Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Mar 31

Near Term [Tonight]...

Had A Fairly Active Evening With Strong To Briefly Severe Convection
Mainly Across Our Georgia Zones. Now We See Showers And
Thunderstorms Associated With A Squall Line Across The Lower
Mississippi Valley Approaching Our Westernmost Zones. While This
Line Of Convection Is Weakening, We Do Expect This Activity To Move
Into Our Cwa Later This Evening And Overnight. Have Adjusted Pops Up A Bit To Account For This. Otherwise, No Other Significant Chances Were Made.

Short Term [Monday Through Wednesday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Continues To Show Amplification
Especially Across Ern Half Of Conus. Across Wrn States, Pattern
Begins With Troughing In Srn Stream With Ridging From Cntrl Rockies Thru Old Mex. Ewd, Full Amplitude Trough From Nrn Plains To New England With Axis Swd To Ern Gulf And Low Just N Of Great Lakes In Canada. At Surface, Low Near New England Coast With Cold Front Ssw Across Wrn Atlc Then Thru Cntrl Ga And S/Cntrl Al.

This Places Local Area In Soupy Warm Sector With Shwrs Likely And A Chance Of Tstms Beginning In The Morning.

During The Rest Of Day, Ewd Moving Upper Trough Plus Exiting Weak
Upper Shortwave Will Push Cold Front Swd And Across Area Into Nrn
Most Gulf Of Mex Thru Eve With Shwrs And Tstms Continuing Thru The Day In Warm Sector Where Dew Points Will Rise To Around 60f And Diurnal Heating Will Favor Convection And Weak Destabilization. Weak Wind Fields And Deep Layer Forcing Plus Marginal Instability Means At Best Low Level Severe Threat. For Example 18z Gfs Dhn Guidance With 0-6km Shear Of Only 25kts, 0-3km Helicity Only 60m2 And Brn Of Only 35 And Model Sounding Has Z-Level And Wb-Z Both About 10k So Hail Not A Good Bet. Still, As Cells Intensify In The Aftn,
Stronger Storms May Develop And With Unidirectional Wind Profiles
And 700-500mb Lapse Rates Around 7c, An Isold Marginal Damaging Wind Threat Exists Along With Potential To Produce Small Hail.

By Mon Night, Shortwave Well East Of Area And Upper Low Has Lifted
Towards Canadian Maritimes With Flow Across The Ne Gulf Region
Becoming Nearly Zonal. Surface Ridge Over Srn Great Lakes Will Build Swd Into Tn Valley Monday Night And Into Se Region On Tues Pushing Front And Assocd Deep Layer Moisture South Of Local Area. So In The Wake Of Front, Area Will Dry Out Thru Tues Night But Could Be Real Breezy. However Dry Weather Will Be Short Lived.

Srn Stream Trough Over Wrn States On Mon Advances Ewd With Several Shortwave Ejecting Out Ahead. The Trough Reaches Srn Plains By Wed While Lead Shortwaves Moves Across Gulf Coast Region Tues Night Thru Wed. By Then, Surface Ridge Moves Offshore With Veering Local Flow.

This Leads To Cyclogenesis And The Development Of Surface Low Over Sw Gulf Tues Night Which Moves Into Nrn Gulf On Wed With Tightening Pressure Gradients. As A Result, Local Deep Layer Flow Veers To Swly With Increasing Moisture Transported Sewd Into Local Region.

Expect Likely Rain Ahead And Along The Low To Spread Newd And Across Our Area On Wed. At This Point, Chances Of Tstms Rather Low With Best Chance Over Panhandle Waters.

Expect Max Inland Temps Mon In The Mid To Upper 70s Or About
Average Rising On Tues To Around 80 Before Dropping To The Upper 60s North To Mid-Upper 70s South Wed As Clouds And Rain Overspread Area.

Low Mon And Tues Nights Will Be Generally 50 To 54 Degrees Or A Tad Higher Than Normal. Expect 50-60% Pops On Mon, 0-20% Pop Mon Night Then Nil Pops Tues And Tues Night And A 70-30% Sw-Ne Pop Gradient On Wed.

Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...

The Period Begins With Above Upper Trough Digging Across The Srn
Plains, Deepening As It Moves Across The Gulf Waters And Gulf Coast States Thursday And Thursday Night Before Shifting East Into The Wrn Atlc On Friday.

In Response, Gulf Low Lifts Newd And Intensifies As It Moves To Just South Of Or Along The Fl Panhandle Thursday Lifting Previous Cold Front Back Nwd As A Warm Front With Overrunning Setting Up.

Low/Warm Front Move To Our Nrn Most Waters On Thurs And
Dragging Trailing Cold Front Across Area Thurs Night Before Low/Cold Fronts Exits Into Wrn Atlc By Fri.

Periods Of Heavy Rain Are Possible Through Thursday Night With Rain Tapering Off By Friday Morning.

Best Chance For Any Tstms Will Be Panhandle Waters And Adjacent Coastal Counties Wed Night Thru Thurs Spreading Newd Over Land Thurs Night.

Although Confidence High On Rain Event, Its Lower On Thunderstorm
Potential As Well As Location And Potential For Heavy Rainfall. This
Due To Continued Model Differences As Gfs Brings A Deeper Surface
Low Across The Panhandle While The Euro Is Weaker And Further West With The System.

A Dampening Ridge And Surface High Pressure Move Into Area Over Weekend For Drier Conditions.

Expect Inland Min Temps In The Mid 50s Wed Night, Low 50s Se Al To
Near 60 Se Big Bend Thurs Night, Dropping In Wake Of Front/Lows To
Mid To Upper 40s Fri Night Then Back To Around 50 Sat Night.

Max Inland Temps Will Range From Mid 60s Nw To Mid 70s Se On Thurs And Fri Rising To Mid 70s Sat And Upper 70s On Sun.

Expect 70% Pops Wed Night, 50-60% On Thurs, 40-50% W-E Pops Thurs Night And 20-30% Fri With Nil Pops Rest Of Period.

Aviation [Through 18z Monday]...

Vfr Is Prevailing Across Much Of The Area And At The Terminals In
The Early Afternoon, And That Should Continue Through The Daytime
Hours. We Expect Cigs To Gradually Trend Down Into The Mvfr And Ifr
Range Overnight. -Shra And A Few Ts This Afternoon Should Give Way
To Some Steadier -Ra Overnight With Perhaps A Few Embedded Ts.


A Few Showers And Thunderstorms Will Effect Coastal Waters Through Monday Evening As A Weak Cold Front Moves Into The Area. Large Scale Winds Should Peak Around 15 Knots Thru Sundown, But Isolated Areas May See Higher Winds And Seas Near Storms.

On Wednesday, Another Storm System Will Approach The Forecast Area With Increasing Winds And Seas To Advisory Levels.

Winds And Seas Will Start To Decrease Thursday Night Behind The System.

Fire Weather...

An Increase In Moisture And Chances For Wetting Rains Are Forecast
For Today And Monday, Precluding Any Fire Weather Concerns.

Drier Air Will Arrive Behind A Front On Tuesday, But Rh Will Remain Above Critical Levels.


Only The Aucilla River At Lamont Remains In Flood Stage At This

Most Rivers Are Expected To Gradually Recede Or Hold Steady Over The Next Few Days.

Rainfall Amounts Today And Monday Are Not Expected To Be Enough To Cause Significant Rises.

However, Additional Moderate To Perhaps Heavy Rainfall Is Expected By Mid-Week Which Could Cause Some Rises At That Time.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 60 78 52 81 53 / 50 50 20 10 10
Panama City 63 76 57 76 56 / 50 40 10 10 10
Dothan 60 78 51 79 53 / 70 40 10 10 20
Albany 61 77 52 80 52 / 70 60 10 10 10
Valdosta 60 77 52 82 52 / 40 60 20 10 10
Cross City 60 77 53 81 53 / 20 60 20 10 10
Apalachicola 62 74 58 74 58 / 50 50 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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