Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Feb 17

Near Term [Tonight]...

00 Utc Surface Analysis Shows A 1027 Mb High Centered Over North
Central Florida. Light Southerly Flow Was Beginning Across The
Central Gulf Coast States And Even Into The Western Florida
Panhandle.

With The Ridge Of High Pressure Expected To Move Further Eastward Into The Western Atlantic Tonight, The Light Southerly Flow Will Continue To Spread Eastward. As A Result, Temperatures In Our Western Counties Will Not Be Quite As Cold As Areas Further East.

In Fact, The Latest Temperature Trends Match Very Closely To The Previous Forecast And A Light Freeze Looks Like A Good Bet In These Areas. Further East Across South Central Georgia And Into The Florida Big Bend, Calm Conditions Should Persist Through Much Of The Night Allowing For Near Optimal Radiational Cooling Conditions, Yielding Another Hard Freeze. Urban Centers, Like Tallahassee, Will Likely Only Drop To 30 To 34 Degrees By Morning.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The Large Scale Fairly Amplified Longwave Pattern Commences With A Brief Transition Across Ern States From The Upper Level Trough To A Low Amplitude Ridge With Assocd Height Rises. Father Upstream, Ridge Dominates Wrn, And Trough Covers Cntrl States. At Surface, High Centered Along Sc/Ga Coast With Ridge Dominating Local Region Yielding Some Gulf Return, Veering Wind To Ese And Assocd Rapid Warm Up From W-E. Farther Upstream, Low Over Wrn Great Lakes With Cold Front Ssw To Low Over Ok With Front Wsw Into Tx Panhandle.

By Sunrise Tuesday, Aided By Vigorous And Fast Moving Shortwave That Reaches Great Lakes, Ern Upper/Surface Ridge Pushed Into Wrn Atlc To Be Rapidly Replaced By A Significant Upstream Trough With Low Over Ern Great Lakes That Will Span The Ern Part Of The Country.

At The Surface, Great Lakes Low Lifts Newd To Canadian Border With Cold Front Ssw To Low Over Srn Al. Clouds Will Increase From W-E As Winds Veer To Swly Then Wly. Front Races Across During The Day And With Lack Of Instability (Limited Time To Recover
Cooling/Drying) And Upper Support, Showers And Mainly Isolated
Non-Severe Thunderstorms Expected.

Will Go With 30-0% Mainly Predawn Nw-Se Pop Gradient Mon Night Increasing To 60-0% Tuesday Morning, 30-50% Sw-Ne Pops In Aftn Then A Small Chance Of Evening Rain Tues Eve Across Ne Tier Ga Counties.

As Far As Rainfall Amounts, Expect A Half An Inch Al/Ga And Less Over Fl.

This Frontal Passage Is Not Expected To Exacerbate The Ongoing River Flooding.

More Seasonable Temperatures Will Return Monday And Monday Night During The Short Term Under The Influence Of The Aforementioned Upper Ridge. Expect Highs In The Low To Mid 60s In The Afternoon, And Low To Upper 40s Overnight.

With The Area In The Warm Sector To Commence Tuesday, Breezy Sw Then W Flow Will Help Highs Rise To The Middle 60s Se Al Up To The Mid 70s Across The Se Big Bend.

In Wake Of Front, Cold Dome Of High Pressure Begins To Build In From The Nw. Noticeably Drier And Cooler Offshore Flow Overspreads The Local Area From Nw-Se Beginning In The Aftn And Continuing Thru The Night.

Lows Tues Night Dip To Upper 30s Se Al To Mid 40s Se Big Bend.

Highs Wed From Around 60 Se Al To Near 70se Big Bend.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Flow Will Be Rather Zonal Across The Gulf Coast States To Start
The Period With Southwesterly Flow Aloft Developing For The End Of
The Week.

After A Brief Dry Period, A Front Will Approach From The Northwest On Friday And Reach Wrn Counties At Night.

As This Front Parallels The Upper Flow And It Is Progressively Impacted By Strong H5 Ridging Over Wrn Atlc And N/Cntrl Fl, Its Southeastward Progressed Will Be Slowed With The Boundary Stalling Over The Forecast Area Saturday Into Sunday Providing A Prolonged Period Of Clouds, Sct Showers And Mainly Isold Tstms.

