Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Mar 17

Near Term [Rest Of Tonight]...

Aloft, A Quick Moving Mid/Upper Disturbance Will Continue To Weaken
As It Exits Cooler Shelf Waters This Evening And Moves Across
Southern Ga Before Exiting Our Local Area Overnight.

At Surface, High From Great Basin Extends Sewd To Tn Valley. Another High Is From Wrn Atlc With Ridge Swwd Across Fl And Gulf Of Mex. In Between, Cold Front Noted From Tx Low Newd To The Carolinas.

Increasing Mid And High Clouds Along With Areas Of Light Rain Will Continue To Move Newd From The Gulf Of Mex Across The Forecast Area Decreasing After Midnight With Weak Subsidence In The Wake Of Shortwave Providing A Brief Lull In The Weather.

Will Go With 60-40% N-S Pop Gradient With Diminishing Activity By
06z. Do Not Expect Thunder As Airmass Relatively Stable With Weak
Forcing, And Just Light Precipitation Amounts. With Clouds Mild Mins In The Mid To Upper 50s At Surface, Fog To Develop After Midnight Especially Nw Third Of Area Closest To Front.

Short Term [Monday Through Wednesday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences In Nrn Stream With
Ridging Over Wrn And Ern States And Troughing Over Cntrl States
Anchored By Low Over Nrn Mt/Canada Border.

Srn Stream Marked By Broad Troughing Across All But Coastal Areas. Assocd Shortwave Continues To Dampen As It Exits Newd Of Local Area To Start The Day With Deeper Layer Moisture With Mostly Light To Moderate Rain Exiting From S-N.

At Surface, Low Over Wrn Ky With Cold Front Sewd To Low Over Tx And Wavy Quasi-Stnry Front Ese Across Sc And Into Atlc.

This Places Local Area In Warm Sector.

During The Day, The Nrn Stream Trough Will Become Increasingly
Negatively Tilted As Its Digs Towards Se U.S. With 100+ Knot Jet At
Its Base.

Surface Lows Will Lift From Newd Tx Thru Wrn Ky To Indiana 12z-18z Merging With Second Low Over Great Lakes.

Aided By Next Shortwave Moving Quickly Toward Tn And Lwr Ms Valleys, This Will Strength And Drag Trailing Cold Front Sewd With Increasing Rain And Tstms Ahead Of It.

By Sundown, Amplified Ridging Over Wrn States Allows For Deepening Of Ern Trough. Merged Surface Lows Now Into Great Lakes With Trailing Front Shunted Swwd To Across Nrn Al.

So Altho Main Forcing Will Lift Newd, Local Attention Turns To
Instability In Warm Sector Ahead Of Front.

Sky Guidance Imply That Clouds In Wake Of Departing Shortwave Will Decrease In The First Half Of The Morning Favoring Good Diurnal Heating (Max Inland Temps Rise To Around 80) And Destabilization Allowing Mixing To Increase Winds And Gusts.

Ahead Of Front, Even Though H85 Jet Not Overly Impressive, Expect Increasing Sly Flow Transporting Gulf Moisture Newd Allowing Dew Points To Increase To The Mid 60s Coast To Around 60 Inland.

Scattered Mainly Late Morning Convection Will Increase To Numerous In The Afternoon.

During Overnight Hours, Nrn Stream Trough/Low Will Lift Newd With Front Sweeping Across Local Region Exiting Around Daybreak Tuesday.

Models In Good Agreement That Best Forcing And Deepest Moisture Will Be To Our North Both On Monday Ahead Of The System And At Night With The Front.

Altho Main Threat For Severe Storms Remains From Central Alabama Newd Into Ern Ky During The Monday/Monday Night Time Frame, Spc Currently Has Expanded Slight Risk Swd To Include Portions Of Se Al/Sw Ga With Large Hail Best Bet.

