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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Nov 24

Near Term [Today]...

The 06 Utc Regional Surface Analysis Showed A Cold Front Extending Along The Piedmont, Through The Fl Panhandle, And
Westward To The Tx Coast.

Locally, The Front Had Recently Cleared Albany And Crestview, Though The Dewpoint Gradient Lagged The Front Somewhat.

There Was A Narrow Band Of Clouds With The Front, But No Rain.

Vapor Imagery And Upper Air Data Showed A Long Wave Trough Digging Across Much Of The Eastern Conus, But Ample Dry Air
Seemed To Be Greatly Hindering Precipitation Associated With This
Trough.

Cold/Dry Air Advection Will Dominate Our Forecast Area Today.

Still, The Airmass Behind This Front Is Not Exceptionally Cold, So Highs Today Will Still Reach The Mid To Upper 60s From Tallahassee And Panama City South And Eastward, With Lower 60s Around Albany And Dothan.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Although This Airmass Isnt "Extremely" Cold, It Will Be Very
Dry. With A High Pressure System Becoming Centered Over South Ga
Late Tonight, Winds Will Go Calm Shortly After Sunset.

Clear Skies, Calm Winds, A Very Dry Airmass, And Increasingly Long
Autumn Nights Will Allow Strong Radiational Cooling To Occur,
Dropping Low Temperatures At Or Below Freezing Around Dawn Sunday Morning Over Most Of This Region.

The Coldest Temperatures (Upper 20s) Will Occur In Fl Along The Traditionally "Cold Corridor" (A Zone Of Sandy Loam Soil That Radiates Longwave Radiation Extremely Well; It Generally Extends From Crestview, Through Tallahassee, And Down To Brooksville). Open Fields Within This Zone Will Get The Longest Duration Of Freezing Temperatures (2-3 Hours). Sites Within Urbanized Areas Like Downtown Tallahassee, And At The Beaches From Franklin County Westward, Will Remain Above Freezing. However, Sites Along The Fl Big Bend Coast Will Likely Reach Freezing, As The Moderating Effect Of The Gulf Of Mexico Is Much Less In That Area.

500 Mb Heights Will Quickly Become Nearly Zonal Over The Southeast By Sunday Afternoon, But With The Surface Ridge Axis Remaining Over Our Area, Another Cold Night Is Likely Sunday Night/Monday Morning.

Recent Mos Trends (From All The Models) Have Been Colder For
Mondays Lows, And There Could Be Another Brief, Light Freeze
(Though Not As Cold Or As Widespread As What We Are Expecting
Tonight).

Frost Is Likely Monday Morning As Well.

A Warming Trend Will Commence Monday Afternoon As High Temperatures Reach The Lower 70s.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

After A Cold Monday, The Extended Period Will Begin With A Warming
Trend. However This Will Be Shortlived, As A Trough Amplifies Over
Cntrl Conus To Begin The Period. Assocd Low Moves From Tx Coast Newd To New England By Wed.

This Will Deepen Surface Low That Moves From Tn Valley Into Oh Valley And Then Ern Great Lakes Late Mon Night Thru Tues Eve Sending A Trailing Cold Front Racing Through Our Forecast Area Tuesday Aftn Into Eve.

This Front Will Bring A Sct Showers And Isold Tstms Late Mon Night (Wrn Counties) Overspreading The Area Thru Tues With A Noted Nw-Se Pop Gradient As Forcing And Deeper Layer Moisture Increasingly Lift To The Ne. Then, Upper Trough Lifts Newd With Ridging And Nwly Steering Flow Over Area Next Few Days.

At The Surface, In The Wake Of The Front, Strong High Pressure Will Build To The North Allowing Cooler And Drier Air To Overspread The Region Yielding Clear Skies, However, Neither Of The Global Models Show A Major Cool Down Behind This Front.

The High Will Shift Ewd From Oh Valley On Thurs To Ern Seaboard On Fri With Increasing Ely Flow In Response To Next Low/Front. This Front Should Approach Late Fri Night Into Sat Bringing An Increase In Moisture And Rain. This Will Allow High Temps To Begin To Again Increase.

Will Go With Wdly Sct Pops Mon Night Increasing To Mid Sct Pops Tues Then Dropping To Wdly Sct Late Tues Night Into Early Wed. Otherwise, Below Nil Pops Thru Fri Then Wdly Sct Pops Fri Night-Sat.

Min Temps At Or Slightly Above Climo Mon Night, Then 5-8 Degrees Above Tues Night With Clouds And Rain...Then Dropping To 3-5 Degrees Below Climo Remainder Of The Nights.

Max Temps At Or Above Climo Tues And Wed, Then Around Climo Rest Of Period.

Avg Inland Min/Max Is 44/68 Degrees.

Aviation [Through 06z Sunday]...

Band Of Bkn Clouds Mainly 4k Crossing The Region From Nw-Se Ahead Of A Cold Front Bisecting Our Area At 06z. So May See A Few Hours Of Vfr Cigs At Terminals During Rest Of The Overnight Hours
Especially At Kvld.

Clear Skies And Northerly Winds Will Return By Sunrise.

Northerly Winds May Gust To Around 15 Knots At All Terminals During The Day Becoming Near Calm After Sunset.

Marine...

Upstream Surface Data And The Latest Nwp Guidance Indicate That A
Brief Period Of Small Craft Advisory Conditions Is Possible This
Morning Over Our Outer Coastal Waters (I.E. 20-60 Nm Out).

Winds And Seas Will Begin To Subside By This Afternoon As A High Pressure System Draws Closer.

Fire Weather...

In The Wake Of Exiting Front This Mornnig, A Reinforced Shot Of Dry
Air Will Quickly Overspread The Region.

Long Durations Of Low Relatives Humidities In The Mid 20s Are Expected Today.

The Front Will Bring Higher Transport Winds/Dispersions, Albeit Less Than Red Flag Levels. Erc Values Will Increase But Only Across Leon And Wakulla Counties Will They Exceed Critical Levels.

Therefore A Red Flag Warning Is In Effect For These Counties This Afternoon Into Early Evening.

The Airmass Will Dry Out Further On Sunday With Minimum Humidities Dropping To Around 20 Percent.

Dispersions Will Further Decrease With Little Change In Erc Levels.

Therefore A Fire Weather Watch Is In Effect For Sunday Late Morning Until Evening For These Same Areas And Conditions.

Relative Humidity Duration And Sustained 20 Foot Wind Criteria Are Not Expected Over Alabama This Weekend.

Red Flag Conditions Are Likely Again On Monday Before The Airmass Moistens Ahead Of The Next Front.

We Dont Expect A Return To Red Flag Conditions For The Rest Of The Work Week.

Hydrology...

Rainfall Expected With Next Weeks Frontal System Will Not Be
Sufficient To Produce Significant River Rises.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 66 28 65 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 65 38 64 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 62 30 63 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 63 30 64 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 64 29 64 32 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 69 28 66 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 65 37 62 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Freeze Warning From 2 Am Est /1 Am Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst/
Sunday For Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-Washington.

Red Flag Warning From Noon Today To 7 Pm Est This Evening For
Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Fire Weather Watch From Sunday Morning Through Sunday Evening
For Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

Ga...

Freeze Warning From 2 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...

Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 8 Am Cst Sunday For Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...

Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est This Morning For Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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