Dothan Area Weather Discussion Mar 2

Near Term [Until 7 Pm Tonight]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Is Marked By Strong Amplification
Of Wrn Ridge And A Sharp Positively Tilted Trough Over Ern States.

Aided By A Potent Short Wave That Extends From The Ern Tn Valley
South Across The Wrn Gulf, Trough Continues To Deepen Into Gulf Of
Mex. Assocd Dpva Providing Forcing For Ascent.

This Trough Will Continue To Sharpen And Dig Sewd Across The Ne Gulf During Today With Shortwave/Vort Max Already Pushing Jet Stream And Cirrus Shield Sewd And Sending A Deep Arctic Airmass Into The Local Region.

At Surface, Low In Atlc Off Ne States With Series Of Troughs Wsw And
Pivoting Across Se Region And Across Ne Gulf. One Reinforcing
"Spoke" Crossed Local Area Into Waters During Pre-Dawn Hours
Further Cooling Us Off. A Second Boundary Across Srn Most N Ga/Al Is Accompanied By R--/-Sn Over Nrn Half Al. Likewise, Very Strong
Mid/Upper Qg Forcing At Base Of Jet Over Waters So Strong That Its
Squeezing Out Rain From First Spoke And This Reflected Well In All
Hi Res Guidance.

Combination Of Upper/Lower Features Will Maintain Tight Gradient And Breezy/Gusty Nw Winds Over Our Area.

With The Upper Forcing So Strong, Any Moisture That Moves Over Area Will Be Squeezed Out Into This Morning. Will Go With 20% Rain Over Waters Mainly This Morning. The Main Forecast Question Is How Much Of Al Moisture, If Any, Reaches Our Area And If Fast Enough To Overlap Colder Temps. Locally Produced Confidence Guidance And Model Soundings All Continue To Indicate That If Any Hydrometers Make It To The Ground Around Or Soon After Sunrise, They Would Most Likely Be Non-Liquid Across Our Far Northern Zones, In Other Words Flurries. However, Latest Guidance A Tad Less Optimistic That Precip Will Reach Our Nrn Most Counties And Any Low Level Moisture Will Be Limited, But There Does Appear To Be Enough To Warrant The Isold To Slight Chance Pops This Morning. Its Unlikely That Precip Will Survive Father Swd. So After Coordinating With Mob/Bmx, Forecast Mentions A Mix Of Sprinkles And Flurries With Precipitation Limited To Areas North Of Dothan And Albany. We Want To Emphasize That The Chance For Seeing Any Precip Is Very Low, Less Than 20%. By Definition, Flurries Are Trace Events, So No One Should Worry About Any Accumulation. Any Moisture Will Begin To Shift Ewd By Mid Morning.

Precip Or Not, Today Will Be A Raw, Cloudy And Breezy Experience.
With H85 Moisture Assocd With Upstream Frontal Boundary Providing
Ample Stratocu Clouds. At 4 Am Est, Satellite Shows That Leading Edge Of Stratocu Approaching Our Nrn Counties. Day Will Begin With Lows In The Low To Mid 30s And Only Max Out In The Mid To Upper 40s Se Al, Low To Mid 50s Elsewhere Except Mid To Upper 50s Se Big Bend.

Wind Chill Reading Should Be In The Upper 20s To Lower 30s To Start The Day Reaching Only To The Lower To Mid 40s At Least For Northern Zones Most Of The Day.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Tonight The Deep Upper Level Trough Will Dig Into The Southeastern
Conus And Will Continue Moving Eastward. By Sunday Afternoon, The
Upper Level Trough Will Be On The Atlantic Coast And By Monday, We
Will Have Mostly Zonal Flow Aloft. This Trough Is Bringing Arctic Air To The Southern Conus, Making Temperatures Colder Than Normal.

Minimum Temperatures Tonight And Sunday Night Will Be At Or Below
Freezing For Most Of The Forecast Area. A Freeze Warning Has Been
Issued For Late Tonight/Sunday Morning And A Freeze Watch Has Been Issued For Or Sunday Night/Monday Morning For All Of Our Alabama And Georgia Counties And Some Of Our Florida Counties.

Maximum Temperatures Will Be Cooler Than Normal On Sunday, In The Mid 50s.

Monday, Highs Will Be In The Low To Mid 60s.

Pops Are Low Through The Period, Although There Is A Slight Chance Of Light Rain Over The Coastal Waters Tonight.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Friday]...

