Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Jan 5

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

This Afternoons Regional Rap/Conus Nam Analysis Showed Highly
Amplified Ridging Across The Western Third Of The Country, With A
Broad, Disturbed Trough Across The Remainder Of The U.S.

Embedded Within The Trough Are Several Disturbances, The Main Feature Being The Nearly Closed Low Centered Over The Upper/ Middle Mississippi Valleys. The Shortwave Trough Extends South Through The Lower Mississippi Valley, Into The Southern Plains.
Along The Leading Edge Of The Trough A Line Of Showers Can Be Found Along The Eastern Texas Coastline, Through Central Louisiana.

Closer To The Southeast, A Southern Stream Impulse Is Providing Another Area Of Showers Across The Central Gulf Of Mexico. Through The Remainder Of The Day And Into The Night, The Southern Stream Impulse And Attendant Showers Will Move Closer To The Local Area.

Additionally, A Weak Front Currently Near South Florida Will Gradually Lift North Into The East-Central Gulf Overnight. Isentropic Ascent Associated With This Front Will Combine With The Southern Stream Impulse To Create Another Area Of Showers Moving South To North.

What This Means Locally Is That Rain Will Fill In Beginning Around Sunset, First From The West, And Eventually From The South. Light To Moderate Rain Will Continue Through The Night, Especially Along And South Of A Line From Albany To Destin. Although Rain Will Be Rather Continuous Through The Night, Expect Low Qpf Totals, Around A Quarter Of An Inch For Most Locations.

The Rain And Clouds Will Moderate Overnight Lows Across The Tri-State Region. Expect Middle 40s To Be Common.

Short Term [Sunday Through Tuesday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Remains Fairly Amplified Yet
Progressive. Towards Sunday Morning, The Upper Low Will Continue To Eject Newd And Open Up Into A Trough Over The Great Lakes Region Allowing Local Area High Pressure To Weaken.

Embedded Impulses In The Deep Southwest Flow Along With Abundant Deep Layer Moisture Ahead Of Trough Will Advect Ample Gulf Moisture Newd. Under Weakening Local High, Weak Sw Gulf Surface Low Developing On Gulf Front Tracks Newd And Opens Up And Lift Front Nwd Further Spreading Increasing Isentropic Lift Along The North Side Of Front. Clouds And Rain Will Increase Accordingly Across Our Cwfa From Sw-Ne To Start Sunday.

On Sunday, The Progressive Pattern Will Continue As A Fairly Strong
Shortwave Passes To Our N And Exits The Mid-Atlc Coast Helping To
Dig Upper Trough From Oh Valley Sewd To East Coast By Nightfall.
Assocd Srn Stream Energy Will Shear Newd From Ms Valley Today To
Across Oh Valley On Sunday And Then New England Sunday Night. At
Surface, Ridging Shifting Sewd Over Mo. All This Will Keep Dynamics
Far From Local Region And Begin To Slowly Scour Out Our Moisture
From Nw-Se Mainly On Monday.

All Local Guidance Suggest That Tstms Will Not Develop.

Building High North Of Our Region Will Serve To Stall Gulf Front Over N/Cntrl Gulf. Thus It Will Be Cool And Cloudy, With Showers…With The Deepest Moisture And Best Lift Depicted By The Models To Be Across Our Fl Zones And Coastal Waters.

Expect Highs Only Around 60 Except For Low To Mid 60s Se Big Bend. However, By Aftn, Drier Air Will Begin To Approach Slowly Overspread The Region From Nw-Se And By Evening Decreasing Clouds And Rain Free Conditions Are Expected Across The Nw Half Of Area Extending To Nw 2/3rds Of Area By Sunrise.

We Could See A Very Sharp 0-60% Pop Gradient Into Sunday Night. Likewise, The Pressure Gradient Is Expected To Increase A Little Making Fog Formation Difficult Even Within Light Rain.

By Early Mon, Surface Ridge Moves Sewd From Mo To Ky With Dry Cool Front Kicked Ahead Of It. Building Deep Layer Ridge Over Ne Gulf Region Thru Mon Will Kick Front Back Swd. So Drier Air Should Filter Into The Entire Cwa On Monday With Upper Ridging Building In
Overhead.

Although Low Level Flow Is Expected To Be Offshore On Monday The Increasing Insolation Should Boost Max Temps A Few Degrees Above Seasonal Levels.

By Early Tuesday, The Next Weather Maker, A Deep Low/Trough Will Dig Sewd From Srn Ca Reaching Into Old Mex West Of Big Bend In Tx During Nightfall. As A Result, Local Mid-Upper Flow Will Again Become Swly.

The Surface High Will Move East Of Area With Flow Veering To The East. So Expect Increasing Clouds At All Levels.

Temps Will Rise An Additional 3 To 4 Degrees And A Small Chance Of Rain May Be Re-Introduced.

Min Temps Sun Night Will Be Within A Few Degrees Of Normal Rising To Around 5 Degrees Above Normal Mon Night.

Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Next Saturday]...

The Pattern Will Remain Progressive Until Late This Period. Another
Upper Low Will Be Centered Near The Border Of Northwest Mexico And The Southwestern U.S. At The Start Of The Period. This Low Will
Swing Eastward To Tx And Then Be Pulled Northeastward Across The Mid Ms And Ohio Valleys To The Northeast Or Mid Atlantic.

There Are Timing And Latitudinal Differences Among The Models Typical Of The Mid/Long Range Forecast. That Said, Confidence Is High That Temperatures Will Warm Considerably Over The Forecast Area As Heights Rise Ahead Of The Approaching System. From Thursday Through Saturday, Temps Will Be Well Above Normal, By About 15 Degrees For Lows And About 10 Degrees For Highs.

Timing The Progress Of The Associated Surface Front Will Be A Challenge. We Have Capped Pops At 40% For Now With Highest Pops On Thursday. There Also Appears To Be Enough Potential Instability To Mention Isolated Thunderstorms In The Forecast From Wednesday Afternoon Through Thursday.

.Aviation...

Vfr Conditions Expected To Prevail Through The Night As Light To
Moderate Rain Overspreads All Terminals.

By Early Morning, Sites Should Begin Experiencing Mvfr Ceilings As The Lower Atmosphere Moistens.

Expect Mvfr Ceiling And Light Rain To Prevail Through The Afternoon Tomorrow.

Marine...

A Weak Warm Front Is Forecast To Lift Nwd Over The Gulf But Remain Offshore Tonight Into Sunday.

Assocd Widespread Rain Will Move Sw-Ne And Overspread Local Waters.

Building High Pressure Over Land Beginning On Sunday Will Kick The Front Back Swd Sunday Eve Into Mon With Drier Air Moving Nw-Se Over The Waters.

Winds, Especially Offshore Will Approach Exercise Caution Levels Through This Upcoming Work Week With Periods Of Advisory Level Winds.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected Over The Next Several Days As
The Short Term Remains In A Wet/Unsettled Regime.

Hydrology...

Expected Rainfall Over The Next Several Days Is Only Expected To
Result In Minor Rises On Area Waters.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 45 61 41 64 45 / 60 60 30 0 10
Panama City 48 60 46 66 50 / 60 50 20 0 10
Dothan 45 60 38 62 43 / 50 20 0 0 10
Albany 43 60 37 63 42 / 50 30 10 0 10
Valdosta 44 60 41 65 45 / 60 60 40 0 10
Cross City 49 64 45 69 46 / 70 70 60 10 10
Apalachicola 50 61 48 64 51 / 70 60 40 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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