Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Low clouds and fog have dissipated for the most part and may see a
brief period of sun in the area by early afternoon. However, clouds and precipitation chances will increase from west to east ahead of a fairly strong cold front now pushing esewd across the Central Gulf Coast states.
Broken area of showers and thunderstorms remains just ahead of the front at mid morning. This activity will likely continue into southern
AL and the far western FL panhandle through the afternoon, but is
expected to begin diminishing in coverage and intensity later
today and tonight as the front moves across the remainder of the
May see additional, showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over the Bay and move inland overnight. All in all, current forecast in decent shape with only minimal changes required in this update.
Although shear values will remain supportive of some organization
to the convection as it moves into the western Panhandle/sern AL,
expect combination of weakening upper support and marginal
instability should limit overall severe threat.
We will monitor for possible strong winds with the more organized cells this afternoon, but think 5% from SPC remains more than adequate.