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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Jan 27

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With The Ridge Of High Pressure Digging In Over Eastern Nc This
Evening, The Projected Moist E-Se Flow Has Developed Over The Cwa.

While Some Fog Is Still Expected To Develop (Especially Near And Over The Gulf Of Mexico, Most Of The Hi-Res Models Are Favoring Low Cigs Over Fog. Therefore, May Tweak The Sky And Wx Grids Slightly, But The Fcst Is Well On Track Otherwise With Very Mild Overnight Lows Only Dropping Into Lower To Mid 50s.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Mostly Tranquil And Unseasonably Mild Conditions Will Continue
Through The Short Term Period.

A Strong Upper Level Trough Will Progress Eastward Into The Central Part Of The Country By Tuesday With Warm Southerly Flow Ahead Of It For The Local Area.

High Temperatures Are Expected To Warm Into The Mid To Upper 70s
Areawide By Tuesday With Lows Well Into The 50s. This Is In Stark
Contrast To The Averages For This Time Of Year Which Are Typically
Mid 60s And Upper 30s.

There Could Be A Few Isolated Showers Across Western Portions Of The Area On Tuesday Afternoon, But The Significant Weather Should Hold Off Until After Daybreak Wednesday.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Models Continue In General Agreement On The Timing Of The Next Frontal System, Which Is Expected To Move Through The Area On Wednesday.

There Continues To Be Some Disagreement On The Strength Of The Upper Level Trough With The 27/00z Euro And 27/12z Nam Keeping More Energy In The Southern Portion Of The Trough With A Fairly Strong System Overall For The Local Area.

Meanwhile, The 27/12z Gfs Is Slightly More Strung Out And Weaker.

If The Stronger Solutions Verify, Then The Threat Of Severe Storms Will Increase Across The Area On Wednesday Afternoon With 60+ Knot 850 Mb Winds Forecast By The 00z Euro And Even Stronger Low Level Winds Forecast By The 12z Nam At The End Of Its Run.

The Weaker Gfs Run Has 50-55 Knot 850 Mb Winds. However, Instability Will Likely Be A Limiting Factor With Poor Mid-Level Lapse Rates Forecast.

The Main Threat Appears To Be A Low-Topped Squall Line With The
Potential For Damaging Winds.

Once The Front Clears The Area Late On Wednesday, Dry And
Seasonably Cool Conditions Will Prevail In Its Wake For The
Remainder Of The Period With No Significant Weather Expected.

Aviation...[Through 00z Tuesday]

East-Southeast Flow Will Continue To Moisten The Local Airmass And Provide The Set Up For A Period Of Mvfr Ceilings Overnight.

Guidance Is In Good Agreement Of Ceilings Lowering Throughout The Night To Near Ifr Levels By Sunrise, Particularly At The Dhn/Ecp Terminals.

Expect These Restrictions To Persist Through The Morning Hours Before The Cloud Deck Scatters In The Afternoon Between 17z And 19z With Vfr Conditions Returning Thereafter.

Marine...

Easterly Winds Will Veer To The Southeast For Monday And Monday
Night And Then Increase To Cautionary Levels From West To East
During The Day Tuesday Ahead Of The Next Frontal System.

Southeast Winds Are Then Expected To Increase Further To Advisory Levels For Tuesday Night And Wednesday And Veer To South.

Winds Will Then Remain Elevated For A Short Time After Frontal Passage Wednesday Night Before Diminishing Below Headline Criteria By Thursday Afternoon.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidities Are Expected To Stay Fairly High Until Thursday When A Drier, Colder Air Mass Will Overtake The Region After A Cold Front Passage Wednesday.

At This Time, It`S Too Early To Issue Any Watches, But A Fire Weather Watch May Need To Be Issued For Portions Of Northwest Florida Later This Week For Thursday.

Hydrology...

The Upcoming System On Wednesday Is Expected To Be Progressive And Bring A General Half Inch To Inch Of Rain Across The Area.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 54 77 53 77 61 / 0 10 10 10 20
Panama City 57 73 60 74 65 / 0 10 10 20 30
Dothan 53 73 56 77 65 / 0 10 10 10 40
Albany 50 75 55 78 62 / 0 10 10 10 20
Valdosta 53 78 55 81 59 / 0 10 10 10 10
Cross City 53 78 55 79 58 / 0 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 57 71 57 72 64 / 0 10 10 10 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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