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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Mar 30

Near Term [Tonight]...

Shortwave Is Currently Passing Through Central Al/Ga And Generating An Area Of Light Showers Along And North Of A Quasi-
Stationary Front. The Front Is Situated From Near Meridien, Ms To
August, Ga. With The Upper Energy And Boundary In Place Near The
Northern Portion Of The Forecast Area, A Few Showers Will Be
Possible For These Areas Overnight. This Scenario Is Handled Well
In The Current Forecast, So No Significant Changes Are Planned.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

At Upper Levels, A Short Wave Trough Will Propagate Through A
Longwave Trough, Which Will Deepen And Begin To Dig Into The Great Lakes Region On Sunday. The Shortwave Will Cause A Surface Low To Develop Rather Quickly. Sunday Morning, There Is About 20% Pops As This Low Develops To Our Northwest.

By Sunday Afternoon, Rain Chances Increase As This Surface Low Pushes A Weak Cold Front Through. The Front Is Expected To Stall, Giving Us Chances Of Showers And Thunderstorms Through Early Monday Night.

Max Temperatures Sunday And Monday Will Be In The Upper 70s. Low Temperatures Sunday Night Will Stay Around 60 Since Cloud Cover And Precipitation Will Prevent Nighttime Cooling. Lows Will Drop Monday Night To The Low To Mid 50s And Skies Will Start To Clear After Midnight For The Western Forecast Area As The Front Moves Eastward.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Tuesday Will Be Warm And Mild In Advance Of A Period Of Rain And
Scattered Thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon Through Thursday Night.

An Upper Level Trough Will Dig Across The Southern Plains Wednesday Night, Deepening As It Moves Across The Gulf And Gulf Coast States Thursday And Thursday Night Before Shifting East Of Our Area Friday.

In Response To The Deepening Upper Level System, A Low Pressure
System Will Develop In The Gulf Of Mexico Wednesday, Intensifying As
It Moves To The Fl Panhandle Thursday. This Will Allow Precipitation
To Move Into The Fl Panhandle Wednesday Afternoon And Spread Across The Region By Wednesday Night Into Thursday.

Periods Of Heavy Rain Are Possible From The Wednesday Night Through Thursday Time Period With Showers Tapering Off By Friday Morning.

Model Differences Increase By The End Of The Period But Timing Of
The Precipitation Is Reasonably Close. The Main Difference Is That
The Gfs Brings A Deeper Surface Low Across The Panhandle While The Euro Is Weaker And Further North And West With The System. The Development And Location Of The System Will Impact Thunderstorm Potential As Well As Location And Potential For Heavy Rainfall.

Temperatures Will Be In The Lower 80s Inland Tuesday, Dropping Into The Low To Mid 70s For The Remainder Of The Period.

Aviation [Through 00z Monday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected At Least Through 06z At All Terminals. There Will Be A Chance Of Mvfr Vsbys/Cigs Due To Stratus Or Patchy Fog In The Pre-Dawn Hours. Light Rain Is Also Possible Early Sunday Morning With A Chance Of A Tstm At All Terminals In The Afternoon.

Marine...

Light Onshore Flow Is Forecast To Continue Overnight With Minimal
Seas.

Fire Weather...

Afternoon Minimum Rh Will Remain Well Above Critical Thresholds
For The Foreseeable Future. There May Be Some High Dispersions On Sunday And Monday In North Florida.

Hydrology...

The Aucilla River At Lamont Has Risen Above Flood Stage. The Sites
Along The Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, And Withlacoochee Rivers Which Were Previously In Flood Stage Have All Dropped Below Flood Stage.

Rivers Are Expected To Gradually Recede Or Hold Steady Over The Next Few Days.

Rainfall Amounts On Sunday And Monday Will Not Be Enough To Cause Any Significant Rises.

Additional Rainfall Is Expected Around The Wednesday Through Thursday Time Frame Which Could Cause Some River Rises.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 53 78 60 79 55 / 10 30 30 50 20
Panama City 59 76 62 76 59 / 20 30 40 50 10
Dothan 56 79 60 79 54 / 30 30 50 50 10
Albany 54 78 60 78 53 / 30 30 40 60 10
Valdosta 52 78 58 78 55 / 10 30 30 60 30
Cross City 51 78 58 78 57 / 10 10 20 50 20
Apalachicola 58 74 62 74 60 / 10 30 30 50 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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