Dothan Area Weather Discussion Mar 23

Latest Surface Analysis Places The Warm Front Across Our Coastal
Waters. One Relatively Large But Localized Cluster Of Showers And Thunderstorms Has Developed Rapidly This Morning And A Few Of The Storms Have Produced Hail Up To 1 Inch In Diameter Over Portions The Florida Panhandle. This Activity Is Rapidly Moving To The East-Northeast. Looks Like An Active Day For Convection And See No Reason To Change The Current Forecast Package.

Near Term...[Today And Tonight]

The Threat For Severe Weather Will Still Be In Place Across The Cwa For Today And Tonight, Although The Overall Confidence For Areal Coverage And Intensity Of The Potential Severe Thunderstorms Has Decreased Very Slightly From This Time On Friday.

This Is Noted From The Storm Prediction Centers Day 1 Convective Outlook, Which Is Now A General 15% Probability For Severe Storms Across The Cwa (Previously, It Was A 30% Shaded Area Over Se Al And Much Of The Fl Panhandle). This Sizable 15% Area Still Represents The Threat For Damaging Winds And Large Hail, With Isolated Tornadoes Still Possible At 5%, So This Could Still Be A Very Significant And Protracted Severe Weather Event When All Is Said And Done.

It Should Be Noted That We Are Still Expecting A "2-Pronged" Severe
Weather Threat, Initially Along The Developing Warm Frontal Boundary Which Is Setting Up Along The Ne Gulf Coast This Morning, And Then With The Expected Squall Line Which Will Form Out Ahead Of The Approaching Cold Front Later Tonight.

This Warm Front Will Continue To Develop And Push Northward Across The Cwa During The Day. As It Gradually Evacuates The Low Level Dry Air Still In Place Across Much Of The Interior, The Threat For Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Increase With Steepening Mid-Level Lapse Rates And Surface Dewpoints Which Will Rise Into The Mid To Upper 60s Across Much Of The Cwa During The Afternoon.

There May Be A Brief Lull In The Convection At Some Point During This Period, Between The Passage Of The Warm Front And Approach Of The Squall Line And Any Discrete Supercells Which Develop Out Ahead Of It.

In Addition To The Possibility Of All Modes Of Severe Weather, The Likelihood Of Heavy Rainfall Is Increasing A Bit With Each Subsequent Model Run. We Are Now Expecting Widespread Storm Total Qpf Of Between 2 And 3.5 Inches, With Locally Higher Amounts Of 4 To 6 Inches Not Out Of The Question When The Rain Comes To An End.

Short Term [Sunday Through Tuesday]...

The Prolonged Severe Weather Threat Will Continue Into Sunday
Albeit A Little Less Than 12-24hrs Ago.

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Commences Amplified With Broad Troughing Covering Almost All Of Conus. Assocd Low Near Ks/Mo Border. The Main Upper Trough Will Dig Sewd With Enhanced Forcing Spreading Into Se Region. As H5 Impulse Translates Ewd Through Base Of Trough Combined With Ascent From 110+ Wsw H3 Jet. This Will Allow For An Increase In Storm Coverage Spreading Ewd During Morning.

At The Surface, Period Begins With Low Over Nrn Most Al With Warm Front Ewd Across S/Cntrl Al/Ga And Cold Front Ssw Down Al And Into Wrn Gulf. The Digging Upper Trough Will Rapidly Deepen Surface Low Quickly Lifting It Into Wrn Tn Soon After Sunrise And To Off Sc Coast During The Morning. Rapid Surface Pressure Falls Ahead Of Low Will Pull The Warm Front Farther North And Out Of Our Cwfa, Allowing For The Juicier Low- Level Airmass To Spread Well Inland.

At The Same Time Cold Front And Squall Line Sweep Ese With Greatest Coverage Before Sunrise Across Al/Ga Counties Early Where Deep Layer Winds Fields Will Show Greatest Strengthening. However Prime Area For Convection Will Shift Rapidly To Srn Ga/Big Bend.

The Combination Of The Increasing Low-Level Shear, Steep Lapse
Rates, And Increased Instability Maximizes Any Severe Threat During
The Morning Hours.

However Latest Spc Continues To Downplay Severity And Restricts It To East Of Apalachicola River. Model Soundings Show Little Turning With Height At Lowest Levels So Decreased Chance Of Rotation And Tornadoes. This Verified By Local Confidence Tornado Tool Which Now Shows Nil Chance.

As Sc Low Strengthens And Cold Front Races Sewd, Main Threat Area Will Likewise Shift Sewd. So A Combination Of Discrete Cells And Bowing Segments, Possibly Congealing Into A Squall Line Over The Eastern Half Of The Forecast Area Is Expected Around Sunrise Sunday With Main Threat Damaging Straight Line Winds And Large Hail.

Local Confidence Severe Wx Tool Shows Up To 20% Chance Of Severe Wx 12z-18z With Focus Across Cntrl Third Of Cwfa, Down To A Max Of 17% 18z-00z With Focus Shifting To Ern Third.

The Big X Factor Is Impact Of Cooler Ern Shelf Waters On Holding Together Squall As It Moves Across Our Area.

As Far As Rain Totals, Pwats Remain Impressive, 1.42 To 1.72 Inches
Over Cwfa Sun Morning. Latest Cam Max Stp For Total Event Very
Impressive 5 To 7 Inch Totals However Mean Cam And Hpc Stp Only 1.9 To 3 Inches Which Seems More Realistic. This Would Likely Generate Localized Flooding But Flash Flood Guidance Remain High Enough And Will Quick Movement Of Systems, Widespread Flooding Not Anticipated.

