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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Jan 19

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A Mixture Of Several Mid-Upper Level Cloud Layers, Combined With A
Weakening Surface Ridge Should Lead To A Mild Night Tonight.

The Latest Guidance Has Increased Low Temperatures A Degree Or Two Across The Board. Forecast Lows Were Nudged Up Slightly, And Are Now In The Low-To-Mid 40s In Most Locations.

Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Little Overall Change In The Overall Conus Longwave Pattern Has Been Noted In Last 24 Hrs.

Pattern Is Highlighted By Ridge Over Wrn Most States And Weak Cyclonic Flow Within Broad Trough From Great Basin And Rockies Ewd To New England/Canadian Maritimes.

At Surface, High In Atlc Well Off Mid-Atlc Coast With Ridge Axis Sewd To Another Strong High Over Ga/Sc Region Then To Another High Over Se Tx Dominates Se Region Weather. Low Over Nrn Great Lakes With Cold Front Wsw Across Nrn Plains. This Area High Will Weaken Somewhat Into Sunday As A Weak H5 Impulse Within Slowly Lifting Sbtrpcl-Jet Moves From Wrn Gulf To Across Cntrl Gulf Region Bringing A Small Increase In High Clouds.

The Pattern Will Change Sunday Thru Tuesday As Trough Begins To
Amplify And Advance Towards East Coast Reaching Hudson Bay And New England And Amplifying Swd In Se Region Before End Of Period.

A Deep Layer Low Develops Over Nrn Most Great Lakes Into Canada Which Then Races Newd Into Canadian Maritimes By Sun Night. In Its Wake. A Strong High Over The Lwr Ms Valley Will Be Reinforced By A Surge Of Arctic Air Moving South From Canada. This Will Push A Weakening Backdoor Front Rapidly Sewd Into Ga/Al Sunday Night Then Across Our Area Late Monday.

In Its Wake, A Large Area Of Cold High Pressure Overspreads The Local Region With Ridge Building In And Moderate Nly Flow By Sunrise Tues. Models Shows That Most Of Arctic Air Will Remain Well N Of Our Area, Still This Will Herald A Noticeable Cooling Trend By Tuesday.

No Pops Thru Period.

Max Temps Sunday Will Range From Upper 60s Se Al To Low 70s Se Big Bend, Dip To Mid 60s To Around 70 On Monday Then In Wake Of Front Plummet To From Lows 50s To Around 60 On Tuesday.

Expect Min Temps Sunday Night From Near 40 Se Al To Mid 40s
Se Big Bend Dropping On Monday Night To Around 30 Se Al To Mid 30s Elsewhere.

Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Friday]...

The Latest Global Model Runs Are Consistent With Previous Runs And Each Other, Showing A Progressive Large Scale Weather Pattern Over The Conus.

The Period Begins With A High-Amplitude Long Wave Trough Over The Eastern Conus Through Wednesday Morning (And Cold Air Advection Over Our Region), Followed By Rapid Deamplification Of
500mb Heights Late Wednesday And Thursday (With An Accompanying Warming Trend For Our Region).

Another Broad, High-Amplitude Trough Will Rapidly Develop Over The Eastern Conus On Friday. With So Much Dry, Stable Continental Air Across The Southeast, Widespread Precipitation Appears Doubtful.

Probably The Most Significant Local Weather Impact Will Be The Possibility Of A Freeze Wednesday And Thursday Mornings.

Aviation [Through 18z Sunday]...

Vfr Conditions Will Prevail With Light Winds.

Potential For 2 Sct-Bkn Layers - One Around 6000 Ft, And Another Around 25000 Ft.

Marine...

Winds Continue To Decrease And Will Remain Low Into Monday.

By Monday Night And Tuesday, Northerly Winds And Seas Are
Expected To Increase Again As A Dry Cold Front Moves Southward
Through The Region.

Fire Wx...

Relative Humidity Values Will Stay Above Red Flag Criteria Through The Week.

.Hydrology...
River Stages Remain Below Action Stage, And This Is Unlikely To
Change Any Time Soon.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 41 70 41 70 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 47 68 46 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 40 68 41 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 39 69 39 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 41 69 42 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 45 72 45 71 36 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 47 67 44 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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