Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Apr 27

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

At Upper Levels, We See A Split Flow Regime With The Westerlies
Confined To Southern Canada And The Northern U.S.

Farther South, A Slow Moving Upper Low Is Traversing The Central Part Of The Nation And Was Centered Over Missouri At 18z.

Downstream, We See Short Wave Ridging Over The Southeast. Surface Analysis Shows High Pressure Centered Over New England Ridging Southward To Fl And The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. Low Pressure Is Moving Slowly East Across Arkansas With A Cold Front Trailing Southwestward Across Tx To The Big Bend Portion Of The Rio Grande Valley.

Satellite Shows A Healthy Field Of Cumulus Across The Southern And Western Portions Of The Forecast Area. Local Radars Are Quiet With The Nearest Showers Now Moving Into Northwestern Alabama.

The Upper Low Will Be Positioned Over Southern Illinois By 12z
Sunday With The Surface Low Occluding Beneath It. The Cold Front
Will Extend Southward Into Mississippi By This Time.

Low Level Moisture Will Continue To Gradually Increase, Particularly Across Our Western Zones. In Addition, There Will Be Some Low Level Convergence In This Area. Pops Were Kept In The Slight To Low
Chance Range Through Tonight As The Front Approaches And Moisture Convergence Continues.

Overnight Temps Will Run About 5-7 Degrees Above Normal With Lower 60s In Most Areas.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Weak Upper Level Troughing Will Dominate The Area Through The
Short Term With Southwesterly Flow Aloft. At The Surface, The Region Will Reside On The Southwestern Edge Of A High Pressure Ridge, Yielding Onshore Flow.

This Overall Pattern Spells A Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Over Parts Of The Area Both Sunday And Monday.

The Best Chance On Sunday Is Expected To Be Across Southeast Alabama And Southwest Georgia Closer To The More Favorable Synoptic Forcing, And Then Shifting Eastward Slightly On Monday.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Models Start Out In Relatively Good Agreement With Weak Upper
Level Troughing Along The Gulf Coast And A Stronger Trough Across
The Intermountain West.

The Pattern Is Then Forecast To Amplify Greatly Towards The End Of The Week With Significant Model Differences Emerging.

The Key Differences Arise From The Handling Of An Anomalously Strong Upper Level Ridge Forecast To Develop Around Newfoundland And A Cutoff Upper Level Low Forecast To Dig
Anywhere From The Central U.S. To The Ms Valley.

Both The Ecmwf And Gfs Ensemble Spread Is Significant With This Pattern And The Overall Forecast Confidence Is Low. A Blend Of The Ecmwf Mos, Gmos, And Wpc Guidance Was Used For The Official Forecast In Order To Minimize The Error, Which Results In A Chance Of Rain Each Day Through The Period.

Aviation...Through 18 Utc Sunday

Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Dominate The Terminals Through Much Of The Upcoming Period.

Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms Will Develop This Afternoon And Remain A Possibility Through The Night.

These Could Bring Brief Episodes Of Mvfr Conditions.

Prevailing Mvfr Ceilings Are Forecast To Develop Early Sunday Morning At All Area Terminal And Scatter Out By Around 14z.


The Next Several Days Will Generally Feature An Easterly To
Southeasterly Flow Regime Which Will Result In Nocturnal Surges
Over Our Gulf Of Mexico Waters Each Night.

For The Most Part, These Surges Are Forecast To Remain Below Cautionary Levels.

Fire Weather...

With Deep Layer Moisture And Rain Chances On The Increase During
The Next Several Days, Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For
The Foreseeable Future.

We Are Forecasting Dispersion Indices To Be Over 75 Across The Southeastern Florida Big Bend Sunday Afternoon.


At This Time, It Appears As Though Widespread Rainfall Amounts
Through Early Next Week Will Range From Half An Inch To An Inch.

This Will Have Little To No Impact On Area Rivers.

Due To The Uncertainty With Respect To The Wet Pattern Forecast Through The Extended Period, Local Rivers And Creeks Will Have To Be Closely Monitored As There Are Varying Solutions As To How Much Rain May Fall.

Estimates Range From An Additional 1 To Possibly 3 Inches By The End Of The Week.

At This Time, Significant River Rises Are Not Anticipated.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 62 82 61 81 60 / 20 40 20 40 20
Panama City 66 78 64 80 64 / 10 30 20 30 20
Dothan 63 80 62 83 60 / 30 60 30 40 20
Albany 61 81 61 82 59 / 30 60 40 40 20
Valdosta 61 81 61 81 59 / 20 50 30 50 20
Cross City 61 84 61 82 60 / 10 20 20 40 20
Apalachicola 65 77 63 78 63 / 10 20 20 30 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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