Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Jan 12

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Main Concern Overnight Is The Potential For Dense Fog.

The Current Thinking Is That Fog Will Gradually Expand First Over The
Western Half Of The Forecast Area With The Eastern Half Seeing
Areas Of Fog Develop Late In The Night. Most Of The Guidance
Indicates This Scenario, Despite Some High Cloudiness Streaming
Across The Area From West To East.

Conditions Will Be Monitored In Case A Dense Fog Advisory Becomes Necessary Across Portions Of The Area.

Short Term [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]...

The Amplified Upper Level Trough To Our West Will Edge Eastward
Slowly, But Is Expected To Lift Northward Some By Monday Night.

This Will Keep Surface Frontal Movement Slow And Keep The Bulk Of
The Rainfall To Our North And West Through The Short Term.

There Are High Pops (Around 60%) For Our Se Al Counties Tomorrow Night And Tuesday, But Qpf Is Expected To Be Low.

The Front Is Likely To Stall With The Slow Movement Of The Upper Level Forcing, So Se Al Has The Highest Pops Through The Short Term Period.

Temps Will Remain Unseasonably Warm With Deep Ridging Over Us And Max Ts Will Remain In The Upper 70s To Around 80 Ahead Of The Front.

In Se Al And The Fl Panhandle, Temps Will Likely Only Reach The
Low 70s On Monday When Rain And Cloud Cover Will Likely Prevent A
Large Amount Of Daytime Heating.

Min Ts Sunday Night Will Be In The Upper 50s To Lower 60s, Similar To What We`ve Been Seeing.

By Monday Night, Min Ts Should Be Slightly Cooler, In The Mid-50s.

With The Ridge Aloft And Moist Low-Level Airmass, Dense Fog Will
Remain Possible Monday Night.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The Extended Forecast Remains Rather Low Confidence At This
Point, Particularly After Tuesday When Global Model Disagreement
Becomes More Pronounced.

The Period Begins With An Inverted Surface Trough And Quasi-Stationary Front Situated Near Or Just Beyond The Nw Extent Of Our Area, And A High-Amplitude Mid And Upper Level Trough That Is Established Well West Of Our Area.

The Resultant Deep Sw Flow Is A Pattern That Typically Inhibits
Substantial Cold Air Advection, And Thus The Surface Front Should
Be Slow Moving. There Is Not Much Difference Between The 12.00z
Operational Runs Of The Cmc, Ecmwf, And Gfs Through Tuesday Night - The Front Gradually Pushes Into Our Area With Increasing
Cloudiness And Showers.

After That, The Ecmwf And The Cmc/Gfs Diverge. The Ecmwf Closes Off An Upper Level Low Over The Rio Grande Valley As A Consequence Of A Strong Digging Shortwave On The Backside Of The Larger-Scale Trough.

Meanwhile, The Gfs/Cmc Deamplify The Pattern More Rapidly. The Result Is A Difference Between A Continued Cloudy Forecast With Occasional Light Showers (Ecmwf), Or Clearing Skies With Cooler Temperatures And A Breezy North Wind (Gfs/Cmc).

It Should Be Noted That About Half Of The Gfs Ensemble Members Depict Something Similar To What The Ecmwf Is Forecasting. With Low Confidence, The Forecast Was Weighted Heavily Towards Hpc Guidance And The Previous Forecast.

Aviation...[Through 00z Monday]

Another Challenging Taf Package Tonight, With The Bulk Of The Numerical And Hi-Res Guidance Once Again Indicative Of Widespread Dense Fog.

Since This Has Been Over-Fcst By The Models The Past Few Nights, Decided On Using A Blend, With Persistence Weighted Fairly Highly (Except At Vld Where The Bubble Ridge Protected Them From The Poor Conditions Last Night).

Nevertheless, This Should Result In A Mix Of Very Low Cigs And/Or
Vis At The Terminals Which Should Culminate In Deteriorating
Conditions Down To Lifr Levels At All Locations Overnight And Into
Sunday Morning.

Durations Of Ifr Or Lower Levels May Vary As Well, With Ecp Already At Ifr And Tlh At Mvfr Levels As Of 00 Utc. Still Expect A General Sw To Ne Progression Of The Fog And Low Clouds, With The Ci Canopy Aloft Not Expected To Inhibit Development In Any Significant Way.


South-Southeast Flow Is Expected To Continue Through Tuesday.

Winds Speeds May Occasionally Reach Exercise Caution Levels During This Period, But Advisory Conditions Are Unlikely.

As The Cold Front Exits The Region Tuesday Night, Offshore Flow Will Develop And Speeds May Increase To Cautionary Levels, But Decrease Again By Wednesday Night.

Fire Weather...

Continued Southerly Flow Will Keep Humidity Levels High And Fire
Weather Concerns At A Minimum Through At Least The Middle Of The
Next Work Week.


No Appreciable Rainfall Amounts Are Expected Through The Next Few
Days And The Rivers Will Remain Low.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 54 79 59 77 55 / 10 10 20 30 20
Panama City 61 74 63 73 61 / 10 20 40 40 30
Dothan 60 79 62 71 56 / 10 20 50 60 40
Albany 56 81 62 77 56 / 10 10 40 50 30
Valdosta 55 80 57 79 55 / 10 10 10 20 20
Cross City 53 80 54 80 53 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 59 71 62 69 61 / 10 10 20 30 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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