Dothan Area Weather Discussion Mar 30

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Much Of The Nation Remains Under Northwesterly Flow Aloft With An
Upper Ridge Over The Southwest And A Broad Trough Over Eastern
North America And The Northwest Atlantic.

One Impulse In This Flow Over The Southern Plains Will Move East Across The Southeastern U.S. Today And Help Bring The Mid Level Cloudiness Just North Of The Region Southward Across The Forecast Area By Late In The Day.

In The Mean Time, It Will Be Mostly Clear South Of A Dhn-Aby Line.

The Surface Ridge Axis Has Shifted To A Position Across The
Northern Gulf Of Mexico. The Onshore Flow Off The Gulf Will
Gradually Increase Low Level Moisture And With The Lift Associated
With The Aforementioned Short Wave, We Could See Isolated Showers Over Our Northwestern Zones During The Afternoon. The Threat For Showers Will Expand Across The Forecast Area Tonight With Pops Generally In The 20-40 Percent Range.

The Threat For Thunder Appears Minimal And Restricted To The Gulf Waters And Coastal Counties Of The Fl Panhandle Overnight.

Temps Today Will Be In The Mid 70s For The Most Part, Which Is A Few Degrees Above Normal For Our Northern Zones. Lows Tonight Will Be In The Lower 50s East To Mid 50s Elsewhere. This Is Actually A Few Degrees Above Normal As Well.

Short Term [Sunday Through Monday]...

As An Upper Level Trough Amplifies Over The Great Lakes, A
Shortwave Moving Along The Flow Will Affect The Area Sunday And
Monday With An Increased Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms.

The Surface Cold Front, Upper Level Dynamics, And Instability Do Not
Look Particularly Impressive, So The Threat For Storms To Become
Severe Appears Low.

Two Day Rainfall Amounts Are Expected To Range From Around A Third Of An Inch Across The Southeast Big Bend To Around One Inch Across The Northwest Portion Of The Forecast Area.

Near Average Temperatures In The Mid To Upper 70s Are Expected During The Day With Somewhat Above Temperatures At Night In The Mid To Upper 50s.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

The Long Term Period Continues To Look Like An Unsettled Period.

Initially, The Larger Scale Eastern Conus Trough Will Amplify As A
Large Upper Low Drops Out Of Central Canada. The Model Guidance
Is In Relatively Good Agreement That As The Eastern Conus Trough
Amplifies By Tuesday, A Cold Front Will Push Through The Gulf
Coastal States And Into Southern Florida.

How Much Drier Air Manages To Make It Into Our Region Is Suspect At This Time, As The Euro And Gfs Both Develop Surface Waves On The Boundary Across The Central Gulf And Bring Return Moisture Back Into Our Forecast Area By Wednesday.

So, The Forecast Never Really Features A Rain Free Period.

Model Differences Increase Substantially By The End Of The Period
(As Is Normally The Case) With A System Progged To Move Across The Southeast On Friday.

While The Timing Of Weather Is Reasonably Close (Both Operational Gfs/Euro And Ensemble Means Indicate Precip), The Models Differ Drastically In The Details. The Gfs Surface Low With This System Stays Well To The South And Moves Across South Central Florida. The Euro Prefers A Surface Low Track Across Middle Georgia.

Obviously, The Disparity Between These Two Solutions Has Impact On Thunderstorm Potential As Well As Potential For Heavy Rainfall.

Have Applied A Little More Weight To The Euro Solution For This Portion Of The Forecast, But As Previously Stated, The End Of The Period Looks Almost As Unsettled As The Beginning.

Aviation...Through 12z Sunday…

Vfr Conditions Will Prevail Through The Day With Winds Generally 10 Knots Or Less. Mid Level Ceilings Are Expected To Develop During The Afternoon And Evening Hours.

By Late In The Taf Period, Mvfr Ceilings Will Develop At Dhn And Aby
Where A Few Showers Will Also Be Possible.

Marine...

Winds Will Remain Onshore Through Monday.

A Cold Front Will Cross The Waters On Tuesday, Shifting Winds To Offshore.

Winds Speeds Should Remain Below Headline Criteria At 15 Knots Or Less Through Much Of The Period, Only Increasing After Wednesday.

Fire Weather...

While It Will Be Dry Enough Today Across The Eastern Fl Big Bend
Zones, Winds Will Be Too Light To Meet Red Flag Criteria There.

An Increase In Moisture And Chances For Wetting Rains Are Forecast
For Sunday And Monday.

Hydrology...

Rivers Are Expected To Gradually Recede Or Hold Steady Over The
Next Few Days. Rainfall Amounts On Sunday And Monday Are Not
Expected To Be Enough To Cause Significant Rises At This Time.

Additional Rainfall Is Expected By Mid-Week Which Could Cause Some Rises At That Time.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 76 54 78 59 79 / 10 30 50 40 50
Panama City 72 60 76 62 76 / 10 30 50 40 50
Dothan 77 56 79 59 78 / 20 40 50 50 60
Albany 75 55 78 59 77 / 10 40 50 60 60
Valdosta 76 52 79 57 78 / 10 20 40 40 50
Cross City 75 52 78 57 79 / 10 10 20 30 40
Apalachicola 70 58 74 62 74 / 10 20 50 40 40

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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