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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Apr 13

Near Term [Tonight]...

An Area Of Low Pressure Currently Developing In The West Central
Gulf Will Lift To He North-Northeast Toward The Coast Of Louisiana
And Bring A Warm Front Into Or Just South Of Our Coastal Waters By
Daybreak.

Showers And Possibly A Few Elevated Thunderstorms Will Overspread The Local Region From Southwest To Northeast Due To The Strengthening Isentropic Ascent.

A Better Chance For Thunderstorms Will Be Over The Panhandle Waters South Of The Frontal Boundary.

Pops Will Remain Tapered From Likely Along The Panhandle Coast To Slight/Silent 10% Northeast Zones.

Min Temps Will Be In The Lower To Mid 50s Inland Areas And Around 60 Along The Coast.

Short Term [Sunday Through Tuesday]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences Sun Morning With
Ridging Over Wrn States And Wrn Atlc With Trough Over Nrn Plains
With Axis Sewd Into Nrn Gulf. A Mid/Upper Shortwave Drops Down Base Of Trough In S Tx And Moves Ewd Across Gulf Of Mex.

At Surface, High Pressure Centered Over The Mid Section Of The Nation Is Ridging Sewd To The Gulf Coast. Low/Wave Developing At Base Of Above Trough In Wrn Gulf With Warm Front Ewd Across Extreme Nrn Gulf Of Mex And N/Cntrl Peninsula.

Locally At Mid/Upper Levels, This Provides Increasing Divergence And Swly Flow Advecting Higher Level Moisture Into The Region.

At Lower Levels, Ahead Of Shortwave, A Low Level Jet Of About 40 Kt Is Forecast Over Lwr Ms Valley Around Sunrise Sun Will Dig Sewd To Across The Fl Panhandle Later In Day Helping To Lift Wrn Gulf Wave Newd Along Slowly Lifting Front. All This Translates To Increasing Vertical Shear And Ample Se/S Warm Moist Air Overspreading The Area.

At This Time, The Main Threat With This System Should Be Heavy
Rainfall. Initially, The Isentropic Induced Stratiform Rain Will Push Ahead Of The Warm Front In What Will Be A Very Dry Environment.

As The Front Limps Nwd, Rain Will Shift To A More Convective Type
And How Far North Front/Higher Theta-E Shifts Will Play Large Role In
Actual Weather, Both In Terms Of Rain Amounts, Type And Chance For
Strong To Severe Weather As Well As Chances For Any Flooding.

The Models Are Hinting That Front Will At Least Initially Stall Just
Offshore Due To The Rain Cooled Environment Just To The N Of Front
Thus Placing Highest Rainfall Totals Across Marine Zones And Coastal Sections Along And Just North Of The Front. However, A Series Of H5 Shortwaves And The Surface Low Will Move Across The Region Into Sun Night Keeping Rain Chances High Everywhere. Actual Highest Amounts Will Be Also Influenced By Any Mesoscale Processes That Develop Over Area. Will Insert Heavy Rain In Grids.

Severe Storm Development Will Hinge On Whether Or Not We Can Muster Up Enough Instability Largely Dependent On Surface Wave And Thus How Far North Front Lifts And What Time Of Day.

Right Now, Most Guidance Is Suggesting That The Main Lifting Mechanism Will Be The Warm Air Advection From The Front, Which Would Favor The Heavier Rainfall More Than Severe Thunderstorms And Keep Much Of The Forecast Area On The Rain-Cooled Side Of The Front For Much Of The Day. But Models Do Differ With Nam Developing A Weak Surface Low Near Mob Which Then Moves Nwd To Wrn Tn Overnight Which Would Lift Front To N Of Fl Border With Surface Based Convection And Even Isold Tornado Potential
Spreading Across Our Area Sun Eve Into Overnight. Conversely, Gfs
Lacks This Cyclogenesis With Front Remaining Over Fl Or Even Along
Marine/Coast Boundary. For Now With Lean Towards Gfs Scenario And Downplay Severe Threat. However Should The Front Push Further N Especially During The Time Of Max Diurnal Heating, Max Upper Forcing And Low Level Shear As The Shortwave Dips Through The Region During The Afternoon, Then We May Destabilize Enough To See Stronger Storms Mainly Along And South Of I-10. Some Cold Air Aloft And Mid Level Cape Develop North Of Front So Cant Totally Discount Hail There.

So In Sum, Best Chances For Severe Storms Will Be At Coast And Over Waters. The Spc Day 2 Outlook Has Expanded The 5% Severe Probability Nwd Into Srn Ga.

During Monday, Upper Trough And Best Forcing Move Ewd With Ridging Building Ewd And Over Local Area Into Tuesday Morning. At Surface, In Wake Of Departing Surface Low And Lifting Warm Front Reaching N Ga By Sunrise Tues, Drier Air Builds Into Our Region.

