Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Feb 3

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface High Pressure Will Slide East And Settle Over The Local
Area By Daybreak.

Aside From A Few Cirrus Streaming From West To East Well Ahead Of The Next Developing Low Pressure System, Skies Should Be Clear Overnight.

Clear Skies, Light Or Calm Wind And A Very Dry Airmass Will Allow Temps Once Again To Drop Into The Lower To Mid 30s Away From The Immediate Coast.

A Few Of The Normally Colder Locations May See A Light Freeze But Most Areas Should See Min Temps In The 33-36 Degree Range.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Cool High Pressure Will Build Across The Area For Monday, In The
Wake Of Tonights Clipper-Type Frontal Passage.

This Reinforcing Airmass Will Likely Keep High Temperatures Monday Afternoon A Couple Degrees Cooler Than Today. Otherwise, Dry Conditions Are Expected Through The Afternoon.

Conditions Will Change Rapidly Monday Night As The Surface High
Slides Quickly East And Allows For A Brief Period Of Return Flow
During The Overnight Hours.

A Weak Surface Trough Is Then Forecast To Develop Along The Northern Gulf Coast As Another Shortwave Drops Into The Mean Eastern Trough.

Expect To See Enough Isentropic Lift Late Monday Night, For Scattered Showers To Reach The Panhandle And Se Alabama.

By Tuesday Morning, The Guidance Becomes Much More Divergent.

The Latest Gfs Has A Much More Pronounced Sfc Trough/Warm Front Across The Area During The Day, Which Leads To A More Concentrated And Heavier Region Of Rainfall Across The Panhandle And Big Bend.

The Remaining Guidance Is Much More Diffuse With The Boundary And Weaker With The Upper Support, Generating Lighter But Possibly
More Widespread Rainfall.

With The Gfs Currently The Outlier In Terms Of Qpf And Coverage, Have Leaned Towards The Ecmwf For The Forecast On Tuesday. This Yields A Broad Area Of Likely Pops Over The Western Half Of The Area. However, Rainfall Totals Should Remain Rather Light.

With The Distinct Possibility That The Boundary May Linger Across
The Region Through Tuesday Night, Will Keep Some Chance Pops In
The Forecast Across The Area.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Period Begins On Wednesday Morning With Some Model
Disagreement About The Amplification Of The Trough Ridge Pattern.

The Gfs And Ecmwf Both Start With A Trough Over The Nern Us, And A Ridge Over The Mid-West And A Trough Over The Swrn Us West With A Short Wave Impulse Near Sw Tx.

The Trough To The West Moves To The Central Us By Thursday Morning And The Ern Us Over Thursday Night To Friday Morning.

The Ecmwf, However, Is More Amplified Than The Gfs, So It Is Also More Aggressive With Rain Chances.

The Timing By Friday Is Also A Little Off Between The Two Models.

The Gfs Its Weaker Trough Further East By Friday Morning, But Moves The System Through More Slowly.

By Saturday Morning, Both Models Show Another Upper Level Ridge Over The Sern Us And A More Amplified Trough Over The Sw Us.

The Amplified Trough To The West Will Move Into The Mid-West Us By Sunday Morning.

The Ecmwf Has A Stronger Low Once Again, And Higher Rain Chances Ahead Of The System.

The Forecast Used Is A Blend Of The Gfs, Ecmwf, And Hpc Guidance
With A Little More Weight Toward The Gfs And Its Timing Of The
System Moving Through On Thursday.

Neither Of The Models Are Forecasting Particularly Colder Air Masses To Enter Our Region Through The Forecast Period.

In Fact, Max Temps Will Be In The Upper 60s To Mid 70s (Warmest In The Ern Fl Big Bend), Continuing The Above Average Temperatures We`ve Had So Far This Winter.

Lows Will Also Be Above Normal, Staying In The Upper 40s To Mid 50s Through The Period.

Aviation...[Through 00z Tuesday]

Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Through The Period With Light Winds.

A Gradual Increase In High Cloudiness Is Expected On Monday.

Marine...

Light Winds Will Become Onshore By Monday Afternoon As A Surface
Trough Of Low Pressure Develops Over The Western Gulf.

This Trough Will Lift Into The Waters By Tuesday, With Winds Becoming Light And Variable.

Southeasterly Winds Will Increase By Thursday As Another Area Of Low Pressure Approaches The Waters.

Fire Weather...

We Will See Long Durations Of Critically Low Relative Humidity
Across All Of Our North Florida Zones On Monday. However, Ercs Are
Only Forecast To Be At Or Above 35 For Leon And Wakulla Counties.

Therefore, We Will Upgrade The Fire Weather Watch That Is Currently In Place For These Two Counties To A Red Flag Warning.

After Monday, No Fire Weather Concerns As Low Level Moisture
Increases Along With Rain Chances For Most Remaining Days This
Coming Week.

Hydrology...

Despite The Approach Of Several Weak Storms Systems This Week,
Rainfall Totals Are Expected To Remain Low, With Minimal Impact On
Area Rivers And Streams.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 34 65 45 68 49 / 0 0 20 60 30
Panama City 42 64 54 67 55 / 0 0 30 60 30
Dothan 37 62 48 66 48 / 0 0 40 60 30
Albany 35 60 44 66 46 / 0 0 20 50 30
Valdosta 33 62 42 69 51 / 0 0 10 20 30
Cross City 33 67 40 70 50 / 0 0 10 20 30
Apalachicola 39 63 52 66 56 / 0 0 20 60 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...Red Flag Warning From 1 Pm To 7 Pm Est Monday For Coastal
Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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