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Dothan Area Weather Discussion May 4

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Cold Front Has Pushed Into The Forecast Area This Morning With
Quite A Wide Range Of Temperatures Across The Area.

Areas Across Southeast Alabama And Adjacent Sections Of Northwest Florida Will Likely See Steady Or Slowly Falling Temperatures This Afternoon With Highs Remaining In The 50s In Some Areas (Normals At Dothan Are 83/59).

Occasional Light To Moderate Showers Will Continue Advancing Eastward With The Front Through The Remainder Of The Day, But Nothing Heavy Is Expected.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

Although The Bulk Of The Deep Layer Moisture Associated With The
Upper Level Low Will Be Cutoff From The Gulf Of Mexico During The
Next Few Days, This Feature Will Still Maintain A Very Strong
Presence Across The Se U.S.

This Will Keep Conditions Quite Cool Across The Region For This Time Of Year, With Isolated To Scattered Showers Remaining In The Forecast.

High Temps Are Only Expected To Reach The Upper 60s To The Middle 70s (Could Be Even Cooler With Less Insolation Than Currently Expected), With Overnight Lows In The Mid To Upper 40s.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

An Anomalously Large Upper Low Will Be In Place Across The
Southeast At The Start Of The Period.

Model Guidance Is In A Little Better Agreement That The System Will Slowly Depart By Tuesday Evening With The Weather Pattern Returning To A More Tranquil, Typical Early May Pattern.

The Best Chances Of Rain Will Be Early In The Long Term Portion Of The Forecast When The Upper Low Remains In Proximity To The Region.

Drier Air Will Begin To Move In By Tuesday, Limiting Rain Chances.

The Period Will Begin On The Cool Side With Highs Only In The Low To Mid 70s. A Warm Up Starts On Tuesday With Temperatures Returning To Normal By Wednesday.

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

A Cold Front Will Pass Through The Area From West To East Through The Period With Periods Of Showers And Mvfr/Ifr Conditions.

The Front Will Be A Fairly Slow Mover, And Low Cigs Continue Behind The Front.

Gusty Northwest Winds Are Expected Behind The Front At Kecp And Kdhn.

Marine...

Advisory Conditions Will Spread Across The Coastal Waters From West To East Today With Gusty Northwest Winds Behind A Cold Front.

A Second Period Of Advisory Conditions Is Possible On Sunday As Winds Become More Westerly.

Fire Weather...

Clouds And Rain Will Keep Rh Well Above Critical Levels Today.

Much Drier Air Will Arrive For Sunday And Monday.

However, Red Flag Criteria Are Not Expected.

Mixing Heights Will Grow Substantially On Sunday, Closer To What We Typically See In Early May. Transport Winds Will Also Be High. The Resultant Dispersion Indices Will Be Well Above 75 And In Many Cases Over 100.

Hydrology...

After One Last Minor Batch Of Rainfall Today, Any Additional Amounts
This Week Will Be Quite Low, Keeping Area Rivers At Fairly Low Flow
Levels.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 69 48 74 49 74 / 60 30 10 10 30
Panama City 65 53 72 55 71 /100 10 20 10 20
Dothan 59 43 68 45 70 /100 10 20 20 30
Albany 65 47 72 46 71 / 90 50 20 30 30
Valdosta 70 51 72 48 72 / 70 50 20 20 30
Cross City 74 53 75 51 75 / 40 30 10 20 20
Apalachicola 70 50 72 55 70 / 60 10 20 10 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...
Small Craft Advisory From 2 Pm This Afternoon To 8 Am Edt
Sunday For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory Until 8 Am Edt Sunday For Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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