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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Jan 6

Near Term [Tonight]...

Upper Shortwave Axis Is Now Even With The Forecast Area, And Will
Move East Of The Area Through The Remainder Of The Overnight
Hours. Subsidence In The Wake Of The Shortwave Should Put An End
To Measurable Rainfall For All But The Far Southeastern Big Bend
By Midnight. The Low- To Mid-Level Cloud Deck Should Push
Southeast As Well. However, The High Clouds Will Likely Linger
Through The Night. Have Made Some Downward Adjustments To The Pops Based On The Latest Guidance And Radar Trends. Otherwise, The Forecast Is On Track Through The Overnight Hours.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Relatively Zonal Flow Aloft Will Provide Little Help In Moving The Stationary Boundary Plaguing The Florida Peninsula.

The Surface Front Is Forecast To Have Little To No Impact On The
Local Area As It Remains Too Far South And Is Forecast To Weaken
Substantially. The Only Effects May Be Some Very Isolated Sprinkles Across Gulf Of Mexico Waters And The Extreme Southeast Big Bend Of Florida.

Rain Chances Only Go Up Slightly On Tuesday Night As The Stationary Boundary Gradually Re-Develops And Lifts North Closer To The Northern Gulf Coast.

Temperatures Will Start The Period Near Average And Climb To Above Average As Ridging Builds In On Tuesday. Some Areas In The
Southeast Big Bend May Even See Some Mid 70 Degree Readings.

Separately, Ample Cloud Cover On Tuesday Night Will Keep Overnight Lows Moderated, In The Middle 50s.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Long Wave Pattern Will Become Less Progressive During This
Period As A Trough Becomes Established Across The Western U.S. And A Downstream Ridge Builds Across The Eastern Seaboard.

An Upper Low Centered Over Northern Mexico At The Start Of The Period Will Lift Across Tx Wednesday And Wednesday Night And Then Open Up As It Lifts Northeast Around The Developing Ridge.

Heights Will Really Begin To Fall Across The Great Plains And Rockies After That. Large Differences Remain Among The Models With Respect To The Surface Frontal System.

The Euro Now Brings It Slowly East, While The Gfs Accelerates It To The North Making Us Wait For The Next System To Approach Days Later.

Considering The Amplitude Of The Pattern By This Time, We Prefer The Less Progressive Solution.

The Resultant Forecast Features A Considerable Warm-Up Locally.
From Wednesday Through Saturday, Look For Temps To Be 10 To 15
Degrees Above Normal By Day And 15-20 Degrees Above At Night.

Pops Will Generally Be In The 20-30% Range Through The Period. We Shaved Back The Mention Of Thunderstorms To Include Only Our
Western Zones On Thursday Afternoon And Evening.

Aviation [Through 00z Tuesday]...

The Outlook Is For Vfr The Next 24 Hours At All Five Terminals.

Some Scattered Showers Are Expected At Ecp, Tlh, And Vld This
Evening, But Only Light Rain Is Expected. Cloud Ceilings Will Gradually Lift With Mostly Clear Skies Expected On Monday.

Marine...

The Gradient Has Started To Tighten As Forecast This Evening,
With Winds Over The Offshore Waters Beginning To Approach Small
Craft Advisory Criteria.

Still Expect A Period Of 20 Knot Winds Overnight Before Conditions Begin To Improve By Mid-Morning Monday. No Significant Changes Planned With The Evening Update.

Fire Weather...

Patchy Light Rain Will Linger Tonight Especially Across The Se Big
Bend.

Drier Air Will Overspread The Region On Monday But Minimum Rh
Will Drop To Only Around 40 Percent.

The Airmass Will Begin To Moisten Again On Tuesday And Red Flag Concerns Are Not Anticipated During The Rest Of The Upcoming Work Week.

Hydrology...

Qpf Will Remain Low Over The Next Several Days, Having Little To
No Affect On Area Rivers And Streams.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 42 61 47 70 56 / 20 0 0 10 10
Panama City 45 60 51 67 58 / 20 0 0 10 20
Dothan 39 57 43 64 53 / 10 0 0 10 20
Albany 37 58 42 63 51 / 10 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 41 61 47 69 55 / 30 0 0 20 10
Cross City 47 64 51 75 58 / 50 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 47 61 54 67 60 / 20 0 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory From 1 Am To 10 Am Est Monday For Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters
From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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