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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Apr 6

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Tranquil Conditions Will Continue Through Tonight With Just A Few
Passing High Clouds As High Pressure Remains The Dominate Feature.

Seasonable Low Temperatures Are Expected, Mainly In The Upper 40s To Lower 50s Across The Area.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Overall, The Short Term Period Will Be Quiet.

High Pressure Will Build At The Surface And Aloft Just East Of The Florida Peninsula Starting On Sunday. This Will Result In Partly To Mostly Sunny Skies With Temperatures Gradually Warming Each Day.

Highs By Monday Should Easily Be In The 80s Across Inland Areas.

With Southeasterly To Southerly Winds Blowing Over The Still Cool Shelf Waters In The Mid To Upper 60s, Temperatures Within Several Miles Of The Coast Will Be Noticeably Cooler, With Highs Only In The Low To Mid 70s.

Overnight Lows Will Be Just A Few Degrees Above Normal, And Noticeably Warmer Than The Past Couple Of Days.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The Initial Portion Of The Long Term Period Looks Be Relatively
Tranquil In Our Region As A Deep Layer Ridge Remains In Place Either Over Or Just East Of The Florida Peninsula.

The Pattern Across The Conus Will Begin To Amplify By Thursday As A Trough Spreads East Out Of The Rockies.

There Are Some Obvious Timing Differences Between The 06/06z Gfs And The 06/00z Euro. Current Flow Pattern Across North America And Climatology Tend To Support A Slower Evolution Of The Pattern
Through This Upcoming Week. As A Result, A Forecast Solution
Weighted Closer To The Euro Makes More Sense In The Thursday Through Saturday Timeframe. While The 06/00z Gfs Ensemble Mean Tends To Be On The Faster Side Of The Available Guidance Envelop, Considerable Temporal And Spatial Spread Amongst Ensemble Members Casts Considerable Doubt On The Gfs Solution For This Period As Well.

Essentially, Rain Chances Will Begin To Increase By Thursday
Afternoon With A More Substantive Chance Of Showers And
Thunderstorms By Friday.

While This System May Be A Potent Severe Weather Producer In The Mid Mississippi River Valley, The Bulk Of The Dynamical Forcing Will Be Shifting Rapidly Through The Ohio Valley And Thus Greatly Limit Our Organized Severe Potential With This System.

At The End Of The Period, Drier Conditions Return With Temperatures
Likely To Remain Very Near Or Just Above Climatology.

Aviation [Beginning 18z Saturday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail Through The Period With Winds Mainly Out Of The East And Southeast.

Marine...

No Headlines Are Expected Through The Period.

East-Southeasterly Flow Tonight Will Result In A Brief Surge In Winds To Around 15 Knots Before Diminishing On Sunday.

With High Pressure Nearby, Expect Winds Throughout The Forecast Period To Remain In The 10 To 15 Knot Range.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For The Next Several Days.

Moisture Is Expected To Gradually Increase With Relative Humidity
Values Above Critical Levels.

Hydrology...

No Rainfall Is Anticipated Until At Least Thursday Of The Upcoming
Week.

Rivers Will Remain In Recession With The Aucilla Likely Dropping Below Flood Stage On Sunday Morning.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 50 79 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 56 74 58 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 50 79 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 49 79 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 49 79 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 49 80 53 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 56 72 58 75 60 / 0 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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