Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Mar 9

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Remains Highly Amplified
Highlighted By A Trough Over The Western Half Of The Conus With
Axis From Cntrl Canada Ssw Thru Western-Most Plains To A Low Over 4-Corners, And A Ridge Over The Eastern Half With Axis From
Eastern-Most Great Lakes Swd To Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. Finally, A
Trough Was Noted Over Extreme Western Atlantic With Low South Of
Canadian Maritimes. At The Surface, Broad Low Pressure Was Noted
From The Great Basin To Central Plains With High Pressure Over
The Eastern States.

Locally, As Upstream Low Moves From 4-Corners Ene To Southern Ks By Sunrise, Downstream Deep Layer Ridging Is Expected Shift Ene With Ridge Down Eastern Seaboard And Surface High Settling Over The Carolinas. Tlh Model Soundings Respond By Showing That Winds Will Continue To Veer To The Se Up To H8 Then Ene To H7 With Cloud Deck Lowering To H5-6 Implying An Increase In Mid-High Level Clouds And A Reduction In Radiational Cooling And A Moderation In Tonights Low Temps.

Surface Ridge Will Continue To Slide Ewd Then Build Sewd With Veering Winds To The Se As Reflected In Rap13 Tlh Soundings. Still, Pwats Remain Around 0.6 Inches. This Will Serve To Keep Gradients Tighter Than Normal With Se Winds Generally In The 5 To 8 Mph Range. So Fog Doesnt Look A Good Bet And Any Haze Will Be Too Thin To Have Much Of An Impact So For Now Will Keep It Out Of The Grids.

Expect Inland Lows Generally From The Mid 40s In The Eastern Counties To The Upper 40s In The Western Counties With More And Lower Clouds.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Overall, The Latest Set Of Model Guidance (09.12z Runs) Did Not
Reflect A Significant Change From The Previous Forecast. Thus, The Forecast Remains Relatively Similar To What Has Been Advertised The Past Couple Days.

An Upper Level Low Over The Southern Plains At The Beginning Of The Period Will Eject Northeast Into The Great Lakes, With Corresponding Weak-Moderate Surface Cyclogenesis Along A Similar Trajectory.

A Trailing Cold Front Will Sweep East Along The Gulf Coast Late Sunday Through Monday Night - Reaching Our Area Around 00z Tuesday And Exiting By 15z Tuesday.

Highest Pops Continued To Be Concentrated On Monday Night, With Values Peaking Around 70-80% In Most Spots. Models Are In Very Good Agreement That Instability Will Be Extremely Limited, With Mucape Less Than 200 J/Kg And Muli At Best Near Neutral.

Therefore, We Went With Rain In The Weather Grids - Paired With Just "Isolated Storms" Right Along The Cold Front.

Sunday Looks To Be A Warm Day With Highs In The Mid 70s.

Monday Could Be Warm Too In The Eastern Half Of Our Area (Mid 70s Again) Out Ahead Of The Increasing Clouds.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A Strong Upper Level Low Digging Into The Northeast Us Will Remain
Closed Off And Move Very Slowly Through The Extended Part Of The

This Will Reinforce Wnw Flow Aloft Through Most Of The Week With A Ridge Of Surface High Pressure Gradually Shifting Across Our Local Forecast Area.

The Result Will Be A Dry Forecast With Moderating Temperatures By The End Of The Week And Next Weekend.

Aviation [Through 18z Sunday]...

Expect Increasing Cloud Decks Above 13k Thru Period - Vfr Conditions.

Relatively Light E/Se Winds But Above Calm Will Suppress Any Fog And Haze Late Night Into Sun Morning.

Winds Will Increase To Moderate Se With Higher Gusts After 13z-14z And Thru Sundown Sun.


Small Craft Advisory Was Issued From 07z Tonight To 18z Sunday For
Winds Of Around 20-23 Knots West Of Apalachicola.

The Conditions Are Sort Of Borderline, But Raw Model Guidance Consistently Shows 20 Knot Winds, And That Tends To Perform Better With The Typical Nocturnal Increases In Winds.

We Will Likely See Scec Or Advisory Conditions Persist Through Tuesday In Some Form As S-Se Winds Persist Ahead Of A Cold Front Through Monday, Veering To The Nw In The Wake Of The Cold Front On Monday Night And Tuesday.

Regarding Surf And Rip Currents:

The Initial Surge Of Winds Tonight Should Cause Seas To Build In The Western Half Of Our Waters With Some Incoming Swell To The Panhandle Beaches.

Surf Heights Tomorrow From Panama City Beach West To Destin Look To Be Around 3 To 4 Feet.

Combined With Se Winds Around 14-15 Knots, We Will Probably Be Looking At A High Risk Of Rip Currents.

Another Increase In Winds Is Expected Monday (More From The South) And Surf Heights Could Build To 4-5 Feet.

This Is Shy Of Surf Advisory Criteria, But Should Be Sufficient For Another Active Rip Current Day From Destin To Cape San Blas.

Fire Weather...

A Cold Front Will Approach The Local Area On Monday And Move Across Monday Night Into Tuesday.

This Will Spread Ample Showers And Thunderstorms Along With Gusty Winds.

High Transport Winds And Dispersions Will Be Offset By Low Mixing Heights Especially On Monday. Red Flag Humidities Will Remain Well Above Critical Levels.

In The Wake Of This Front, The Airmass Will Noticeably Dry Out With
Minimum Inland Humidities Around 30 Percent During The Rest Of The Work Week, But Still Above Red Flag Levels.


The Only River Gauge That Is Reporting A Level Above Flood Stage
Is The One Near Lamont On The Aucilla River. That River Has
Crested At That Point, And River Levels Are Slowly Receding.

The Suwannee River Appears To Have Already Crested At Dowling Park And Luraville - Below Flood Stage At Both Locations. At Branford,
A Crest Below Flood Stage Is Expected On Monday. No Flooding Is
Currently Occurring On The Suwannee, And None Is Forecast In The
Next 5 Days. We Will Have To Monitor The Wilcox Point Downstream
As The Last Forecast Stage From The Rfc On Thursday Is Just Below
Flood Stage.

Upcoming Rainfall Is Not Expected To Be Sufficient To Cause
Additional River (Or Flash) Flooding.

The Front Will Be Moving Through The Area Quickly - More Or Less In About 12 Hours.

Although Brief Heavy Rain Could Occur, Rainfall Totals Are Currently Expected To Be Below 1.2"

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 47 76 51 75 54 / 0 0 10 30 70
Panama City 54 73 58 72 51 / 0 0 10 60 80
Dothan 49 76 54 72 47 / 0 0 10 70 80
Albany 46 76 51 74 51 / 0 0 10 40 80
Valdosta 46 77 50 76 55 / 0 0 0 20 70
Cross City 45 79 50 78 58 / 0 0 0 10 60
Apalachicola 55 69 58 70 55 / 0 0 0 40 70

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Small Craft Advisory From 3 Am To 2 Pm Edt Sunday For Coastal
Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

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