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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Nov 26

Synopsis...

Zonal Flow Exists Across The Eastern Half Of The Nation This
Afternoon. Out West We See A Split Flow Pattern. One Short Wave Of
Note Is Pushing Southeastward Across The Central Plains While A
Southern Stream Vort Center Is Noted In Water Vapor Imagery Heading East From Northern Mexico Toward Tx. Surface Analysis Shows A Ridge Of High Pressure Extending Westward From The Atlantic Along The North Fl Border. A Low Pressure System Is Developing Over The Red River Valley Of Tx/Ok.

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

It Does Not Appear That The Energy In The Northern Or Southern
Streams Will Ever Quite Phase And The Southern Energy Will Be Rather Disorganized.

A Cold Front Will Work Its Way Eastward To Northern Al And Southern Ms By 12z Tuesday. We Do Expect Scattered Showers Out Ahead Of The Front To Reach Our Western Zones Before Dawn. Pops Range From 50 Over Northwest Coffee County Al To Slight Chance From Aby Southwest To Cape San Blas.

Min Temps Will Be Considerably Milder Than The Past Couple Of Mornings. Coldest Readings Will Be Across Inland Portions Of The Fl Big Bend Where Lower 40s Are Expected. Our Western Zones Will Not Drop Below 50.

Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The Front Will Move Into Our Western Zones Tuesday Afternoon And
Then Begin To Lose Definition Tuesday Night.

Highest Pops Associated With This System Will Occur During The Daylight Hours Tuesday With All Areas Northwest Of A Vld To Aaf Line Getting Likely To Categorical Pops.

Residual Slight To Low Chance Pops Will Linger Into The Evening Hours. Despite Some Decent Shear, Instability Will Be Very Limited And We Will Limit Any Mention Of Isolated Ts To The Marine Area And Far Western Zones.

Despite The Good Coverage, Rainfall Totals Will Not Be All That Impressive (See Below).

Skies Will Clear On Wednesday And It Will Not Get All That Cold. High Temps Will Be Near Normal. Lows Wednesday Night Will Drop Below Normal With Low 40s Southeast To Mid To Upper 30s Northwest.

Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

The Extended Forecast Will Feature A Predominately Zonal Flow
Across The Continental Us.

The 500mb Height Trend Over The Time Frame In Question Is Approximately +50m, And The Subtly Building Ridge Will Favor Warming Temperatures. However, The Low-Level Anticyclone Over The Southeast Is Likely To Anchor A Cooler Air Mass In Place A Bit Longer, So The Warming Trend Should Be Gradual.

By Monday, The Gefs Ensemble Mean 2m Temperature Departures Over Most Of The Conus Are Above Normal, Including All Of The Ensemble Members Over Our Area. With Normal Highs Monday
(Dec 3rd) In Tallahassee Around 68 - This Likely Spells A Stretch
Of Days With Highs In The 70s At The End Of The Extended Range
Forecast.

Despite Some Sporadic Light Qpf From A Few Of The Global Models, There Is Little Continuity On Timing Or Spatial Extent (Plus An Overall Lack Of Forcing). Therefore, Pops Were Capped At A Silent 14% To Produce A Dry Forecast.

Aviation...[Through 18z Tuesday]

Vfr Conditions Will Persist At Tlh And Vld Through The Period, Although Ceilings Will Develop And Lower By The End Of The Taf Period. Convection Will Impact The Other 3 Terminals By Mid Morning With Mvfr Ceilings Possible.

Marine...

Winds And Seas Will Remain Low Ahead Of The Front As Southeast Winds Gradually Veer To The Southwest.

The Winds Shift Will Occur From Tuesday Afternoon Into Tuesday Evening.

Offshore Winds Behind The Front Are Not Expected To Reach Cautionary Levels, Although They Will Get Close Wednesday Night.

A Period Of Easterly Flow Will Commence Thursday And Persist Into The Weekend.

Fire Weather...

Increasing Moisture, Including A Chance Of Rain Over The Western
Half Of The Forecast Area Tuesday, Will Diminish Fire Weather
Concerns For The Remainder Of The Week.

Hydrology...

Rainfall Expected With This Weeks Frontal System Will Total Around A Half An Inch Over Southeast Al And The Central Portions Of The Fl Panhandle. This Will Not Be Sufficient To Produce Significant River Rises.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 41 67 46 67 41 / 10 60 30 10 0
Panama City 54 68 50 68 46 / 30 70 30 10 0
Dothan 50 64 45 65 40 / 40 80 20 0 0
Albany 44 62 44 67 39 / 20 70 30 0 0
Valdosta 43 66 46 66 43 / 10 50 30 10 0
Cross City 42 72 46 73 43 / 10 20 20 10 0
Apalachicola 47 68 50 68 45 / 10 50 30 10 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...Red Flag Warning Until 6 Pm Est This Evening For Coastal
Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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