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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Feb 9

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep Layer Ridging Will Slide East And We Will See Increasing Mainly High Level Cloudiness Overnight. Min Temps Will Be In The Mid To Upper 40s Inland And Lower 50s Along The Coast.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The Unsettled Period Will Begin Sunday Afternoon And Continue Well
Into The Long Term Period As A Series Of Northern Stream Impulses
Amplify The Pattern Across The Eastern Conus.

The Period Begins With The First System Moving Across The Mississippi River Trailing A Rather High Amplitude Ridge. This Stout Ridge Will At Least Temporarily Slow The Southward Progression Of This System As The Primary Energy Departs Quickly Into The Northern Stream Through The Great Lakes.

The Net Result Will Be Increasing Cloudiness Late Tomorrow With Gradually Increasing Chances Of Rain Into Monday.

Model Guidance Then Begins To Diverge Monday Afternoon With The
Exact Placement Of The Lingering Frontal Boundary Left Behind As A
The Primary System Moves Through New England.

The Only Model That Has Been Relatively Consistent In Placement Throughout The Last Couple Of Days Has Been The Euro. And That Continues To Be The Case Through The 09/12z Run This Afternoon.

Monday Night And Into Tuesday, The Next Impulse Will Move East Of
The Rockies And Into The Mid South, Leading To A Surface Wave Of
Low Pressure Developing Along The Stalled Boundary Along The Gulf
Coastal States.

With Most Of The Energy Hanging Back Until After 12z Tuesday, Expect The Last Part Of The Short Term Period To Show Escalating Pops In The Western Areas Particularly After Midnight.

The Potential For Severe Weather Seems Low At This Time, Even
Though Some Weak Instability Will Be Present Across The Area.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Depending Exactly On Where The Boundary Is At By The Beginning Of
The Long Term Period On Tuesday, Will In Large Part Determine The
Area Of Maximum Rainfall For This Event.

The Last Couple Of Operational Euro Runs And The Mean Of The Gfs Ensembles From 08/00z Indicate The Area Of Maximum Rainfall Is Most Likely To Set Up Across Southern Alabama And Into Middle Georgia, Effectively Cutting Our Area In Two.

It Appears That Within This Area An Easy 2 To 4 Inches Of Rainfall Will Be Possible With Isolated Higher Totals Up To 5 Inches Through Wednesday.

Needless To Say, Rain Chances For Tuesday And Wednesday Are Quite High Across The Region With Pops Up To 90 Percent In Our Northern Zones Tuesday Tapering Down To 60 Percent In The Southeastern Areas.

The Severe Weather Potential At This Time Also Appears Limited,
However, Should A More Energetic Wave Materialize Than Is Currently Depicted In The Guidance, Some Strong To Severe Storms Would Be Possible, Particularly Tuesday Afternoon Across The Florida Big Bend And Perhaps Into South Central Georgia As The Warm Sector Is Pulled Inland.

The System Is Expected To Exit The Region Wednesday Night.

Thereafter, There Seems To Be Increasing Uncertainty In The
Forecast.

The Last Two Runs Of The Euro Preferred A Series Of Waves Moving Across The Central Gulf Of Mexico And Central Florida Thursday Through Saturday And Featuring A Less Amplified Northern Stream, Thus Keeping Our Region On The Northern Fringes Of Systems Moving Across The Gulf.

The Gfs Prefers To Shift Toward A Much Colder Solution With What Would Be Our First Real Arctic Blast Of This Mild Winter Season.

For Now, Stayed Closest To A Blend Of The Available Guidance, Showing Cooler Temperatures And Lower Rain Chances Late In The Period.

While Below Climo Temperatures Are Expected For The Latter Portion Of The Forecast Period, Should The Gfs Verify, Significant Negative Departures From Normal Would Be Realized By Saturday.

Aviation [Through 06z Sunday]...

High Level Clouds Will Increase And Thicken Overnight. Low Level
Clouds Will Also Move In From West To East And We May See Mvfr Cigs At Most Or All Sites Around Or Shortly After Daybreak.

Winds Will Be Around 10 Kts From The Southeast On Sunday.

Marine...

Winds Are Expected To Increase Tonight To Advisory Levels As A
Storm System Moves Across The Mississippi River Valley.

These Unsettled Conditions Are Expected To Continue Into Monday When A Frontal Boundary Moves Into The Marine Area. As The Boundary Stalls On Monday Evening, Winds Will Diminish.

Though Stormy Conditions Are Expected Through Midweek, The Next Increase In Winds And Seas Is Not Expected To Occur Until Late In The Period When A Stronger Frontal Boundary Moves Through The Marine Area.

Fire Weather...

Low Level Moisture Along With Rain Chances Return To The Region
Beginning Sunday And Continue Through The Middle Of The Upcoming Week With No Red Flag Conditions Expected.

Hydrology...

As Discussed In The Short And Long Term Portions Of The Forecast,
There Is Potential For Locally Heavy Rainfall Across The Northern
Portions Of The Forecast Area Monday Through Wednesday.

Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches With Isolated Higher Totals Near 5 Inches
Could Cause Localized Flooding During The Event Followed By
Elevated Flows On Area Rivers As Runoff Is Directed Downstream.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 47 73 59 73 57 / 0 10 10 40 50
Panama City 54 66 62 71 59 / 0 10 20 40 50
Dothan 48 69 62 71 53 / 0 20 40 50 60
Albany 45 70 61 72 53 / 0 10 40 50 60
Valdosta 45 73 58 75 57 / 0 10 10 40 40
Cross City 45 77 56 78 57 / 0 10 10 10 30
Apalachicola 53 64 61 70 60 / 0 10 10 30 40

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...

Small Craft Advisory From 4 Am To 4 Pm Est Sunday For Coastal
Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory From 4 Am Sunday To 4 Am Est Monday For
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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