Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Apr 14

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Complex Surface Pattern In Place This Evening, A Result Of The
Convective Complex Which Swept Aross The Region This Afternoon.

Synoptic Scale Warm Front Appears To Extend From Near The Mouth Of The Mississippi, Along The Gulf Coast And Into The North Central
Florida Peninsula. A Weak Wake Low Is Analyzed Over Se Alabama.

The Wake Low Has Helped To Generate Some Gusty Winds Across Se Alabama And Sw Georgia. However, This Influence Appears To Be
Fading Over The Past Hour Or So. Therefore, Let The Wind Advisory
For Se Alabama Expire At 00z. Could See Some Additional Gusty
Winds Over Sw Georgia Over The Next Hour Or Two, But Feel The
Intensity And Duration Do Not Necessitate An Advisory.

Otherwise, The Bulk Of The Rainfall Has Shifted South And East Of
The Area, And Have Lowered Pops To Account For This.

Expect To See Fog Overnight. However, Guidance Is Not Especially Bullish On Dense Fog, So No Advisory Is Planned At This Time.

Short Term [Monday Through Wednesday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences Mon Morning With
Trough/ Low Responsible For Todays Weather Lifting Newd Into
Great Lakes. Assocd Short Wave Will Be East Of The Area. This
Allows A Broad Upstream Upper Ridge/Height Rises To Build Over Ne Gulf Region With Axis Slowly Pushing Ewd To Ern Seaboard Tues
Night Into Wed In Response To Next Upstream Trough. This Trough
Reaches Cntrl Plains By End Of Period.

At Surface, Wave Responsible For Todays Weather Has Lifted To Just Off Sc Coast With Warm Front Just N Of Local Area By Midday Mon Becoming More Diffuse As Ridge Develops From Wrn Atlc Into Se States North Of Cwfa With Somewhat Drier Air Overspreading The Region.

However The Ridge Position Will Favor Deep Layer Southerly Flow Especially At Lower Levels Bringing Warm And Somewhat Humid Conditions To The Region For This Time Of Year.

Highs On Monday Will Range From The Lower 80s Along The Northern Tier Of Zones And Near The Coast To The Mid 80s In The Interior. Lows Monday Night Will Be In The Mid 60s.

Highs On Tuesday And Wednesday Will Reach The Mid To Possibly Upper 80s With Coastal Counties Cooled By A Sea Breeze Topping Out In The Lower 80s. With A Moderating Sea Breeze, The Beaches Will Peak In The Upper 70s.

Warming Aloft And Subsidence In The Wake Of Sundays Shortwave Will Suppress Precipitation. Still, Any Residual Lift From Dying Front And Sea Breeze Plus Warm Temperatures May Allow Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms Both Afternoons Especially Over Coastal Fl.

Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Sunday]...

The Period Begins With Amplified Troughing Over Plains And
Ridging Ewd Into Wrn Atlc With Axis Along Ern Seaboard. At The
Surface, High Pressure Will Be Centered Over Canadian Maritimes
With Axis Swd Down Extreme Wrn Atlc. Lows Over Ia And Over Ks/Ok
With Cold Front Swwd Into Tx. This Places Local Area In Moist
Onshore Flow With Unseasonably Warm Temps.

Even As The Upper Low Lifts Newd Thu Into Fri, The Trough Aided
By Passing Shortwave Late Thurs Deepens Sewd Into Se States.
Surface Lows Deepen Newd As Front Strengthens And Moves Sewd Into The Wrn Gulf Thu Night Shunting The Surface Ridge Sewd. It Reaches Panhandle Fri Aftn And Big Bend By Sundown.

Mainly Diurnal Convection On Thursday With More Significant Precip On Fri Aftn/Night As Front Crosses With Strong To Severe Storms Possible IF Upper/Lower Features Juxtapose Well. In The Wake Of The Front, Drier And Noticeably Cooler Air Will Build Into The Local Area Into The Weekend.

Will Go With Nil Pops Wed Night-Thurs And Sat Night Thru Sun.
Otherwise, 30-0% Nw-Se Thu Night, Then Scattered Pops Fri Into Fri
Evening, And 0-30% Nw-Se Pops On Sat.

Ahead Of The Front...Expect Min Temps Thu Night In Low To Mid 60s, Then In The Wake Of The Front...Mins Drop To 55 To 60 Fri Night And 50 To 55 Sat Night.

Max Temps Will Commence In The Mid 80s Thu, Drop To 75 To 80 With The Front On Fri Over Eastern Areas, With Low To Mid 70s Over The Northwest Zones, Then 68 Se Al To Mid 70s Se Big Bend On Sat And 71 Se Al To 77 Se Big Bend On Sun.

Aviation...[Through 00z Wednesday]

Widespread Rain Is Moving Out Of The Area This Evening. Guidance Indicates That Low Cigs Will Become A Concern Tonight With All Sites Seeing Ifr Conditions. Some Fog Could Also Develop Late Tonight Across The Area. Conditions Will Gradually Improve After Sunrise.

Marine...

Winds And Seas Over The Waters Should Diminish Through The
Overnight Hours As The Warm Front Lifts North And The Convective
Influence Fades. Extended The Small Craft Advisory For A Few
Hours, But Still Plan To Drop It Later This Evening.

Fire Weather...

Relative Humidity Values Are Expected To Remain Above Critical
Levels For The Next Several Days With No Fire Weather Concerns
Expected Other Than The Potential For Some Fog In The Early
Morning Hours On Monday And Tuesday.

Hydrology...

With Storm Total Rainfall 2 To 3 Inches In The Fl Panhandle,
And 1.5 To 2.5 Inches Elsewhere, Sharp Rises Are Expected On Some Rivers In The Western Watersheds. A Few Rivers Like The Shoal And Choctawhatchee Could Rise To Bankfull.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 61 85 65 87 64 / 60 20 10 20 10
Panama City 63 81 69 82 67 / 50 10 10 20 10
Dothan 59 85 67 85 64 / 20 10 10 20 10
Albany 59 84 66 86 64 / 30 20 10 20 20
Valdosta 60 86 65 86 64 / 60 20 10 20 20
Cross City 62 83 64 87 63 / 60 20 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 78 66 79 67 / 60 10 10 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...
Small Craft Advisory Until 8pm Edt Tonight For Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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