Near Term [through Tonight]...
An area of rain, with some embedded isolated thunderstorms, is still
ongoing from just north of Lake Pontchartrain into north Georgia and
the western Carolinas. The area of rain is situated north of an
ill-defined low-level convergence zone, most likely a composite of
existing outflow boundaries and a weak pressure trough. Thus, most
of the precipitation can generally be considered "post-frontal", likely being maintained by broad isentropic ascent over a shallow, cool, near-surface air mass.
Model guidance shows very little movement in the aforementioned convergence zone overnight, with the area of low-level ascent remaining fairly stationary to the north and west of our forecast area.
The RUC also focuses the best 850mb moisture transport well west of our area. Thus, the PoPs were kept highest in the northwest part of our area, with a dry forecast for southeastern areas (FL Big Bend). Any rain showers east of a PAM-FZG line should be relatively brief and light - associated with weak low-level WAA across much of the area.
A strongly forced line of showers (very little to no lightning with the convection) has been slowly moving southeast over southern Alabama, and by 0230z was approaching the NW corner of our area.
Several observation sites have observed wind gusts of 30-40 knots,
and this may continue for another couple hours over the far western
portion of our area.
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