A Brief Period Of Near Zonal Flow On Monday Night Followed By Another Low Pressure System Swinging Across The Southeast Conus Will Bring Light Rain Chances To The Local Area Tuesday Through Tuesday Night.

Deep Layer Ridging And A Very Dry Airmass Build Into The Region Behind The Cold Front Wednesday Through Thursday.

After This Cold Weekend, Temperatures Will Moderate To Near Seasonal Levels By Tuesday Followed By A Slight Cool Down For Mid Week.

Marine...

This Weekend, Coastal Waters Will See Periods Of Cautionary And
Advisory Level Winds And Seas.

A Small Craft Advisory For Our Coastal Waters Is In Effect.

By Sunday Afternoon, Winds And Seas Are Expected To Decrease To Below Advisory Levels Although The Offshore Waters May Still Be Seeing Exercise Caution Conditions.

By Tuesday, Winds And Seas Will Likely Again Reach Advisory Levels And Remain Elevated Through Wednesday Night With The Approach And Passage Of A Cold Front.

Aviation...[Through 06z Monday]

As The High Clouds Clear, Lower Strato Cu Clouds Associated With A Cold Front Will Push In From The North.

Terminals May See A Few Hours Of Mvfr Cigs Into This Morning Before
Vfr Conditions Return.

Small Chance For Light Rain/Sprinkles Or Snow Flurries At Kdhn/Kaby 12z-15z But Prob Too Low To Include In Tafs.

Breezy Conditions Are Expected To Develop During The Afternoon Hours With Northwest Winds 15 To 20 Mph Gusting To Around 25 Knots.

Winds Will Begin To Decrease And Gusts End After Sundown.

Fire Weather...

Cooler Air Continues To Arrive From The Northwest And Will Continue
Throughout The Weekend.

The Air Mass Is Dry Today And Will Be Even Drier On Sunday When Min Th, Erc And 20 Foot Winds Will Approach Red Flag Criteria. However, The Saturated Surface Due To Last Weeks Rainfall Should Prevent Fire Weather Concerns.

Hydrology...

Flooding Along Major Area Rivers And Tributaries Will Continue
Through The Weekend, And Perhaps Into Next Week. A Summary Of
Expected River Crests Is Below.

* Morning Changes: Some Minor Tweaks Were Made To Suwaneee River At Ellaville, Dowling Park And Branford As Well As The Chiplola
At Althea, The Flint At Bainbridge And The Withlacooche At Pinetta.

* Long Range Outlook: Some Of The Forecast Points On The Lower
Portions Of The Rivers That Are Detailed Below May Still Be In Flood Stage Early Next Week - Particularly Those Closer To The Gulf Of Mexico. Additionally, We May Start Seeing Some Flooding Develop On The Suwannee River As It Begins To Receive Routed Water From The Alapaha And Withlacoochee Rivers - Both Of Which Had Very Heavy Rainfall In Those Basins Recently.

---Points That Have Already Crested But Are Still Flooding---

Choctawhatchee River At Caryville And Bruce
Ochlockonee River At Thomasville, Concord, Havana And Bloxham
Apalachicola River At Blountstown
Chipola River At Marianna
Aucilla River At Lamont
Withlacoochee River Above Valdosta

Now That All Of The Expected Rain Has Fallen, The Confidence In
Predicting The Following Crest Stages Is Higher Than Normal:

---Moderate Flood Stage---

Chipola River At Altha
Withlacoochee River Near Pinetta

---Minor Flood Stage---

Flint River At Bainbridge
Suwannee River Near Ellaville

For Specific Crest Levels And Timing Of These Crests, Please
Consult Our Ahps Page By Clicking On Rivers And Lakes On Our
Website. This Can Be Found At The Following Web Address.

Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 54 31 57 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 55 36 53 38 59 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 49 31 55 31 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 51 29 55 29 63 / 20 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 53 30 56 29 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
Cross City 57 30 58 28 64 / 10 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 55 37 53 35 56 / 10 0 0 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...

Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Walton-Lafayette-Madison.

Freeze Warning From 1 Am Est /Midnight Cst/ To 9 Am Est /8 Am Cst / Sunday For Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Walton-Lafayette-Madison.

Ga...

Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Freeze Warning From 1 Am To 9 Am Est Sunday For Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

Al...

Freeze Watch From Late Sunday Night Through Monday Morning For
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Freeze Warning From Midnight Tonight To 8 Am Cst Sunday For
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Gm...

Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Pm Est This Evening For Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm.

Small Craft Advisory Until 10 Am Est Sunday For Waters From
Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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