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Dothan Area Weather Evening Discussion Apr 11

Near Term [Rest Of Tonight]...

Currently Monitoring The Line Associated With A Cold Front That Will Be Moving Through The Area Tonight.

Kmob Radar Shows A Line Echo Wave Pattern Developing Just Offshore With Strong Storms Showing Some Bowing Signatures From The Coastline North To I-10.

Some Stronger Storms Have Been Detected West Of Our Cwa And We Are Anticipating That Our Western Counties Will See The Potential
For Strong To Severe Wind Gusts Associated With These Storms And
Isolated Tornadoes.

00z Tae Sounding Shows This Mornings Capping Inversion Has Been Broken, However There Is Still A Fairly Warm Layer That May Act To Reduce Updrafts And Potentially Limit A Widespread Severe Event. Severe Wind Gusts And Isolated Tornado Threat Will Still Be Possible Near Any Isolated Deeper Storms That May Form. Rainfall Should Come To An End By The Pre-Dawn Hours For Our Most Western Zones And Will Exit The Eastern Areas By Late Morning Tomorrow.

Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Although The Threat For Severe Weather Should Be Just About Done By Friday Morning, Some Of The Latest Indications In The Models Are
Showing That The Tail End Of The Cold Front May Be A Bit Slow To
Exit Our Region On Friday, Especially During The First Half Of The
Day. Therefore, We Are Keeping A 20-50 Percent Pop Gradient From Nw To Se Across The Cwa From 12-18 Utc, With Just 20-30 Percent Rain Chances After 18 Utc For Extreme Eastern Portions Of The Area.

Only Slightly Cooler Air Will Filter In Behind The Front, With High Temps Still In The 75 To 80 Degree Range. It Will Be Noticeably Cooler Over Much Of The Area Friday Night, With Lows Ranging From The Mid 40s Over Parts Of Se Al, To The Mid To Upper 50s Across The Se Fl Big Bend.

This Will Set Up A Fair And Seasonably Warm Day For Saturday,
Before The Next Disturbance Begins To Head Our Way By Late Saturday Night, Setting Up A Potential Wet Period Described Below.

Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

After A Quiet Start To The Weekend, It Appears That More Wet Weather
Is On The Way For Sunday Into Monday, As An Upper Level Disturbance And A Weak Sfc Wave Move Ne Into Our Region From The Gulf Of Mexico.

Although No Strong Or Severe Storms Are Expected With This System,
It Could Be A Fairly Prolific Rainfall Producer As Plenty Of Deep Layer Moisture Enhances A Favorable Setup For Isentropic Lift.

This Low Pressure System Should Exit Our Region On Monday Night And Tuesday, With A Stretch Of Quite Warm And Humid Conditions Expected For The Remainder Of The Period.

High Temps Will Likely Reach Well Into The Middle 80s.

Aviation...

Strong Weather System And Associated Wind Shift Will Move Across The Region Tonight.

Ahead Of The System Strong/Gusty Southerly Winds And Mvfr Cigs Will Remain Prevalent This Evening, With Ifr Settling In Overnight.

Scattered Showers Will Remain Common Through The Evening, With Thunderstorms Increasing Across Kecp/Kdhn Around 00z With Line Of Storms Advancing Ewd Across The Other Sites Through The
Night.

Friday, Ifr/Mvfr Cigs Will Linger Through The Morning Before Clearing And Returning To Vfr In Western Areas During The Afternoon.

Marine...

Winds And Seas Will Continue At Borderline Small Craft Advisory
Conditions Outside Of Apalachee Bay Tonight, With Some Higher Gusts Likely In And Around Any Strong To Severe Thunderstorms.

Winds Will Diminish Behind The Front On Friday As They Shift From Onshore To Offshore, With A Possible Northeasterly Surge Back To Cautionary Levels On Friday Night.

Thereafter, Light To Moderate Winds And Seas Should Be The Rule

Fire Weather...

Rain And Thunderstorms Will Move Across The Region From West To East Tonight Ahead Of A Cold Front.

This Will Wet Small Fuels And Likely Hinder Fire Weather Concerns For The Near Future, Although Drier Air Will Arrive Behind The Front For Friday And The Weekend.

Rh Will Likewise Drop To Below 30 Percent On Saturday Afternoon.

Winds Will Be Too Light To Reach Red Flag Criteria In Fl And Durations Will Be Too Brief Even If Erc Values Can Rebound Sufficiently After The Upcoming Wetting Rains.

Hydrology...

Despite Some Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible In Some Of The Stronger Storms, The Progressive Nature Of This Cold Front Tonight Should Preclude Any Major River Rises.

However, The Next Low Pressure System On Sunday And Monday Does Have More Potential To Produce Widespread Heavy Rainfall, So It Will Be Monitored Closely Over The Next Few Days.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 68 80 53 83 54 / 80 50 10 0 20
Panama City 66 76 57 79 59 / 80 30 10 0 20
Dothan 62 75 49 81 50 / 90 20 0 0 10
Albany 65 78 49 81 50 / 80 30 10 0 10
Valdosta 68 80 53 82 51 / 70 50 10 0 10
Cross City 67 80 59 82 56 / 40 50 20 10 20
Apalachicola 68 76 58 77 60 / 80 50 10 0 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...High Risk Of Rip Currents For The Beaches Of Bay And Walton
Counties Until 7 Am Cdt Friday.

Ga...None.

Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 8 Am Edt Friday For Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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