However Until Then, With Little Frontal Movement Into Sun Night And The Presence Of Surface Wave Riding Newd Along Residual Surface Boundary And Continued Warm Air Advection, Chance Of Rain Persists Sun Night Into Early Monday Albeit Noticeably Less Than On Sunday.

Storm Totals Range From 1 To 2 Inches North Off Fl To 2 To 2.5 Across Fl With The Highest Amounts Across Se Big Bend. This Could Generate Localized Flooding Into Early Mon Especially If/Where Front Stalls. Also, A Shortwave Moving Thru The Ridge Late Mon Night Into Tues Will Generate Sct Rain Mainly Over Al/Ga Counties Later On Tues.

Will Go With High Likely To Cat Pops On Sun, Sct Pops Sun Night,
Wdly Sct-Low Sct On Mon Thru Tues. Given The Uncertainties Of Front
And Extend Of Warm Sector, Temp Forecast Tricky With How Much Rain Will Fall In The Initial Cool And Dry Airmass Thus What Will Be The Impact Of Evaporative Cooling. Usually In The Scenarios Model
Guidance Way Too Warm And Will Cut Mos Accordingly.

So Highs On Sunday Are Tricky And Were Kept In The Upper 60s To Low 70s. Lows Sunday Night Will Be In The Low 60s. Expect Highs Monday And Tuesday To Rise Back To The Low To Mid 80s. Lows Mon Night Are Expected In The Mid 60s.

Also Wet Ground And Light Winds Favor Fog Sunday And Monday Nights.

Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

The Period Begins With Amplified Troughing Over Wrn States, Weak
Ridging Over Ern States Into Atlc With Axis Just Off Ern Seaboard.
At Surface High Off Mid-Atlc Coast With Ridging Wsw Across Se
Region. Next Cold Front Well Upstream. This Places Local Area With
Moist Onshore Flow With Unseasonably Warm Temps.

During The Next Few Days, Wrn Trough Strengthens Into The Srn Plains Wed Night With Cold Front From Tx Newd Thru Upper Midwest. As The Upper System Lifts Newd Thurs Into Fri, Front Strengthens And Moves Sewd Into Wrn Gulf Thurs Night Shunting Surface Ridge Sewd. It Moves Nw-Se And Across Local Area During Friday And Fri Night. In Wake Of Front, Much Cooler Air Will Build Into Local Area.

Will Go With Aob 20% Pops Into Thurs Night, Then Sct Pops Fri Into
Fri Eve With Nil Pops On Sat.

Ahead Of Front Expect Min Wed And Thurs Nights In Low To Mid 60s, Then In Wake Of Front Mins Drop To 55 To 60 Fri Night. Max Temps Will Commence In The Mid 80 Wed And Thurs, Drop To 75 To 80 With The Front On Fri, Then Around 70 Se Al To Mid 70s Elsewhere.

Aviation...

Mvfr Conditions In Rain And Fog Will Develop Across The Area Sunday After 09z...With Widespread Mvfr/Ifr Conditions In Heavy Rain And Embedded Thunderstorms 18z-00z.

Mvfr Conditions In Rain/Fog Will Spread Into The Coastal Areas Of The Fl Peninsula And Fl Big Bend Areas 09z-12z And To Inland Terminal Locations 15z-18z.

Expect Ifr Conditions All Terminals After 18z In Heavy Rain With Embedded Thunderstorms Likely.

Marine...

Borderline Exercise Caution Level Winds Will Diminish Briefly Into
Tonight Before Increasing Again After Midnight As A Warm Front
Approaches From The South.

Thunderstorms With High Winds And Heavy Showers Associated With This Warm Front Will Invade The Coastal Waters.

The Worst Part Of The Storm Will Be Sunday With Winds Nearing Advisory Levels Over The Western Offshore Waters.

Chances For Thunderstorms And Rain Linger Through Monday As The Front Stalls.

Fire Weather...

The Atmosphere Will Rapidly Moisten Overnight With Widespread Heavy Rains Expected On Sunday.

A Moist Onshore Flow Will Continue Through The Upcoming Week With No Fire Weather Concerns.

Hydrology...

A Warm Front Will Approach From The Gulf Sunday Morning.

Heavy Rainfall Is Expected To Be Around 1.5-2.5" On Sunday Across The Forecast Area With Highest Amounts Along The Coast, With Locally Heavier Rainfall Totals Up To 5 Inches Possible.

Sharp Rises Can Be Expected On Area Rivers.

However, With The Heavier Rains On The Lower Stretches Of The Watersheds, Overall Riverine Flooding Threat Look Minimal.

Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts Indicate Caryville May Reach Its Flood Stage.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 51 72 63 84 66 / 30 80 50 20 20
Panama City 60 71 67 77 68 / 50 90 40 20 10
Dothan 55 68 63 84 67 / 30 90 50 20 10
Albany 53 69 63 84 66 / 20 90 50 30 20
Valdosta 51 72 62 84 65 / 20 80 60 30 20
Cross City 55 76 65 82 64 / 30 70 50 20 10
Apalachicola 59 72 66 74 68 / 50 80 40 20 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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