Dothan Area Weather Discussion Mar 9

Near Term [Today]...

Continued Deep Layer Ridging Is Expected Today. The Main Difference From Yesterday Will Be The Presence Of High Level Clouds For Most, If Not All Day.

As The Surface Ridge Slides East, Winds Will Veer To The East.
The Main Impact From This Will Be To Transport The Smoke From Expected Fires In A Different Direction Than That Of Previous
Afternoons. Do Not Expect The Same Thick Fog/Smoke Mix As Was
Seen Yesterday Morning Since We Are Not Radiating As Optimally And
Winds Will Likely Increase A Bit Sooner This Morning.

However, Due To Mixing Heights Forecast To Remain Similar To Yesterday, And Coverage Of Fires Expected To Be Similar To Yesterday, Haze From The Probable Smoke Plumes Will Likely Exist Throughout The Afternoon.

Although High Clouds Are Expected Today, They Will Likely Have
Several Breaks In Them And Are Not Expected To Impact The Afternoon High Temperature Much. Thus, With Similar Atmospheric Conditions To Yesterday, Have Boosted Temperatures A Few Degrees Above The Guidance Envelope This Afternoon And Based The Max Temperature Forecast On Persistence. This Yields Middle 70s Across North Florida, With Upper 70s Possible Over The Southeast Big Bend. Elsewhere, Lower 70s Are Anticipated.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday Night]...

A Cold Front (Currently Developing Over The Central Plains) Will
Approach Our Forecast Area Monday, Bringing With It High Rain
Chances From Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Morning.

All Of The Latest Nwp Guidance Show Plenty Of Large Scale Forcing And Deep Layer Moisture To Justify Our High Pop (Around 80%). The Gfs And Ecmwf Are Very Close In Their Timing Of The Cold Front, But The Nam Is A Little Slower.

While This System Appears To Have Favorable Kinematics For The The Development Of Severe Storms, The Gfs, Nam, Ecmwf, And Sref Indicate That Sbcape Values Will Be Anemic (Less Than 100 J/Kg). These Values Are Low By Our Standards For This Time Of Year, When We Often Have High Shear/Low Cape Events.

In Fact, The Gfs And Nam Negative Cape Values Are About As High As Their Sbcape Values. All Of The Models Would Have To Be Way Off For More Than One Or Two Surface- Based Thunderstorms To Develop, Which Means That The Threat Of Damaging Winds And/Or Tornadoes Is Low.

Based On This Scenario, We Expect A Qlcs To Translate Eastward With The Cold Front Across Our Region (Mainly Monday Night),
With Isolated Thunderstorms. These Storms Will Likely Be Elevated,
Except Well Offshore.

Another Factor That Would Work Against Surface-Based Storms Is The Fact That The Shelf Waters Off Our Coast Have Cooled Considerably In Recent Weeks, Due To A Combination Of Upwelling, Cool Air Temperatures, And Perhaps Even The Drainage Of A Lot Of Fresh Water From The Rivers Into The Gulf Of Mexico. The Cool Shelf Waters, Especially Over Apalachee Bay, Could Enhance The Stable Boundary Layer That Will Likely Form Monday Evening.

Long Term [Tuesday Through Friday]...

In The Wake Of The Cold Front There Will Be Dry And Cool Nw Flow
For The Rest Of Period.

Highs On Tuesday Cool Off To Mid 60s Se Al To Low-Mid 70s Se Big Bend Then Warm Up To The Low To Mid 70s Wednesday Thru Friday.

Aviation [Beginning 11z Saturday]...

Mvfr Visibilities In Smoke Are Ongoing At Kaby And Kvld.

Expect A Return To Vfr Visibilities Around Sunrise.

Then, Vfr Conditions Under A Cirrus Deck And Relatively Light E/Se Winds Are Anticipated For The Remainder Of The Taf.

With Multiple (Controlled Burns) Fires Likely Again Today, A Hazy Afternoon Is Likely, Especially West Of Ktlh And Kaby.

Marine...

The "Nocturnal Surge" That All Of The Nwp Guidance Had Been
Forecasting For The Past Few Model Cycles Has Yet To Materialize,
But The Guidance Insists That The Easterly Winds Will Increase
From East To West This Morning.

This Will Be Followed By A Lull This Afternoon, Then A More Substantial Increase Late Tonight And Sunday, Possibly Even Reaching Advisory Levels On Sunday.

Fire Weather...

As Winds Veer To East And Even Southeast By Late Afternoon, Expect
Conditions To Be A Bit More Moist Than Yesterday.

Although Critical Rh Levels Are Expected Once Again For The Entire Tri-State Region, Durations Will Likely Not Be Met Across Se Alabama.

Winds Will Be Low Enough Area Wide To Fend Off Red Flag Conditions Across Both Georgia And Florida.

Plus, Although Lengthy Durations Of Critical Rh Levels Are Anticipated Across Florida, Erc Values Will Likely Remain Below The Trigger Of 37.

After Today, Rh Values Will Climb To Above Critical Levels Through Early Next Week And Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected.

Hydrology...

Our Current Estimate For Storm Total Rainfall For The Upcoming
Cold Front (Monday Through Tuesday) Is Generally Around An Inch, With Locally Higher Amounts Possible.

This Is Well Below The Southeast River Forecast Center`s Current Flash Flood Guidance Values, So Flash Flooding Is Unlikely.

Because The Recent High River Stages (Associated With The Extremely Heavy Rains From A Few Weeks Ago) Have Worked Their Way Well Downstream Now, It`s Unlikely This Upcoming Rain Will Cause River Stages To Climb Back To Flood Stage.

A Quick Look At Some Of Our River Gages Using Mmefs Shows
That The Most That This Rain Will Do Is Halt The Rapid Decline In
River Stages That Has Been Occurring Recently.

We`re Still Dealing With Residual Effects From The Heavy Rains
From A Few Weeks Ago Along The Suwannee River. The Current
Forecast For The Suwannee Continues To Call For Minor Flood
Stages At Ellaville And Dowling Park.

Further Down Into The Lower Suwannee, The Forecasts Are Still A
Little Uncertain. With Lower Crests Now Anticipated Along The Middle
Suwannee, This Will Have An Impact Downriver. However, These Lower Crests Still Correlate To Eventual Minor Flooding On The Lower
Suwannee, But This Would Not Occur Until After March 17th.

For Specific Crest Levels And Initial Timing Of Flood Stage And
Crests, Please Consult Our Ahps Page By Clicking On Rivers And Lakes On Our Website. This Can Be Found At The Following Web Address:

Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 73 47 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 30
Panama City 71 54 71 57 71 / 0 0 0 10 50
Dothan 72 49 76 54 72 / 0 0 0 10 60
Albany 70 46 75 52 75 / 0 0 0 10 40
Valdosta 72 45 76 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 20
Cross City 76 46 77 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 66 55 68 57 69 / 0 0 0 10 30

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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