Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Apr 20

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 15z Surface Analysis Shows The Cold Front From Yesterday Has
Pushed On Through To South Florida And The Colder, Drier Air Mass
Behind It Is Taking Control Of Our Area.

The Exception Being The Showers Behind The Front That Have Been Affecting The Cross City Area This Morning As Seen On Local Radar Imagery. As The Upper Level Trough Continues To Push Off To The Atlantic Coast, Zonal Flow Aloft Will Take Over.

Surface High Pressure, Will Keep Skies Behind Those Lingering Showers Clear Through Tonight. Temperatures Will Warm To The Upper 60s To Low 70s This Afternoon, Which Is Still About 10 Degrees Below Normal. Lows Tonight Will Also Be About 10 Degrees Below Normal, Dipping Into The 40s, With Upper 30s Possible For The Westernmost Part Of Our Forecast Area.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Surface High Pressure Centered Just West Of The Great Lakes Will
Build As It Translates Into New England Sunday Night And Monday.

A Wedge Of High Pressure Will Build Down The Lee Side Of The
Appalachians Tightening The Gradient Locally.

The Increasing Easterly Flow Combined With A Short Wave Passing Just To Our South Will Bring Slight To Low End Chance Pops Back In The Forecast For Sunday Through And Monday. The Best Chance For Rain Will Be Across The Southeast Big Bend.

Temperatures For Sunday And Monday Are Forecast To Gradually Moderate But Remain Below Normal, With Highs In The Lower To Mid 70s On Sunday And The Mid To Upper 70s Monday. Lows Will Generally Be In The Lower To Mid 50s.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The Upper Flow Will Be Nearly Zonal Across The Local Region Through Thursday With Weak Ridging Friday Into Saturday.

At The Surface, The Wedge Of High Pressure Is Forecast To Weaken On Tuesday Allowing The Next Cold Front To Approach And Push Through The Tri-State Region Tuesday Night Through Wednesday.
The Gfs Solution Continues To Be On The Order Of 6 To 12 Hours Faster Than The Euro With The Frontal Passage.

However, Both Models Show The Front Weakening With Very Low
Qpf For Our Fa. Thursday Should Be Dry With The Front Stretching Out
West To East And Stalling To Our South In The Zonal Flow.

Rain Chances May Return Friday Night Into Saturday As The Boundary Lifts North In Response To The Next Developing Low Pressure System In Southern Plains.

Temps Through This Period Will Be Near Normal With Highs In The Upper 70s To Lower 80s And Above Normal At Night (55 To 60).

Aviation [Through 18z Sunday]...

Vfr Conditions Are Expected Through The Period, Although Some
Guidance Hinted At Mvfr Ceilings At Vld Toward The End Of The
Period, Around 16z.

Confidence In Low Cigs Is Low At This Time, So Left Out Of Tafs.

North Winds Will Be Gusty Saturday, Weaken Overnight.

Winds Will Be From The Northeast And May Be Gusty Again Tomorrow.


Winds And Seas Have Dropped Below Advisory Criteria This Afternoon.

We Expect Cautionary Level Winds And Seas Through Sunday Before
Elevating Back To Advisory Conditions Sunday Night Into Monday As
The Gradient Tightens Over The Local Waters.

Light To Moderate Easterly Flow Is Expected Monday Night Through Tuesday Before Veering To The Southeast And South Wednesday As A Cold Front Approaches The Waters.

Winds Will Shift To Become Offshore In The Wake Of The Front Wednesday Night Through The Remainder Of The Week.

Fire Weather...

With Higher Winds And Lower Relative Humidities Today For Much Of
The Forecast Area, We May See Marginal Red Flag Conditions In Al And Fl.

With Moderate Rainfall Yesterday, Erc Values Are Above Red Flag
Criteria For Our Fl Zones, Otherwise We Would Meet Criteria.

In Al, Rh Values Will Dip Below 25, But Durations May Not Quite Be 4 Hours.

Relative Humidities Will Begin Increasing Again Tomorrow And Remain Above Red Flag Criteria For The Rest Of The Period.


The Rain Has Finally Ended And Rainfall Totals Came In Around An
Inch Or Less.

All Rivers Are Below Flood Stage And Are Forecast To Remain Below Flood Stage Through The Period.

Some Models Are Showing The Cold Front Stalling And Then Making Some Northward Movement On Sunday, Which Could Cause Some Light Showers Over The Suwannee River Area, But Model Qpf Is <0.20".

After That, The Next System Is Forecast To Move Through The Area On Wednesday, But Models Are Showing It Weakening As It Approaches. If We Do Get Rain From This System, Rainfall Amounts Will Likely Be Too Low To Significantly Impact River Stages.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 45 74 57 75 55 / 0 10 30 20 10
Panama City 51 75 59 74 59 / 0 10 20 10 10
Dothan 44 75 54 71 54 / 0 10 10 0 10
Albany 44 75 53 74 53 / 0 10 20 10 10
Valdosta 46 74 57 74 53 / 0 20 30 20 10
Cross City 51 77 60 77 55 / 10 30 40 30 10
Apalachicola 53 70 59 73 61 / 0 10 30 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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