Slight Chance Pops Will Re-Enter The Forecast As Early As Thursday
With 40-20% N-S Pop Gradient Fri Thru Sun.

Temperatures Will Be Mild Through This Entire Period. Lows Upper 30s To Lower 40s Wed Night Increasing To Generally Mid To Upper 50s Thurs Thru Sat Nights. High Temps From Upper 60s To Mid 70s Thurs Then Low To Upper 70s Fri Thru Sun.

Aviation...[Through 00 Utc Tuesday]

Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail Throughout The Period.

Southeasterly Winds Of 10 To 15 Knots Are Expected At Most Sites
On Monday.

Marine...

A Brief Period Of Light Winds And Seas Will Last Into Monday
Afternoon As High Pressure Builds Over The Northern Gulf.

Then Will Increase Once Again Due To Approaching Low/Front.

Expect Exercise Caution Levels Late Monday Afternoon Increasing To
Advisory Levels Monday Night.

They Will Briefly Decrease Into Tuesday Afternoon Before Increasing Again To Advisory Levels In The Wake Of A Cold Front.

Headline Criteria Are Forecast Through Late Thursday Night Before Winds And Seas Again Decrease To Below Headline Levels.

Fire Weather...

At 18z, The Rh Was At 25% At Dhn And 21% At Lor. Therefore, The
Warning Will Remain In Place For Southeast Al For Low Rh Durations.

Looking Ahead To Monday, It Will Remain Quite Dry. Although Rh Will
Not Be Quite As Low As Today, It Will Be Well Below 35% For Several
Hours. Dispersion Indices Are Forecast To Be Over 75 Across Much Of The Fl Panhandle. Updated Erc Values From This Afternoon`s
Forecast For Monday Did Not Rise Above 35, However, The Forecast
Values Are Still Near Criteria.

Since The Area Of Higher Dispersion Could Expand, Given Breezy Conditions Expected Tomorrow, Will Leave The Fire Weather Watch In Place For Monday.

Rh Will Be Higher On Tuesday As A Cold Front Crosses The Area.

However, Another Very Dry Day Is On Tap For Wednesday.

A Wet And Unsettled Pattern Will Commence Later In The Week.

Hydrology...

Most Rivers Are At Or Past Peak Crest Levels From The Heavy Rainfall Earlier This Week.

We Should Start Seeing Several River Levels Fall Below Flood Stage Over The Next Day Or Two With No Measurable Rainfall In The Immediate Forecast.

The Choctawhatchee River At Caryville Should Dip Below Flood Stage Tuesday Night.

Downstream At Bruce, The River Has Crested A Few Tenths Of A Feet Below Major Flood Stage And Is Now In Slow Recession. The River Will Not Drop Below Moderate Flood Stage At This Point Until Thursday Night.

Stages On The Lower Flint River And Ochlockonee River At
Thomasville Appear To Be Cresting Now With No Impacts. Slow Rises Are Expected Downstream Of Thomasville On The Ochlockonee River, But Again No Impacts Are Expected.

The Apalachicola At Blountstown Will Drop Below Flood Stage On Tuesday.

The Chipola At Altha Has Crested Just Below Flood Stage.

This Little River At Hahira And Withlacoochee At Valdosta Have Also Crested.

For The Latest Stage And Forecast Information, Please Refer To Our
River Flood Warnings And Statements, Or Go To Our Ahps Site On The Internet, At:
Http:/Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 25 63 45 72 42 / 0 0 10 40 10
Panama City 35 63 54 68 46 / 0 0 20 60 10
Dothan 31 64 48 67 37 / 0 0 30 60 10
Albany 26 63 42 67 37 / 0 0 20 50 10
Valdosta 24 63 40 71 42 / 0 0 10 50 30
Cross City 21 65 42 73 46 / 0 0 10 40 20
Apalachicola 31 62 53 69 48 / 0 0 10 40 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Hard Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Monday For Coastal
Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon- Madison.

Freeze Warning Until 10 Am Est /9 Am Cst/ Monday For Calhoun-
Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

Fire Weather Watch From Monday Morning Through Monday Evening
For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

Ga...

Hard Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Monday For Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Freeze Warning Until 10 Am Est Monday For Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

Al...

Freeze Warning Until 9 Am Cst Monday For Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
Henry-Houston.

Gm...None.


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