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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Feb 10

Near Term [Through Monday]...

Updated At 1035 Pm Est-

Ah, The Best-Laid Plans. The Line Of Discrete Supercells Over
Southern Al & Ms This Afternoon Quickly Morphed Into A Qlcs And
Propagated Into The Northwest Third Of Our Forecast Area, Causing
Severe Wind Gusts.

At This Time It Appears That The Reports Were 'Marginally" Severe, With Lots Of Downed Trees And Power Lines, And An Asos Gust To 50 Kt Near Fort Rucker.

This Was A Bit Of A Surprise, As Surface Analyses And Nwp Guidance (Even High Resolution Guidance) Indicated That There Would Be Too Little Sbcape To Support Severe, Surface-Based Severe Storms. There Was Probably Something Going On In The Meso Or Even Sub-Mesoscale To Drive These Storms, As I`ve Seen Weaker Storms Form In More Unstable Airmasses Than This.

As For The Remainder Of Tonight, It Appears That The Qlcs Has
Weakened, Which Is Expected Given The Nocturnal Cooling And The
850 Mb Jet Being Forecast To Lift Northeastward Away From Our
Area. Still, We Can`t Rule Out An Isolated Severe Storm Or Two
Overnight. We Expect Most Of The Rain To Remain North Of A Line
From About Tifton To Panama City, And Some Localized Flooding Will
Be Possible. (At Least One Of The Cam Runs Forecast Nearly 5
Inches Of Rain Overnight, But That Would Be In Narrow Bands).

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

At The Beginning Of The Period, Showers And Thunderstorms Are
Expected To Be Nearing The Western Portion Of The Forecast Area,
But They Should Be In A Weakening State As The Primary Forcing Is
Lifting To The North Of The Region.

Model Guidance Has Been In Reasonably Good Agreement That The Frontal Boundary With This System Will Stall Across The Forecast Area By Monday Evening And Remain Nearly Stationary Into Tuesday Evening. With The 12z Cycle This Afternoon, There Appears To Be More Uncertainty With The Far End Of The Short Term Period As The Next Mid Level Impulse Is Predicted To Move Slower Out Of The Rockies, Resulting In A Potential Longer Period Of More Unsettled Weather For Our Region.

The Primary Concern Throughout The Short Term Period Will Be
Locally Heavy Rainfall With The Stalled Frontal Boundary In Place
Across The Area.

This Boundary Will Provide A Focus For Showers And Isolated Storms Through The Short Term Period, Especially Across Southern Alabama And Georgia. Rainfall Amounts Through Tuesday Evening Could Easily Approach 2 To 3 Inches With Isolated Higher Totals.

Severe Weather Appears Less Likely As Instability Will Be Quite
Limited, Especially By Tuesday As Only A Small Portion Of The
Forecast Area Will Be In The Warm Sector.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The Long Term Forecast Is Now A Little More Uncertain Due To The
Slower Progression Of The Upper Level System Seen In The 12z Model Cycle. The 00z Euro Was Weighted Heavier In Today`s Long Term Forecast, So Should The Slower Progression Of The 12z Gfs Pan Out, Unsettled Weather Could Continue Into Thursday Before The Eastern Conus Pattern Amplifies Enough To Kick Out The Frontal Boundary That Had Been In Place Across The Region.

Model Guidance, However, Is In Reasonably Good Agreement, That With The Amplification Of The Pattern Late In The Period (Fri-Sun), That Cooler Than Normal Weather Will Be Returning To The Region.

The Gfs Is Much More Amplified And Colder Indicating Lows Potentially In The Low To Mid 20s By Sunday Morning. Both The 10/00z And 10/12z Euro Are Less Intense With The Incoming Cooler Airmass, So Weighted The Forecast In This Direction, Which Still Produces Well Below Normal Temperatures By Sunday.

Aviation [Through 18z Monday]...

Gusty Southeast To South Winds Will Continue Until Around Sunset.

Cigs Will Lower To Mvfr Levels This Evening And Gradually Lower To
Ifr/Lifr At All Sites By Daybreak.

Showers And Thunderstorms Will Spread From Northwest To Southeast With The Best Chances At Dhn And Aby Before 12z And Remaining Taf Sites By 18z.

Marine...

Small Craft Advisory Conditions Will Continue Through Tonight
Across The Western Waters Before Diminishing By Sunrise On
Monday As The Gradient Weakens With The Approach Of The Front.

Winds Will Remain Below Headline Criteria Despite Occasional Storms Until Wednesday When An Area Of Low Pressure Will Move Across The Gulf.

Winds Will Increase To Near Advisory Levels At This Time.

Winds Will Shift To Offshore On Thursday And Then Diminish Into The
Weekend.

Fire Weather...

A Cold Front Will Approach The Forecast Area Tonight And Move Across On Monday.

Associated Showers And Thunderstorms Along With Breezy And Gusty Onshore Winds Will Keep Relative Humidities Well Above
Critical Levels.

Another Strong Cold Front Will Move Through The Tri-State Region Late Tuesday Into Early Wednesday.

In Its Wake, The Airmass Will Dry Out But Humidities Should Remain Above Red Flag Levels Through The Rest Of The Work Week.

Hydrology...

Expect 2 To 4 Inches Of Rain Across The Region Starting Tonight
Through Wednesday With The Heaviest Totals Across Southern Alabama And Georgia.

Isolated Higher Totals Up To 5 Inches Are Possible.

Widespread Flooding Is Not Anticipated.

However, Rises On Rivers Are Anticipated With This Rainfall, Particularly Further To The North Where The Combination Of Local Runoff And Routed Upstream Flows Lead To A Few Locations Reaching Minor Flood Stage Later This Week.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 58 74 58 65 57 / 20 70 50 60 90
Panama City 63 71 58 64 58 / 40 70 50 60 90
Dothan 63 68 52 61 53 / 70 80 80 80 90
Albany 60 69 52 59 53 / 60 80 80 80 90
Valdosta 58 75 55 62 56 / 10 70 50 60 90
Cross City 55 76 57 72 57 / 0 40 30 30 70
Apalachicola 62 71 60 66 60 / 20 70 50 50 90

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 4 Pm Est This Afternoon For Coastal
Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To
20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From
20 To 60 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory Until 4 Am Est Monday For Coastal Waters
From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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