Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Feb 23

Near Term [Tonight]...

The 18 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Finally Showed At Least Some
Slow Eastward Movement Of The Front That Had Been Nearly
Stationary Across Our Northwest And Western Zones The Past Day Or
So.

The Front Extended From The Western Gulf Of Mexico To A 1011 Mb Low South Of Pensacola, Then East-Northeastward Off The Sc
Coast. This Front Will Continue Moving Very Slowly Southeastward
Overnight, Accompanied By Bands Of Heavy Rain And Isolated
Thunderstorms. While A Severe Thunderstorm Cannot Be Ruled Out, Any That Occur Would Be Marginal And Very Isolated.

The Consensus Qpf Through 12 Utc Sunday Is Generally 1 To 1.5 Inches, With Isolated Heavier Amounts Possible. This Rain Band Will Be Moving Into A Region Where The Soil Can Better Absorb Heavy Rain, But We Decided To Keep The Flash Flood Watch Up For Portions Of The Forecast Area Anyway.

Short Term [Sunday Morning Through Monday]...

The Front Will Stall To Our South On Sunday, Reducing Our Rain
Chances, But Not Completely Eliminating Them (Especially In Fl).

This Front Will Lift Slowly North As A Warm Front Sunday Night And
Monday, Becoming The Focus Of Ample Rain Across Our Region During Monday. Isolated Supercell Thunderstorms Will Also Be Possible, But Instability Remains The Big Question.

There Are A Lot Of Large Scale Weather Features That Appear Similar To Some Of Our Severe Weather Outbreaks Of The Past, Including Favorable Kinematics. However, The Fact That All Of The Global Models Generate So Much Qpf Along The Warm Front On Monday Could Limit Destabilization, And Could Reduce The Likelihood Of Surface Based Storms.

A Squall Line Will Likely Develop Monday Night And Move Quickly Eastward Across The Area, Providing Even More Rain And An Additional Severe Storm Threat.

Perhaps Things Will Become More Clear On Sunday When The Event
Draws Within Range Of The High-Res Models. (At Least We Might See If There Is Enough Buoyancy For Strong Updrafts).

One Thing That Does Seem Clear Is That More Heavy Rain Is Coming, And We Expect Widespread Qpf Of 2 To 4 Inches Monday And Monday Night.

Of Course There Will Likely Be Isolated Higher Amounts.

While Most Of Our Forecast Area Could Normally Handle Such
Amounts, There Has Been So Much Rain Recently That We Expect A Lot Of Runoff And Flooding With This Next System.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Next Saturday]...

The Latest Gfs And Ecmwf Remain In Fairly Good Agreement With
Respect The Large Scale Weather Pattern.

Both Solutions Forecast Gradual Phasing Of The Southern And Northern Streams, As They Gradually Develop A Deep Long Wave Trough Over The Eastern Conus.

Of Course They Differ On Details, But There Are Two Main Themes For This Portion Of The Forecast Period...Minimal Precipitation Chances, And Progressively Cooling Temperatures.

After The Strong Cold Front (Likely Accompanied By Flooding Rains And Perhaps Severe Storms) Exits East Of Our Region Tuesday Morning, There Will Be Some Time For Our Rivers (Many Of Which Will No Doubt Be In Flood) To "Process" The Heavy Rains From This Weekend And Monday.

There Is A Chance For Freezing Temperatures Later Next Week Or Into The Weekend, But There Will Be Plenty Of Time To Assess That Threat.

Aviation [Beginning 20z Saturday]...

Cigs Will Be Mvfr At Tlh And Vld With The Early Afternoon Line Of
Storms.

Later, Between The Very Moist Environment And Higher Pressure Behind The Front, We Anticipate Fog Development At All Sites, Except Dhn, Which Could Get To Lifr.

The Br Should Mix Out Fairly Quickly When Daytime Heating Starts.

Ecp May Be At Mvfr Cigs Tomorrow, However, As A Warm Front Over The Gulf, Associated With Our Next System, Could Cause Some Lower Clouds Along The Coast.

Marine...

With The Lighter Winds We Expect Through Sunday, Seas Will Diminish To Low Levels.

Advisory Conditions Will Be Possible By Monday As South Winds Increase Ahead Of A Strong Cold Front.

Once The Cold Front Passes Monday Night Or Tuesday, Several Rounds Of High Winds And Seas Are Likely For The Remainder Of Next Week.

Fire Weather...

Heavy Rains Will Greatly Inhibit Burning Through At Least Monday
Night Or Tuesday Morning.

Progressively Drier, Cooler Air Will Infiltrate The Region For The Remainder Of The Work Week, Allowing Fuels To Gradually Dry.

Hydrology...

A Stationary Front Is Currently Lined Up From Destin, Fl Northeast Across Extreme Southeast Alabama And East Northeast Across
Southern Georgia To Savanna, Ga.

Rainfall Amounts Today Have Ranged From 1 1/4 Inches In The Florida Panhandle, To 1/2 To 3/4 Inches In Southeast Alabama And Southwest Georgia.

Minor River Flooding Continues Along The Choctawhatchee River At
Newton, Al. And Caryville, Fl.

Moderate Flooding Is Forecast To Occur At Bruce.

This Forecast Is Based On The 48 Hour Qpf.

Additional Rainfall Amounts Monday Night And Tuesday Could Possibly Bring The Choctawhatchee River At Bruce To Major Flood.

Minor Flooding Continues Along Chipola River At Altha, The
Apalachicola River At Blountstown And The Ochlockonee River At
Thomasville.

Along The Flint River Basin Moderate Flooding Is Forecast At The
Kinchafoonee Creek At Dawson. Preston And Leesburg Remain At Action Stage. If Rainfall Amounts Exceed The 48 Hour Qpf Forecast, Those Locations Will Likely Reach Minor Flood Stage.

The Shoal River Near Mossyhead Is Forecast To Reach Moderate Flood Stage Late Tonight.

The Second Round Of Heavy Rainfall Is Forecast To Begin Sunday
Night.

An Upper Level Trough Will Into The Se Us And Causes Another Surface Low To Form With More Rainfall Possible For Our Forecast
Area Sunday Night Through Monday.

Models Indicate This Second System Will Exit The Area Monday Night.

The First Round Of Heavy Rain May Serve As A `Primer` For The Region, So Flash Flood Guidance Will Be Lower Considering The Recent Large Amounts Of Precipitation.

Note...Hydrology Predictions Depend Heavily Upon Location Of
Rainfall. The Forecasts Here Are Based On Model Precipitation Output And Are Subject To Many Errors. As Described Above, The Models Do Not Have The Best Hold So Far On The Location Of The Heaviest Precipitation. We Will Continue To Monitor The Situation As The Front Approaches.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 58 73 59 70 58 / 90 30 70 90 90
Panama City 58 70 62 71 58 / 80 40 80 90 90
Dothan 50 71 57 68 52 / 50 20 80 100 100
Albany 50 72 56 66 54 / 60 10 70 100 90
Valdosta 57 72 57 71 59 / 90 30 60 90 90
Cross City 63 74 61 75 65 / 70 50 40 50 90
Apalachicola 60 68 62 70 61 / 90 40 60 70 90

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories…

Fl...
Flash Flood Watch Through Sunday Morning For Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

Ga...
Flash Flood Watch Through Sunday Morning For Baker-Ben Hill-
Calhoun-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-
Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...
Flash Flood Watch Through Late Tonight For Geneva-Houston.

Gm...
Dense Fog Advisory Until 1 Am Est Sunday For Apalachee Bay Or
Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl
Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To
Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee
River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee
River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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