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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Feb 16

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As Winds Lessen This Evening, Clear Skies And Cold Air Advection
Should Support A Fairly Rapid Temperature Drop Just After Sunset.

Some Areas, Especially Into The Suwannee River Valley And Vicinity,
Should See Their First Hard Freeze Of The Season.

Although 12z Mos Guidance Came In A Degree Or Two Warmer For Most Of The Sites Tonight, We`ve Only Tweaked Mins A Bit And Maintained Freeze Warnings As Previously Forecast.

Even Along The Coast We Can Expect Near Freezing Temperatures Early Sunday Morning.

The Possibility Of Some Patchy Frost Is Also Possible, But This Will Likely Only Occur In Outlying Areas Across North Florida Where Winds Calm Near Dawn.

We Could See The Coldest Night Of The Season For Some Locations. The Lowest Temperature At Tlh So Far This Winter Is
26f Which Occurred On Dec 22. Will Go With A Forecast Of 25f At
The Tlh Airport With This Package.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The Long Wave Trough Will Lift Northeast Allowing The Pattern To
Quickly De-Amplify Across The Southeastern Conus. The Flow Will Remain Progressive With The Next Trough Pivoting Across The Mississippi Valley By Monday Night.

At The Surface, The Center Of The Arctic High Will Move East Across The Forecast Area On Sunday.

It Will Be A Rather Chilly Day, But With Less Wind Than Today And
Plenty Of Sunshine. Afternoon High Temps Will Only Reach The Lower 50s In Most Areas.

With The High Centered Over North Fl Sunday Night, The Suwannee Valley Will See The Coldest Temperatures. Another Hard Freeze Is Expected In This Area And Areas As Far West As Leon County Could See Another Hard Freeze. We Will Be Posting A Hard Freeze Watch For Most Of The Inland Fl Big Bend And Adjacent Counties In Ga With A Light Freeze Watch Across The Remainder Of Our Inland Zones.

As Heights Rise, Temps Will Rebound Quickly On Monday Reaching The Low To Mid 60s.

A Much Milder Night Is On Tap Monday Night With Lows In The 40s.

Slight To Low Chance Pops Will Be Maintained Across Most Zones For Showers Developing Ahead Of The Next Front.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The Flow Will Be Rather Zonal Across The Gulf Coast States To Start
The Period With Southwesterly Flow Aloft Developing For The End Of
The Week.

A Cold Front Will Cross The Region On Tuesday Afternoon And Evening.

Pops Will Range From Likely Northwest To Slight Chance Over Dixie Co.

After A Brief Dry Period, Another Front Will Approach From The Northwest On Friday.

As This Front Parallels The Upper Flow, Its Southeastward Progressed Will Be Slowed With The Boundary Stalling Over The Forecast Area On Saturday.

Slight Chance Pops Will Re-Enter The Forecast As Early As Thursday With Chance Pops For Most Areas From Friday Through Saturday.

Temperatures Will Be Mild Through This Entire Period.

Aviation [Beginning 19z Saturday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Through The Period With Gusty Northwest Winds Diminishing Quickly This Evening. Patchy Frost May Occur Overnight.

Marine...

A Solid Sca Event Is Ongoing Across The Marine Area.

Seas Will Peak Around 9 Ft Well Offshore This Evening.

Both Winds And Seas Will Gradually Subside From Later Tonight Into Sunday Morning.

An Easterly Surge Back To Cautionary Levels Is Expected On Monday.

Winds Will Remain Elevated As They Veer To Onshore Ahead Of An
Approaching Cold Front.

The Front Will Cross The Waters Tuesday Evening.

Offshore Winds Will Increase To Cautionary Levels Behind
The Front Late Tuesday Night Into Early Wednesday.

Easterly Winds At Cautionary Levels Are Expected Wednesday Night Into Thursday.

Fire Weather...

Very Low Rh Will Be The Main Story Sunday With Min Rh Dipping Below 20% For Many Locations.

Fortunately Winds Will Taper Off Significantly Tonight With Only Modest Northerly Winds Of 7-12 Mph Expected At Most Locations Tomorrow Correlating With The Min Rh.

With Erc Values Likely Remaining In The 20s, Conditions Should
Remain Marginal For Any Fire Weather Watches/Warnings.

Hydrology...

Most Rivers Are At Or Past Peak Crest Levels From The Heavy Rainfall Earlier This Week.

Exceptions Are Farther Downriver Along The Choctawhatchee River Near Bruce And Along The Withlacoochee River North Of Valdosta Where Rises Will Continue Into The Evening/Overnight Before Peaking.

High Water Is Also Occurring Along Some Rivers And Streams In South Central Georgia That Do Not Have Official Forecast Points.

We Should Start Seeing Several River Levels Fall Below Flood Stage Over The Next Day Or Two With No Measurable Rainfall In The Immediate Forecast.

For The Latest Stage And Forecast Information, Please Refer To Our
River Flood Warnings And Statements, Or Go To Our Ahps Site On The Internet, At:

Http:/Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 25 54 25 64 44 / 0 0 0 0 20
Panama City 33 53 37 63 53 / 0 0 0 0 20
Dothan 28 53 32 65 48 / 0 0 0 0 30
Albany 25 52 28 63 43 / 0 0 0 0 20
Valdosta 25 52 26 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 25 54 22 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 32 52 34 61 51 / 0 0 0 0 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Hard Freeze Warning From 2 Am Est /1 Am Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am
Cst/ Sunday For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington.

Hard Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday
Morning For Gadsden-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Madison.

Freeze Warning From 4 Am Est /3 Am Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/
Sunday For Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

Ga...

Hard Freeze Warning From 2 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For Baker-Ben
Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Baker-Ben Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-Lee- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Hard Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday
Morning For Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Thomas.

Al...

Hard Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 8 Am Cst Sunday For Coffee-
Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Freeze Watch From Sunday Evening Through Monday Morning For
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...

Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est Sunday For Apalachee Bay
Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River
Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To
Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee
River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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