Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A split flow pattern with a fast moving southern branch upper level disturbance is influencing the weather across the southeast this morning.
All of this is occurring in the colder air behind a stationary front that stretches from the southern Gulf of Mexico northeast through Central Florida into the Western Atlantic.
Basically the surface and upper level pattern are delinked. A cold 1026mb High over the ArkLaTex area is nearly stationary.
The upper level disturbance over Texas is racing east and will dig
into a very sharp negatively tilted trough over Alabama by this
evening. A band of very moist air is caught between the upper
level disturbance and the stationary front to the south. This is
making for a very dreary day across the Southeast U.S., but with
much needed rainfall.
Though the amounts will remain less than one inch, something is better than nothing. Temperatures are remaining rather cold this morning over Alabama. The cold air over Alabama is headed south and east so we may need to tweak down the forecasted max temperature this afternoon. Will continue to monitor.
PoPs will be near 100% today for all but the extreme west and northwest zones where PoPs will range from likely to categorical.
For tonight until around midnight, PoPs will be tapered from nil-
silent 10% west of the river and slight (20%) to likely (60%) east.
Most areas will see max temps today only in the upper 40s north to mid 50s south, due to the overcast and rainy conditions.
Min temps tonight will generally be in the lower to mid 40s.