18z Gfs Indices Across Geneva Al Show Steep H7-H5 Lapse Rates (Around 7c), Low Wet Bulb (10k,),0-6km Shear Greater Than 40kts, Sufficient Low Level Moisture (Around 1.4 Inch Pwat), Large Buoyancy In The Model Sounding Hail Growth Zones And Increasing Sfc-H85 Dew Points Which Would Increase Mlcapes. All This Favor Large Hail But Also Strong And Gusty Winds With The Max Threat In The Aftn And Across Se Al/Sw Ga. There Is Also A Threat, Albeit Low For Isolated Tornadoes.

After Exiting, Front Will Slow Down On Tuesday In Response To Upper
Steering Flow Becoming More Zonal. Surface High Will Build From
The Oh And Tn Valleys To The Nrn Gulf Yielding Increasing Nly Flow.
Over Local Region. Skies Will Be Clearing During The Day From West
To East.

Fair Weather Is Expected Thru Wednesday Although Some Increase In Higher Cloud Is Expected Especially Wrn Counties As The Next Shortwave Moves From Srn Plains Towards Gulf States. The Airmass Behind This Front Won`t Be Particularly Cold, With Highs Still In The 70s (Except Upper 60s In Our Northern Zones) And Lows In The 40s.

Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Next Sunday]...

Period Begins With Rather Zonal Flow Over Se Region.

At Surface Low Over Tx With Cold Front Swd And Quasi-Stnry Front Ewd Into Cntrl Gulf. This Front Has Largely Stalled Under Zonal Flow And Is Remnants Of Boundary That Crossed Our Area Early In Short Term Period.

However This Soon Changes. Another And More Potent H5 Shortwave Will Move Over From Srn Plains Wed Night Into Deep South On Thurs Spreading Deep Layer Moisture And Lift Ewd.

As Upper Shortwave Digs Sewd, Surface Low Moves Ewd Across Gulf. This Lifts Gulf Front Nwd To Lie Across Local Area With Overrunning On Fri While Trailing Cold Front Moves Across On Sat.

Potential For Heavy Rainfall And Flooding Concerns Fri Into Sat.

In Its Wake, The Airmass Dries Out With Breezy Winds Sat Night Into Sun.

Aviation...

Showers Will Diminish Throughout The Evening From West To East,
Likely Ending By 3z At And West Of Ktlh And Kaby, And By 6z At
Kvld.

Mvfr Conditions Will Persist Throughout The Evening For Most Terminals, With Ifr Conditions Likely Starting Around 5-6z And Lasting Until At Least Mid-Morning.

Scattered Showers Are Forecast To Return To The Region In The Morning, With Strong Thunderstorms Possible Near Kdhn And Kaby Starting In The Afternoon.

Winds At Times May Gust Up To 25 Kts On Monday.

Marine...

Onshore Winds Will Continue Until Tuesday, When They Will Become
North After A Cold Front Passage.

Winds Could Approach Advisory Levels On Tuesday Then Gradually Diminish Below Headline Criteria Wednesday And Remain Low Through The Rest Of The Work Week.

Fire Weather...

Onshore Flow Will Continue To Bring In Plenty Of Low-Level Moisture,
As Well As Rain Showers And Scattered Thunderstorms Through Tuesday Morning.

Hydrology...

It Doe Not Appear That There Will Be Enough Widespread, Heavy Rain To Send Any Of Our Rivers Back Up To Flood Stage Through At Least Mid Week.

We Are Keeping An Eye On Next Weather System During The Late Week Which Could Be A Prolonged Event And Impact Rivers.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 59 78 61 81 45 / 60 50 40 20 10
Panama City 61 77 61 80 50 / 60 50 30 20 10
Dothan 58 80 57 77 42 / 40 60 50 20 10
Albany 58 79 59 75 42 / 40 60 50 20 10
Valdosta 58 80 59 77 46 / 50 50 40 30 10
Cross City 58 79 62 80 47 / 60 30 30 40 10
Apalachicola 62 74 62 78 53 / 60 50 30 20 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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