Dothan Area Weather Discussion May 3

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Not Much Change To The Overall Pattern From This Morning, With Broad Weak Forcing From Deep Layer Low Pressure Spanning The Southeast.

The Primary Forcing For The Ongoing Showers Appears To Be The Strong Low Level Convergence Brought On By A 40 To 50 Knot Low Level Jet.

Heavy Rain Has Not Been An Issue This Far West As Very Little
Instability And Some Dry Air Aloft Have Limited The Growth And
Development Of The Local Shower Activity.

Expect The Overall Coverage Of Storms To Erode From East To West Later Today As The Low Level Jet Slowly Advances West.

Thereafter, A Cold Front Will Increase Rain Chances Once Again From West To East Later Tonight And On Into Tomorrow.

At The Same Time, Another Low Level Jet Will Approach From The East With A Secondary Low Level Circulation. This Will Promote The Development Of Scattered Showers, Much Like Today, Across Our Eastern Forecast Area Late Tonight.

In Summary, Although Some Locations May Get A Brief Break Early This Evening From The Shower Activity, Showers Will Become More Numerous Once Again Late Tonight Through Tomorrow.

Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated, In Fact, Thunderstorm Activity Is Not Expected Except For An Isolated Storm Or Two Offshore With The Front.

Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A Strong Upper Level Low Will Make Its Way Into The Area Bringing
Increased Pops And Cooler Temperatures.

Pops Start Around 50 Percent On Saturday And Decrease To 30 On Sunday With Limited Thunderstorm Activity Expected.

This Low Will Aid In Generating Colder Than Normal Temperatures On Saturday With Highs Peaking In The Lower 70s For The East And Decreasing To The Mid 60s In The Northwest Portion Of The Cwa.

Temperatures Will Be Warmer On Sunday But Still Staying Well Below The 80 Degree Mark.

Both Saturday And Sunday Night Will See Chilly Temperatures In The Mid 40s.

Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

An Anomalously Large Upper Low Will Be In Place Across The
Southeast At The Start Of The Period.

Model Guidance Is In A Little Better Agreement That The System Will Slowly Depart By Tuesday Evening With The Weather Pattern Returning To A More Tranquil, Typical Early May Pattern.

The Best Chances Of Rain Will Be Early In The Long Term Portion Of The Forecast When The Upper Low Remains In Proximity To The Region.

Drier Air Will Begin To Move In By Tuesday, Limiting Rain Chances.

The Period Will Begin On The Cool Side With Highs Only In The 60s to Mid 70s. A Warm Up Starts On Tuesday With Temperatures Returning To Normal By Wednesday.

Aviation [Beginning 19z Friday]...

Mvfr Conditions Will Lift Temporarily Later This Evening From Ktlh
To Kaby Eastward.

Elsewhere, Mvfr Conditions Are Anticipated To Start The Taf.

Through The Night Ceilings Will Lower From West To East, With All Sites Under Ifr Restrictions By Dawn.

Light Showers Will Continue Overnight For Most Sites, With Heavier Rain Possible Tomorrow Along An Advancing Cold Front.

Behind The Front Rain Will Come To An End And Skies Will Clear.

Gusts Up To 30 Knots Will Still Be An Issue This Afternoon, With Strong Low Level Winds Continuing Through At Least Tomorrow Morning.

With Surface Winds Forecast To Remain Near 10 Knots, Mentionable Wind Shear Is Not Anticipated, Though Overnight Approaches Could Be A Bit Bumpy.

Marine...

An Unsettled Weather Pattern Will Continue For The Next Few Days
As A Complex Low Pressure System Impacts The Marine Area.

Winds Will Increase Late Tonight And Remain Elevated Near Advisory
Levels Through At Least Monday Before Decreasing On Tuesday As The Low Pressure Areas Move Away From The Region.

Fire Weather...

Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected In The Foreseeable Future.

Sunday Will Feature Rather Dry Conditions Behind A Cold Front, But
Low Rh Durations Appear Unlikely At This Time.

Hydrology...

Still Only Anticipated Maximum Areal Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 1.5
Inches Across The Region Through Sunday, Which May Elevate Streamflows To Near Action Level.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 60 72 47 77 49 / 40 30 20 30 20
Panama City 56 70 53 73 54 / 70 20 20 30 20
Dothan 54 66 44 71 47 / 70 40 20 30 20
Albany 60 69 48 75 47 / 60 60 40 30 20
Valdosta 63 75 51 77 48 / 60 50 30 30 20
Cross City 64 80 54 79 49 / 40 30 30 30 20
Apalachicola 61 71 52 74 52 / 40 20 20 30 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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