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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Dec 29

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Low-Level Cold Air Advection Pattern Will Continue Tonight, With
Temperatures Expected To Fall Quickly In The Evening.

A Widespread Freeze Is Expected, Except For Right Along Apalachee Bay, And In The Eastern Florida Big Bend.

Raw Model Guidance Tends To Add Value To Minimum Temperature Forecasts In These Caa Situations Where Winds Stay Up Overnight (Should Be Around 4-7 Knots Most Of The Night). The Consensus Of Raw Model Guidance Places A Freeze Almost Exactly Where Mos Guidance Does, Which Increases Confidence.

The Entire Freeze Watch Area Has Been Converted To A Freeze Warning, Plus Madison County Has Been Added. Some Of The
Areas Along The Suwannee River Further South May Briefly See The
Temperature Hit 32 Degrees Or So, But In Order To Meet Locally-
Defined Freeze Criteria This Would Have To Occur For At Least 2
Hours (Which Is Not Expected).

Forecast Wind Chills Get Into The 20s By Daybreak Across The Entire Area, With The Lowest Values Around 21 In Se Alabama. This Is Close To Wind Chill Advisory Criteria, But Given The Marginal Nature Of The Values We Will Hold Off For Now.

Either Way, It Looks Like A Very Chilly Night Across The Area, Even Down To The Beaches.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The Very Progressive Pattern Will Continue Into The First Part Of
The New Week. For Sunday And Monday, The Region Will Be Between
Storm Systems, As A Modest (And Progressive) Upper Ridge Slides
East Over The Deep South. The Region Will Still Be On The
Downstream Side Of The Ridge (Surface And Aloft) For Sunday, So
Temperatures Will Remain On The Cool Side, With Highs In The Lower To Mid 50s.

For Sunday Night, The Surface Ridge Is Forecast To Slide Just North
Of The Forecast Area, With Reasonable Radiational Cooling Conditions Setting Up. Primary Factors Working Against The Radiational Cooling Will Be The Potential For High Clouds Moving Into The Region Ahead Of The Next Storm System, As Well As Limited Decoupling Given The More Northern Position Of The High.

With These Factors In Mind, Expect Lows To Drop To Right Around Freezing Monday Morning.

However, Given The Uncertainty, And Likely Short Duration Of Any
Freezing Temperatures, Have Elected Not To Issue A Freeze Watch At
This Time.

The Airmass Will Moderate And Moisten Monday And Monday Night As
Deep Layer South To Southwest Flow Develops Ahead Of The Next Storm System. At This Time, It Appears That Any Rain With This System Will Hold Off Until After Sunrise On Tuesday.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The Period Is Forecast To Begin With Zonal Flow On The Toes Of An
Approaching, Weak, Shortwave Entering The Southern Plains With
High Pressure Just Beginning To Break Down At The Surface.

As The Shortwave Grazes The Gulf Coast, Surface Cyclogenesis Will
Commence, And The Entire System Will Move Into The Southeast On
Wednesday. It Will Take Another Shortwave Developing In The
Southern Plains Early On Thursday To Completely Clear Out The
Remnants Of The Aforementioned System As Another Surface Low And Attendant Front Pass Through The Tri-State Area Thursday Through Early Friday.

Instability Will Be Greatly Lacking With Both Systems And Only Showers Are Expected.

Near Average To Slightly Below Average Temperatures Are Expected To Dominate The Extended Range Forecast.

Aviation [Through 18z Sunday]...

Some Lingering Mvfr Ceilings Will Be Possible At Dhn And Aby
Through The Early Evening, But The Outlook Is For Vfr Elsewhere
And Thereafter With Clearings Skies And Lighter Winds.

Marine...

The Gradient Will Remain Tight Over The Coastal Waters Overnight,
Keeping Winds And Seas Elevated At Cautionary Levels.

Winds And Seas Will Gradually Subside Late Sunday Morning Into The Afternoon.

Moderate Winds And Seas Will Continue Through At Least Midweek.

An Area Of Low Pressure Over The Gulf May Increase Conditions Back To Headline Levels By Late Wednesday Or Thursday.

Fire Weather...

Afternoon Minimum Rh On Sunday Should Be 25-32% Across The Entire Area, But Light Winds And Low Dispersions Will Preclude Any Red Flag Conditions.

Additionally, Recent Wetting Rains Have Lowered Erc Values Well Below 20. After That, Increasing Moisture And Rain Chances Will Keep Fire Weather Concerns Limited.

Hydrology...

No Flood Concerns Expected From The Recent Rainfall.

Models Continue To Indicate A More Significant Rain Event Around New Years That Might Last A Day Or Two. Though The Amounts Do Not Look Enough To Generate A Flood Event, This Could Be A Welcome Rain Across The Drought Affected Areas.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 31 55 31 63 49 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 31 54 40 62 56 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 31 52 33 61 51 / 0 0 0 10 20
Albany 28 53 31 63 48 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 30 53 31 65 47 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 33 56 32 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 33 54 42 61 56 / 0 0 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...Freeze Warning From 1 Am Est /Midnight Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am
Cst/ Sunday For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-
Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

Ga...Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
Turner-Worth.

Al...Freeze Warning From Midnight Tonight To 8 Am Cst Sunday For
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est Sunday For Apalachee Bay
Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River
Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To
Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee
River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee
River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From
Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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