Areas Of Dense Fog In Light Rain Are Likely To Precede The Cold
Front. Higher Dew Points Over Cooler Shelf Waters, Especially Over
The Apalachee Bay Will Likely Also Generate Sea Fog. The Convective
Activity Should Exit The Eastern Portion Of The Forecast Area By
Early Afternoon Ending The Threat For Severe Weather And Wly Flow
Aloft In Wake Will Allow For Rapid Drying.

With The Frontal Boundary Not Expected To Exit The Area Until The Afternoon, Temperatures Will Get Quite Warm With Highs Reaching To Around 80 For Most Locations. Expect Increasing Surf Ahead Of Cold Front And Guidance Shows High Risk Of Rip Currents And Borderline High Surf Advisory By Sundown, Especially Walton And Bay Counties. Will Issue High Rip Current Risk But Defer On High Surf Advisory.

After Sunday Afternoon, Upper Trough And Assocd Low Begin To Lift
Newd With Tight Srn Stream Flow Becoming Zonal.

Behind The Front, A Surface High With Cold And Dry Air Will Move Rapidly Sw To Over The Region With Lows Forecast To Reach The Lower To Mid 40s By Monday Morning. Tight Gradients Will Keep Nw Winds Elevated And Breezy.

Afternoon Temps On Both Monday And Tuesday Will Struggle To Reach 60 Degrees Nw Half Of Area And To Only About 65 Degrees
Se Half, About A 20 Degree Drop From Sunday. Lows Monday Night
Will Drop To The Mid 30s Winds Will Remain Elevated.

Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Friday]...

The Large Scale Pattern Will Remain Amplified Through Next Week,
With An Anomalously Deep Trough In Place Over The Eastern States.
This Will Keep A Generally Dry And Cool Northwest Flow In Place
Across The Region.

Expect High Temperatures To Run In The Lower To Mid 60s On Wednesday (Around 10 Degrees Below Normal) Before A Gradual Warmup Begins Late In The Week. Low Temperatures Will Drop
Into The Mid 30s For Several Nights (Around 15 Degrees Below Normal) Before Warming Up Late In The Week As Well.

Aviation...[Through 12z Sunday]

Very Complex Taf Package Through The Entire Period, As A Developing Low Pressure System Off To Our Nw Forms A Strong Warm Frontal Boundary Over The Ne Gulf Coast This Morning.

This Boundary Will Spread Increasing Clouds (Which Will Lower From Vfr To Mvfr And Eventually Ifr Levels) From Sw To Ne Across The
Terminals, Along With Numerous Showers And Thunderstorms. Some Of These Storms Could Be Severe And Produce Damaging Winds, Large Hail, And Locally Heavy Rainfall Which Will Significantly Reduce Visibilities.

Marine...

Onshore Flow Will Increase Through Sunday Ahead Of An Approaching Storm System.

Small Craft Advisory Conditions For Both Winds And Seas Are Likely By Late Tonight And Will Issue Sca.

HIgh Dew Points Moving Over Cooler Shelf Waters May Generate Ample Sea Fog Towards Sunrise Or Until Winds Pick Up.

Strong Offshore Flow Will Develop Late Sunday Aftn In The Wake Of A Cold Front. Occasional Headline Conditions Will Continue Through Mid- Week, As Moderate To Strong Offshore Flow Persists.

Fire Weather...

With Afternoon Relative Humidities On The Rise During The Next
Couple Of Days As A Strong Low Pressure System Approaches From The South And West, No Red Flag Concerns Are Expected Across The Tri-State Area Through The Weekend.

Much Cooler And Drier Air Will Return For The Beginning Of Next Week Allowing For Significantly Lower Afternoon Rhs, But It Is Still Unclear Whether Other Necessary Parameters Will Be In Place For Possible Red Flag Conditions.

Hydrology...

The Next Storm System Will Begin Affecting The Region This Morning
Through Sunday Morning. Model Guidance Has Gradually Come Into
Better Agreement About Rainfall Amounts.

It Appears As Though Around Widespread 2 To 3 Inches Of Rainfall Is Likely Across The Region With Locally Heavier 3-4 Inch Totals.

Because This Event Is Expected To Be Of Relatively Short Duration (About 24 Hours) And Current Rather High Flash Flood Guidance, Widespread Flooding Is Not Anticipated With This System.

However, Localized Flooding In The Usual Flood Prone Areas Is Possible.

Additionally, Widespread Rainfall Of This Amount Will Likely Push Several Area Rivers Back To Action Stage With A Few Of The Faster Responding Basins Potentially Reaching Minor Flood Stage By Early Next Week.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 74 65 82 46 64 / 90 90 50 0 10
Panama City 72 65 76 48 61 / 80 80 40 0 10
Dothan 72 62 80 42 60 / 80 90 30 0 10
Albany 70 62 81 44 61 / 80 90 50 0 10
Valdosta 72 65 81 48 64 / 90 90 60 10 10
Cross City 76 66 78 50 65 / 80 80 70 10 10
Apalachicola 71 66 75 50 61 / 80 70 50 0 10

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...
Small Craft Advisory From 8 Pm This Evening To 2 Pm Edt Monday
For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To
Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-
Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To
60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60
Nm.

High Rip Current Risk This Evening Through Monday Morning For
Walton...Bay And Western Gulf Counties.


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