Dothan Area Weather Discussion Nov 17

Synopsis...

The Primary Feature Of Note In The Upper Levels This Morning Is A
Positively Tilted Trough Over The Southeast U.S. Just Upstream From
The Forecast Area. Surface Analysis Shows High Pressure Centered
Over The Eastern Great Lakes And Extending Across The Entire Eastern U.S. To The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.

Satellite And Surface Obs Show That The Low Clouds Have Cleared Across Most Of The Forecast Area And Are Limited To Coastal And Eastern Portions Of The Fl Big Bend And The Vld Area Of Ga As Of 07z. Area Radars Are Quiet. Winds Over The Marine Area Are Freshening Out Of The Northeast.

Near Term [Through Today]...

The Toughest Part Of This Forecast Is The First 18 Hours, With
The Primary Concern Being The Degree To Which Cloud Cover Will
Return Over The Area And The Impact That Will Have On
Temperatures.

The Current Thinking Is That The Short Wave Trough Will Cut Off Into A Weak Low That Will Induce A Wave Of Low Pressure On A Stalled Frontal Boundary Off The Coast Of Northeast Fl And Southeast Ga.

The Current Thinking Is That The Increased Low Level Flow On The Back Side Of The Wave Will Help Nudge The Clouds Back To The Northwest, About 2/3 Of The Way Across The Forecast Area.

Dpva From The Upper Vort Lobe Will Provide Just Enough Lift To Produce A Chance For Light Rain Or Sprinkles Over Eastern And Coastal Portions Of The Fl Big Bend. This Lift Should Keep The Clouds Thick Enough To Impact Temps Once Again. We Generally Went Below Guidance With Lower 60s In The Areas With The Most Persistent Clouds And Mid 60s Elsewhere. If The Clouds Do Not
Break Somewhat This Afternoon, Then Temps Will Once Again Not
Crack 60.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The Upper Level Energy Is Forecast To Lift Northeast Of The Area
Tonight Thus Cutting Off Lift And Mentionable Rain Chances. There
Will Still Be A Fair Amount Of Clouds Around Into Sunday Afternoon
Across The Eastern Zones. In Fact, Our Ga Zones Could See That
Cloudiness Persist Into Monday. Temps Will Gradually Moderate
Through This Period, But Remain Below Normal.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Next Saturday]...

Rather Benign Weather Is Expected For Next Week With A Progressive Pattern In Place.

Although An Upper Level Disturbance Is Expected To Pass Through The Area Around Mid-Week, It Looks Moisture Starved With Minimal Surface Reflection On The 17/00z Gfs And 16/12z Euro.

The Official Forecast Continues With A Dry Forecast Through The Week With Pops Below 15 Percent. Near Seasonal Temperatures Are Expected.

Aviation...[Through 06z Sunday]

The Back Edge Of The Low Cloud Deck Remains Near Ktlh And Kvld With Conditions Fluctuating Between Mvfr And Vfr At Those Two Locations.

There Are Indications In The Guidance That The Western Edge May Retrograde A Bit In The Early Morning Hours With Prevailing Mvfr Cigs Returning Again To Ktlh And Kvld. By Mid-Afternoon, It Is Possible That The Cigs May Lift To Vfr And Scatter Out Somewhat.

Elsewhere, Vfr Conditions Are Expected To Prevail, Although If The Cigs Retrograde Far Enough, Then There Is Some Possibility For A Brief Period Of Mvfr Conditions At Kecp.

Marine...

With High Pressure To The North Of The Region And Low Pressure
Developing East Of Fl And Ga, Northeast Winds Will Persist Across
The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico.

The Gradient Is Forecast To Tighten Sufficiently To Produce Small Craft Advisory Conditions Over The Offshore Legs This Afternoon That Will Persist Into Sunday Afternoon.

Elsewhere, Cautionary Conditions Are Expected.

As The Low Moves Further Out Into The Atlantic, The Gradient Should Relax Enough To Allow Winds To Drop Below Headline Criteria By Monday Morning.

However, Cautionary Conditions Could Return By Early Wednesday As Another Area Of High Pressure Builds North Of The Area.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected For The Next Several Days With Relative Humidity Values Forecast To Remain Above Critical Levels.

Hydrology...

With Very Little Rainfall Expected During The Next Several Days, No
Significant River Rises Are Anticipated.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 62 44 69 48 71 / 10 10 0 0 0
Panama City 63 48 68 52 70 / 10 0 0 10 0
Dothan 65 42 67 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 60 43 65 46 69 / 10 0 0 10 0
Valdosta 62 45 67 47 69 / 20 10 0 10 0
Cross City 66 48 72 47 72 / 20 10 0 0 0
Apalachicola 62 49 68 51 69 / 20 0 0 10 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory From 4 Pm This Afternoon To 4 Pm Est Sunday For Waters From Suwannee River To Destin Fl 20 To 60 Nm.


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