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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Mar 2

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

One Last Deep Impulse Will Swing Through The Region Tonight As A Large Cold Upper Low Begins To Move Into The Western Atlantic.

It Has Been A Cold Day Across Much Of The Region And Promises To Be A Cold Night As Well.

Cloud Cover Hanging On This Afternoon Across The Northern Half Of The Region (As Well As A Few Snow Flurries In Some Spots) Will Gradually Diminish This Afternoon And Evening. While Conditional Snow Probabilities Are Quite High And Though Appreciable Dynamics Are Available For Precip Generation, Moisture Is Extremely Limited And Primarily Confined To A Narrow Layer Between 875mb And 750mb. So, While A Few Light Sprinkles Or Maybe Even Snow Flurries Are Physically Possible This Evening And Through About 06z, The Likelihood Of This Occurring Is So Small, It Does Not Warrant Inclusion In The Forecast At This Time. Even If Some Non-Liquid Precipitation Occurs (And The Best Chance Would Be Across Southeast Alabama And Southwestern Georgia), No Accumulation Or Impact Is Expected.

Temperatures Tonight Are A Little Tricky. It Never Did Warm Out Of
The Lower 40s In The Northern Half Of The Region And Only Managed To Make 50 At Tallahassee. The Cloud Cover Will Complicate The Forecast Tonight As It Will Be A Delicate Balance Of How Much Heat The Cloud Cover Can Keep In Verses How Strong The Cold Advection Will Be. The Magnitude Of The Cold Advection Is Strong Enough That We`ll Likely See A Light Freeze Nearly Everywhere With Lows Generally In The Upper 20s To Low 30s.

So Much For March 1st Being The Start Of Meteorological Spring, As Our Region Will Experience Temperatures 15 To 20 Degrees Below Normal For This Date.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Another Very Chilly Day Is On Tap For The Region On Sunday, With Cold Air Advection Keeping High Temps Down In The Lower To Mid 50s. This Will Set The Stage For Another Possible Light Freeze Across Most Of The Cwa On Sunday Night, Before Temps Finally Moderate Into The Middle 60s On Monday.

Although This Is Still Below Climo, It Will Feel Quite Mild Compared
To The Last Few Days.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Outside Of One More Chance Of Showers And Storms Across The Region On Tuesday And Tuesday Night As A Cold Front Approaches And Passes Through The Cwa, A Fairly Benign Period Is Expected For Much Of The Extended Period With Slightly Below Climo Temps. Although Showers And Storms Are Expected With This Cold Front, The Dynamics And Especially The Thermodynamics Do Not Appear To Be Robust Enough To Produce Severe Weather At This Time. However, This System Will Require Some Monitoring, Just In Case It Strengthens A Bit More Than Expected.

Aviation [Through 18z Sunday].
Vfr Ceilings Between 3500ft And 4500ft Already Affecting Dhn/Aby/Vld
Will Spread To Tlh/Ecp Tonight And Remain In Place Through At Least
09z.

Should See These Ceilings Scatter Around Daybreak And Expect
Clear Skies And Breezy Northwest Winds During The Daytime Hours On Sunday.

Marine...

With Plenty Of Cold And Dry Air Still Rushing Out Over The Coastal Waters, Small Craft Advisory Conditions Are Now Expected To Continue Over The Nearshore Legs Through The Overnight Hours,
With The Advisory Conditions Lingering Over The Offshore Legs Until
Mid-Morning On Sunday.

Winds And Seas Will Then Subside Briefly Through Monday, Before Increasing Out Of The South And Southwest Ahead Of The Next Approaching Low Pressure System On Monday Night And Tuesday.

Fire Weather...

Though Low Relative Humidities Are Expected Tomorrow, Recent Rains Are Keeping Soils Far Too Moist To Support The Issuance Of Any Red Flag Products At This Time.

Hydrology...

Still At Flood Stage For Many Points On The Lower Portions Of The River Basins This Afternoon.

However, The Focus For Flooding Will Slowly Begin To Shift Over To The Suwannee River Basin Where Converging High Flows From The Withlacoochee And Alapaha Rivers Will Take The Suwannee River To Flood Stage From Ellaville On Down River Well Into Next Week.

Flows Are In Recession In The Choctawhatchee Basin, Even At Bruce,
Though It Remains At Major Flood Stage. The Chipola River Has
Crested And Continues To Fall At Marianna With The Crest Occurring
This Morning Further Down River At Altha. Expect Further Rises Down
River Though At Wewahitchka Where The Chipola And Apalachicola Meet.

Flood Level On The Ochlockonee River Continues To Improve With Only Gages At Concord And Havana Indicating Moderate Flooding.

Primary Focus For Flooding Will Shift To The Suwannee River Later
This Upcoming Week. We Should See At Least Minor Flood Stages By
Monday Evening At Ellaville With The Flood Wave Progressing Down
River Throughout The Week. There Is The Possibility From Looking At
Incoming Flows And Crest To Crest Relationships Of Low End Moderate Flood Levels At Ellaville And Possibly Dowling Park By Late Next Weekend. Needless To Say, This Will Be Closely Monitored Throughout The Next Few Days.

---Points That Are Cresting Saturday Afternoon---
Chipola River At Altha - Moderate Flood Stage
Withlacoochee River At Pinetta - Moderate Flood Stage

---Points That Have Crested But Are Still In Flood Stage---
Choctawhatchee River At Caryville - Minor Flood Stage
Choctawhatchee River At Bruce - Major Flood Stage
Ochlockonee River Near Concord- Moderate Flood Stage
Ochlockonee River Near Havana - Moderate Flood Stage
Apalachicola River At Blountstown - Minor Flood Stage
Chipola At Marianna - Minor Flood Stage
Aucilla River At Lamont - Minor Flood Stage
Withlacoochee River Above Valdosta - Minor Flood Stage
Flint River At Bainbridge - Minor Flood Stage

Forecast Confidence Is Average On Eventual Suwannee River Flood
Levels In The Minor To Moderate Category As The Forecasts Depend On Routed Flow From The Withlacoochee And Alapaha Rivers Which Are Still In The Process Of Cresting Upstream From Their Respective
Confluence With The Suwannee River.

For Specific Crest Levels And Timing Of These Crests, Please
Consult Our Ahps Page By Clicking On Rivers And Lakes On Our
Website. This Can Be Found At The Following Web Address.

Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 30 56 30 66 43 / 10 0 0 0 10
Panama City 34 53 38 63 53 / 10 0 0 0 10
Dothan 30 53 31 64 48 / 10 0 0 0 10
Albany 28 53 30 64 43 / 10 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 29 54 29 64 40 / 10 0 0 0 10
Cross City 29 56 28 65 39 / 10 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 33 52 35 60 51 / 10 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...
Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

Freeze Warning From 1 Am Est /Midnight Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am
Cst/ Sunday For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
Walton-Washington.

Ga...
Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...
Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Freeze Warning From Midnight Tonight To 8 Am Cst Sunday For
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...
Small Craft Advisory Until 7 Am Est Sunday For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est Sunday For Waters From
Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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