Dothan Area Weather Discussion Morning Update Dec 5

Near Term [Through This Afternoon]...

Another Dry And Warm December Day Is In Store Today Across The

A Relatively Potent Pv Anomaly / Mid-Upper Level Shortwave Trough Stands Out Well On The Morning Water Vapor Loops Just To The South Of Louisiana.

This Shortwave Is Expected To Deamplify As It Continues To Dig Southeast Into The Gulf Of Mexico.

Meanwhile, A Plume Of Upper-Level Cloud Cover Extends To The N-Ne Over Parts Of Ms/Al And N Ga.

The Dense Cirrus Is Situated West And North Of Our Area, And Has Not Made Much Eastward Progress Overnight. In Fact, There Was Drying Noted Over The Past 12 Hours On The Tae Soundings Above 1km.

Therefore, The Expectation Is That Our Area Will Stay Fairly Sunny During The Day, With Perhaps Some Cirrus Building Into The West (Although That Would Not Impact The High Temperatures All That Much).

There Hasn`t Been Much Change In The Low-Level Temperature Profile In The Past 24 Hours On Any Of The Tae Soundings, And With A Sunny Day We Should See Highs Fairly Similar To What Occurred Yesterday: Upper 70s In Most Spots, And Around 80 In The Florida Big Bend And Valdosta Areas.

The Past 25 Versions Of The Mav Mos Have Had An Average Bias Of -1.9 Degrees On High Temperature Forecasts For Tlh For The First 4 Days Of December. Adding A Couple Degrees To A Blend Of The Ecmwf And Mav Mos Yields Highs From 76 In The Far West To Around 80 From Tlh-Vld And Southeast, Which Is Consistent With Our Overall Expectations.

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