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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Mar 24

Near Term [Until 7 Am Monday Morning]...

As Anticipated, Temperatures Soared Ahead Of The Cold Front In
The Wake Of This Mornings Convection. We Even Noted A Sea Breeze
Front Today With Isolated Showers Firing On It Over Southern Ga
Late In The Day. These Should Dissipate Shortly And Only Included
A Silent 10 Pop For The Evening Hours.

Vld Was The Warmest Spot Today With A Max Temp Of 89 Degrees. Tlh Was Close Behind At 86. This Is The Warmest Temperature Observed At The Airport Since November 3rd.

Dont Get Used To That Though. The Cold Front Is Poised To Move Into The Western Portion Of The Forecast Area Early This Evening And Will Clear East Of The Area By 06z. A Full Night Of Cold Dry Air Advection Will Allow Temps To Tumble Some 40 Degrees From The Afternoon Highs.

Coldest Portions Of Southeast Al Will Get Into The Mid 30s With Lower 40s Over The Fl Big Bend And Coastal Fl Panhandle.

Wind Chill Readings By Sunrise Will Range From The Upper 20s Northwest Of Dhn To The Upper 30s Across Much Of The Fl Big Bend And Panhandle.

Short Term [7 Am Monday Morning Through Tuesday Night]...

Very Chilly Temperatures Are On Tap For The Next Few Days As A
Deep Trough Digs Into The Eastern States And Several Surges Of
Cold Air Make Their Way Into The Deep South.

With 850mb Temperatures Dropping Well Below Freezing By Monday
Night, Temperatures Will Drop Even Further, Reaching The Lower 30s
By Sunrise. Winds Should Remain Elevated Overnight, Keeping
Temperatures Above Freezing.

The Coldest Day Of The Episode Will Be Tuesday, With 850mb Temperatures Around -4c To -5c. This Should Hold High Temperatures In The Mid To Upper 50s Area-Wide, Despite
The Strong Late March Sun.

Temperatures Will Once Again Drop Into The Lower 30s Tuesday Night. This Will Be The Best Chance For A Widespread Light Freeze. However, The Position Of The High Is Not Ideal For Decoupling, Which May Keep Temps From Dropping Below Freezing.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Extended Period Will Be Dry With Below Seasonal Temperatures
Through Thursday Night.

High Temperatures Will Range From The Upper 50s Northern Zones To Lower 60s Across North Florida On Wednesday.

Max Temps Moderate To The Mid To Upper 60s Thursday And Around 70 To The Lower 70s On Friday.

Min Temps Will Be In The Mid To Upper 30s Wednesday Night And Then Around 40 Thursday Night.

Rain Chances Do Not Return To The Forecast Until Late Friday Or
Saturday. Even Then, The Chance For Significant Rain Appears Low.

Aviation...Through 00z Tuesday

A Cold Front Will Pass Through The Region Tonight Bringing A Possibility Of Very Brief Mvfr Ceilings. Winds Will Remain Elevated Tonight And Gusty With The Frontal Passage.

Skies Will Clear Behind The Front And Vfr Conditions Will Prevail
For The Remainder Of The Taf.

Gusty Winds Will Carry Into Monday, With Gusts As High As 35 Knots Possible.

Keep In Mind, Both Tonight And Tomorrow, That There Will Be A Rather Significant Wind Difference From Around 5kft (40kt) Down To The Surface (15 Kt).

Marine...

Strong Northwest Flow Will Develop Overnight In The Wake Of A
Strong Cold Front.

Advisory Level Winds Will Persist Into At Least Monday Night With Cautionary Conditions Lingering Into Wednesday.

High Pressure Will Then Build Over The Waters Allowing Conditions To Relax For The Second Half Of The Week.

Fire Weather...

Much Drier Air Will Arrive Behind The Cold Front With Minimum
Relative Humidities In The 20-25% Range On Monday.

Winds Will Also Remain Elevated And Red Flag Conditions Are Likely Across Southeast Alabama. A Warning Is Already In Place.

The Latest Grids Also Support Red Flag Conditions For Parts Of The Fl Panhandle. Will Let The Mid Shift Bring In The Latest Data Overnight, But Most Likely A Warning Will Be Needed For At Least Holmes, Washington, Bay And Walton Counties.

It Will Be Nearly As Dry On Tuesday, But Winds Should Be A Bit Lower Precluding Red Flag Criteria From Being Met In Al. Fl Is Another Story. With Erc Values Likely To Only Increase And Winds Still Easily At 15 Kt, A Fire Weather Watch Will Likely Be Needed For Parts Of Northwest Fl For Tuesday.

Hydrology...

Rainfall From Saturday And Early This Morning Contributed To Sharp
Rises On The Ochlockonee And Withlacoochee Rivers.

The Withlacoochee At Valdosta Is At Minor Flood Stage But The Rate Of Rise Is Lessening And The River Is Expected To Crest On Monday. Further Downstream Of Valdosta, Flooding Is Not Expected.

Along The Ochlockonee, A Lot Of Local Runoff From Rain Around The
Ga/Fl Border Has Pushed The Concord Point Higher This Afternoon And Upstream Routed Flow Will Likely Result In The River At Concord
Reaching Minor Flood Stage On Monday. At This Time, It Appears As
Though The River Level Will Stay Below Moderate Flood Level. Minor
Flooding Is Also Anticipated Further Downriver At The Gage Near
Havana By The Middle Of The Week.

The Aucilla River, Which Was Still Relatively High Before The Recent
Rains Is On Its Way Back To Flood Stage. However, This Time Around
The River Should Crest Just Barely Above Flood Stage On Tuesday.

Thankfully, No Significant Rains Are Anticipated For The Next Several Days, Which Will Allow For Improvement In Flood Conditions Across The Region. However, River Levels Still Remain Well Above Base Flow, Making The Area Vulnerable Should Another Heavy Rainfall
Event Approach The Area.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 41 64 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 43 63 40 58 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 37 60 34 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 38 60 33 57 33 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 41 62 33 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 44 65 35 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 44 62 40 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.

Al...
Red Flag Warning From Noon To 7 Pm Cdt Monday For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...
Small Craft Advisory Until 11 Am Edt Tuesday For All Marine Legs.


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