Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Dec 8

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A Slow Moving North-South Line Of Weak Showers Will Continue To
Pester The Panama City Beach Area This Afternoon. However Little
Pops Are Expected Overnight Tonight Anywhere Across The Area.

Webcams Near The Franklin County Shores Indicate Fog Offshore
Already (More On This In The Marine Discussion), And Satellite
Confirms An Area Of Stratus From Near The Apalachichola River, To
Apalachee Bay, And Into The Lower Suwannee River Valley.

As The Boundary Layer Quickly Decouples With A Loss Of Sunlight, And Winds Become Very Light Or Calm, The Stratus Should Lower And Fog Is Expected To Develop Rapidly In The Evening Hours In The
Aforementioned Areas.

Probabilistic Guidance And A Consensus Of Raw Visibility Projections On High-Resolution Models Indicate This Initial Development As Well, With The Fog Slowly Expanding Inland Through The Rest Of The Night. Dense Fog Was Added To The
Grids, But An Advisory Was Not Issued Yet. As Trends Become More
Apparent This Evening, An Advisory Will Likely Be Needed.

The Low Clouds And Dense Fog Will Keep Overnight Lows Moderated, In The Middle 50s For Most Spots Away From The Coast.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

On Sunday We Will Remain Under The Influence Of High Pressure As
An Advancing Cold Front Remains Well Northwest Of Our Area.

Despite Some Isolated Showers Today Under A Similar Pattern, The
Majority Of Model Guidance Keeps Measurable Qpf Along The Florida
Atlantic Coast, And Therefore We Went With A Dry Forecast For Now.

The High Temperature Forecast Was Based On A Consensus Approach, But If The Dense Fog And Stratus Takes Longer To Erode Than Models Are Currently Anticipating, Highs Could Be More In The Upper 60s To Low 70s, Versus The 74-79 That Is Currently Forecast.

The Front Will Begin To Approach The Area On Monday, Although Most
Models Do Not Bring The Actual Front Into Our Area Until Very Late
In The Day Or Into Monday Night.

Therefore, Pops Were Kept Fairly Low During The Daytime Hours.

The Front Should Be Weakening As It Pushes To The Gulf Coast And The Associated Cyclone Ejects Northeast Towards The Canadian Maritimes.

Therefore, Any Rain That Does Make It Into The Area Monday Night Should Be Fairly Light.

Pops Were Capped At 50% For Now.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Latest Guidance (Especially Slower Ecmwf Verifies) Hints At
Surface Wave Developing Over Or Just Off Carolinas At This Time
Which Would Slow Down Or Even Stall Exit Of Front Beyond I-75
Until At Least Tues Eve Commencing A Prolonged Period Of Frontal
And Post Frontal Rain Into Early Wed.

Even If Rain Ends Earlier, As Upstream High Builds Sewd And Pushes Front Out, In Its Wake Post Frontal Clouds And Sprinkles Likely Persist Until H85 Trough Exits Early Wed, Especially Ern Counties.

Still Even With These Clouds, Caa Will Yield A Cooling Back Down To Seasonal Normals Thru Wed Night Before Temps Begin To Rise Again.

In Addition To Impact Of Front, Additional Mid Level Disturbances
Will Take A Similar Path Across The Gulf Coast States As Initial
Impulse Wed Through Wed Night And Another One Likely On Sat.

Models Not In Good Agreement On Timing Or Amount Of Rain, So Confidence Not High But Seem To Lean Towards The First Impulse Bringing A Good Chance Of Rain To Area Especially If Front Lingers, Then Kicks Carolina Low Out Into Atlantic Dragging Front Well South Of Cwfa With Subsidence And Somewhat Drier Air In Its Wake Thurs Into Sat.

Then, The Last Impulse Appears Weaker With Only A Slight Chance Of Rain. But Even If They Are All Too Bullish, And Even With Somewhat Drier Air Overspreading Region, They All Reflect A Gloomy Extended Period With Milder Nights And Cooler Days.

Will Go With Mid-High Sct Pops Tues, Wdly Sct-Low Sct Tues Night,
Mid-High Sct Wed And Wed Night, Nil Pops Thurs Thru Fri Night And
Wdly Sct Pops On Sat.

Under Persistent Clouds Min Temps To Remain Around 10 Degrees Above Normal Thru Wed Night Dropping To 2-5 Degrees Above Normal Rest Of Period.

Max Temps Will Remain Around Normal Tues Thru Thurs Before Inching Up A Few Degrees Above Climo Fri And Sat. (Avg Inland Min/Max Is 41/64 Degrees).

Aviation [Through 18z Sunday]...

Conditions Have Scattered Out To Vfr But Expect To See Rapid Drop In
Vsbys/Cigs To Ifr Then Lifr Overnight At All Aerodromes In Dense Fog.


We Went With A Marine Dense Fog Advisory (For Visibility At Or Below 1 Mile) East Of Apalachicola Based On A Combination Of Evidence From Webcams, Satellite, And Surface Observations.

We May Also See Some Dense Fog Develop Along The Immediate Coast West To Destin After Dark, Or In Some Of The Protected Bays And Waterways.

Therefore, The Advisory May Need To Be Expanded, But Confidence Is
Lower In Fog Over The Waters West Of Apalachicola At This Time.

Winds Will Remain Fairly Weak Until The Approach Of A Front On
Monday And Into Tuesday.

Fire Weather...

Rh Will Remain Above 35% Through At Least Tuesday, With Increasing Rain Chances On Monday And Tuesday, So The Fire Weather Concerns Are Minimal For The Next Four Days.


River Stages Continued To Be Well Below Action Stage, And This Is
Likely To Continue Through At Least The Weekend.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 55 77 56 75 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
Panama City 58 73 62 74 60 / 10 10 10 20 40
Dothan 55 74 59 74 51 / 10 10 10 30 50
Albany 54 76 56 75 56 / 10 10 10 20 50
Valdosta 55 80 56 78 59 / 10 10 10 20 40
Cross City 56 79 55 77 61 / 10 10 10 20 30
Apalachicola 58 71 61 72 63 / 10 10 10 20 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Gm...Dense Fog Advisory Until 10 Am Est Sunday For Waters From
Apalachicola To The Suwannee River Entrance Out 60 Nm.

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