Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Jan 26

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Frontal Boundary Will Stall Over The Region Overnight With The
Cooler Air Just Making Its Way Into The Northeastern Counties.

Overnight Lows Will Reflect This, With Lows In The Lower To Mid 40s
Across The North And Lower To Mid 50s In Florida.

Despite The Presence Of The Front, No Precip Is Expected Overnight.

May See Some Patchy Fog Once Again South Of The Boundary, Especially Near Any Of The Prescribed Burns In The Area.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The Weakening Cold Front, Which Will Be Pushing Southward Through The Region Tonight, Will All But Dissipate Across The Region On Sunday With Just Some Lingering Cloudiness In Its Wake.

With Upper Level Ridging Quickly Building In From The Southeast, Temperatures Will Continue To Be Quite Warm And Average Several Degrees Above Climatology.

High Temps On Sunday Will Range From The Upper 60s To The Middle 70s, And From The Lower 70s To Near 80 In Some Spots On
Monday.

Low Temps Will Range From The Mid To Upper 40s Over The
Interior On Sunday Night (With Lower 50s Near The Coast), And
Moderate To The Lower To Mid 50s On Monday Night (With Some Upper 50s Near The Coast).

Furthermore, Despite Some Lingering Moisture Along The Front And Its Remnants, The Chances For Any Measurable Rainfall Through The Period Will Be Very Slim At Best.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Next Saturday]...

The Period Will Begin With Strong Upper Level Ridging Over The Se
U.S., With 500 Mb Heights Likely Between 584 And 586 Dm Across The Cwa On Tuesday.

With Quite Warm 850 Mb Temps And A Sfc Ridge Well To Our East, High Temps At The Sfc Could Reach The Upper 70s To The Lower 80s.

Wed. Should Be Unseasonably Warm As Well, With The Actual Max Temps Dependent On How Quickly The Next Cold Front Approaches The Region From The Nw.

The Global Models Are Now Also In Fairly Good Agreement With The Timing Of This Front, With Slight Differences Accounting For A Either Wed. Night Or Thu. Morning Passage.

Another Important Change To This Current Fcst Will Be The Increasing Possibility For Some Strong To Potentially Severe Thunderstorms Developing In Advance Of This Front, As The
Models Have Become More Energetic With This System And Are Carving Out A Steeper Upper Level Trof.

If The Low Level Instability Is Sufficient, The Strong Dynamics And Kinematics Could Make This A Potentially Interesting Event, And It Will Be Monitored Closely Over The Next Several Days.

After The Cold Front Pushes Through, There Is Now Good Model Consensus That Much Cooler And Drier Air Will Dominate The Remainder Of The Period.

Aviation...[Through 18z Sunday]

At Our Srn Airports, Vfr Will Prevail Through The Period.

At Aby, A Low Level Mvfr Cloud Deck Is Slowly Clearing Up.

As A Weak Cold Front To Our North Pushes Sward, Lower Ceilings
May Be Seen Later Tonight At Our Nrn Airports.

Around 00 Utc Lower Clouds May Appear Again At Aby, But Coverage Will Be Less Than Bkn.

Around 02 Utc, Mvfr Cigs Are Expected In Dhn, But Cigs Should Rise
By Around 06 Utc.

Marine...

Winds Will Remain Light And Seas Will Remain Low Through The
Remainder Of The Weekend As A Weakening Cold Front Dissipates Over The Marine Area.

Winds And Seas Will Begin To Increase Out Of The Southeast Early In The Week.

Cautionary To Advisory Level Conditions Are Expected Out Of The South And Southwest Ahead Of The Next Cold Front During The Middle Of The Week.

Fire Weather...

A Weak Cold Front To Our North Will Push Through Overnight, Bringing With It Slightly Drier Air.

In Fl However, Relative Humidities Will Not Dip To 35 Expect Maybe In Jackson County.

By Monday, Relative Humidities Will Increase Again.

The Next Drop In Humidity Will Be Mid To Late Next Week Behind The Next Cold Front.

Hydrology...

No Rises Are Expected On Area Rivers Over The Next Few Days, With
The Next Chance For Widespread Measurable Rainfall Not Until Wednesday Into Thursday.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 51 75 49 76 53 / 10 0 10 10 10
Panama City 55 71 55 72 59 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 47 71 49 73 53 / 10 0 10 10 10
Albany 44 69 45 74 52 / 10 0 10 10 10
Valdosta 48 71 49 77 53 / 10 0 10 10 10
Cross City 50 76 51 78 52 / 10 0 10 10 10
Apalachicola 55 69 55 69 59 / 10 0 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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