
Above 3kft.

This Will Allow Low Temps To Bottom Out Into The Upper 30s Well North And West In Our Cwa, To The Mid 40s Further To The South And East.

Short Term [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

On Sunday, An Upper Level Cut-Off Low Is Forecast To Be Directly
Overhead. With Limited Moisture Aloft, The Main Effect This Low
Will Have On The Local Area Will Be To Continue The Persistent
Moist Low Level Northeasterly Flow On The Backside Of Developing
Surface Low Pressure.

This Will Continue To Support Areas Of Significant Cloud Cover, Mainly Overnight And Through The Early Morning For Locations East Of The Apalachicola And Chattahoochee Rivers.

However, The Cloud Cover Is Not Expected To Be As Thick, Or Persistent As Past Afternoons.

Thus, Afternoon Temperatures Will Be Able To Climb Into The Low 70s For Clearer Spots, And The Upper 60s Elsewhere. Overnight, Lows Will Be Moderated By The Cloud Cover And Most Areas Will Experience Temperatures Ranging From The Upper 40s To Lower 50s.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Rather Benign Weather Is Expected For Next Week With A Progressive Pattern In Place. Although An Upper Level Disturbance Is Expected To Pass Through The Area Around Mid-Week, It Looks Moisture Starved With Minimal Surface Reflection On The 17/00z Gfs And 16/12z Euro.

The Official Forecast Continues With A Dry Forecast Through The Week With Pops Below 15 Percent.

Near Seasonal Temperatures Are Expected.

Aviation [Beginning 22z Saturday]...

With The Fairly Quick Lifting And Dissipation Of The Low Level Clouds Earlier Today, The Latest Tafs Now Reflect The Prevailing
Vfr Conditions Which Should Continue Through The Period. Vld And
Tlh Will Be The Most Likely Terminals To Have Periods Of Bkn Cigs
This Afternoon And Tonight, But These Should Remain Above 3 Kft.
By Sunday Afternoon, No Cigs At All Are Expected, As The Sfc And
Upper Level Lows Pull Further Away From Our Region.


Winds And Seas Are To Remain At Least Within Cautionary Levels For
Several Days As We Remain Sandwiched Between High And Low
Pressure. Advisory Levels Are Expected Through Tomorrow Morning.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For The Next Several Days With Afternoon Relative Humidity Values Forecast To Remain Above Critical Levels. However, Drier Air Working Into The Region On Sunday Should Allow For Some Areas To Drop Into The Lower 40s (Relative Humidity) During The Afternoon.


Without Any Rainfall Expected Over The Next Several Days, No
Significant River Rises Are Anticipated.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 43 71 49 70 50 / 20 0 0 0 0
Panama City 46 70 51 70 53 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 40 68 47 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 41 70 46 68 49 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 44 68 49 68 49 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 45 72 49 73 51 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 48 69 51 70 52 / 10 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 11 Am Est Sunday For Waters From
Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

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