Dothan Area Weather Discussion May 2

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A Broad Area Of Upper Level Low Pressure Centered Over The Ms/La
Coastlines Extends Eastward As A Trough Through The Tri-State
Region.

At The Surface, Low Pressure Associated With The Center Of The Aforementioned Upper Low Resides South Of New Orleans.

Additionally, An Inverted Low Level Trough Along The East Coast Of
Florida Will Move West Across The State Today, Increasing The
Strength Of The Low Level Jet Across South Georgia.

The Increasing Low Level Jet Will Act As A Focus For Shower And Possibly Heavy Rainfall Activity Across Portions Of The Southeast Big Bend Of Florida And South-Central Georgia.

Overnight, This Ribbon Of Enhanced Low Level Velocities Will Continue Its Westward Spread Into Portions Of Southeast Alabama.

Thus, For The Near Term, Expect An Area Of Continuous Light To
Moderate Rainfall To Develop Over South-Central Georgia And
Eastern Florida, Spread West, And Increase In Intensity Through
Tonight.

Over The Next 24 Hours, A Widespread 1 To 2 Inches Of Rain Will Be Likely In These Locations, With Isolated Higher Amounts Between 3 To 5 Inches Possible, Primarily Across Our Far Eastern Georgia And Florida Big Bend Counties.

Elsewhere, Mainly Scattered Showers Will Producing Rainfall Amounts Under An Inch.

Short Term [Friday Through Saturday]...

After A Quite Unsettled Short Term Period, It Finally Appears That
Significant Improvements Could Be On The Way For The Latter Half Of
Saturday And The Remainder Of The Upcoming Weekend With The Global Models Coming Into Better Agreement.

For Tonight And Friday, The Upper Level Low Which Is Currently Bringing In Copious Amounts Of Rainfall Into Much Of Sw And Sc Al Will Continue To Slide Eastward And Give Us Fairly High Rain Chances During The Next Few Days, And Will Gradually Begin To Weaken, As The Parent Upper Low Takes Command Over The Lower Ms Valley.

This Should Result In Decreasing Rain Chances After The Short Term Period As The Deep Layer Moisture Supply From The Gulf Of Mexico Eventually Gets Pinched Off.

However, With Plenty Of Cloud Cover (And High Rain Chances In Place), The Theme For Temperatures Will Remain Consistent Over The Next Few Days (Below Climo During The Day, And Above Climo At Night).

Long Term [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]...

As Discussed In The Short Term Section, The Large Cut Off Low Is
Expected To Drift Across The Tennessee Or Ohio River Valley
Through At Least Sunday.

There Still Continues To Be Significant Disagreement Between The Models With Respect To Both The Track And Intensity Of This Upper Low And As A Result, The Long Term Period Of The Forecast Is Lower Confidence Than Usual.

It Seems As Though What Consistency There Is Actually Shows All Available Guidance Moving Closer To The 01/00z And 01/12 Gfs Solutions Which Favor A Slow But Progressive Enough Moving Upper Low Going Through The Tennessee Valley Through Tuesday.

With This Particular Pattern In Mind, Do Not Expect To See A
Significant Washout On Any Day In The Extended Period As Moisture
Will Be Limited As The Low Transits To The North Of The Area.

In Fact, A Couple Of The Latest Runs Do Show Drier Air From The
Plains Being Advected Into The Area, Which Would Limit Rain
Chances To Low End Values By Monday.

Of Course, A More Southward Track Of This Low Would Result In Greater Rain Chances Returning To The Forecast.

Temperatures Throughout The Extended Period Are Expected To Run A Few Degrees Below Climatology With Such A Cold Upper Low In The Southeast.

Highs Early In The Period Are Only Expected To Be In The Mid To Upper 70s With Lows Generally In The Low To Mid 50s.

A Warm Up Back To Climatological Norms Is Expected Late In The
Period.

Aviation [Beginning 13z Thursday]...

At Least Mvfr Ceilings Will Prevail For The Entire Taf.

Rainfall Activity Will Become More Widespread Later Today, Especially At Kvld And Kaby.

Ifr Ceilings Will Be Likely In Areas Of Heavier Rainfall.

Low Level Winds Will Increase Through The Day Today, Once Again, Especially Near Kvld And Kaby.

In These Locations Gusts To 20 Knots Will Be Possible, With Around 40 Knot Winds Near 2 Kft.

Marine...

Cautionary Winds And Seas Will Continue Throughout Our Gulf Waters Through At Least This Afternoon Before Briefly Settling To Below Headline Conditions.

By Friday Night And Saturday, Advisory Level Conditions Could Spread From West To East Out Of The Northwest As A Cold Front Sweeps Through The Waters.

Fire Weather...

A Drier Weather Pattern Is Expected Over The Upcoming Weekend.

Until Then, Expect Abundant Moisture And Scattered To Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms Through Friday.

Hydrology...

With Plenty Of Storage Space In Area Rivers, Even The Isolated
Higher Amounts Mentioned In The Discussion Above Would Likely Not Place Any Of Our Rivers Into Flood Stage.

With That Said, Do Expect Slow Rises On Area Rivers Over The Next Several Days As The Wet Pattern Is Forecast To Continue.

Action Stage Is Certainly Possible, Especially Along The Withlacoochee And Ochlockonee Rivers.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 74 63 78 62 77 / 80 60 60 40 40
Panama City 76 64 75 58 72 / 80 50 60 40 30
Dothan 72 61 76 57 70 / 80 50 60 50 40
Albany 71 61 75 60 75 / 90 50 50 40 40
Valdosta 71 62 76 61 77 / 90 60 60 30 40
Cross City 76 63 78 61 80 / 80 60 60 40 40
Apalachicola 75 65 74 65 72 / 70 50 60 40 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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