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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Mar 10

Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Remains Highly Amplified
Highlighted By A Ridge Just Off West Coast And A Positively Tilted
Trough Lifting And Deepening Into Mid Ms-Valley. Associated Low
To Lift To Lake Mi With Trailing Front Ssw To La By Sundown. In
Response, Ern Dirty Ridge Shifts Further Ewd And Offshore With
Mid/High Clouds Pulling Newd With It.

At Surface, Period Begins With Low Over Ern Mo With Cold Front Ssw Across Wrn Ms/Ern La Into Mexico. High Pressure From Canadian Maritimes Swwd Across Ern Most Fl. By Sunrise Monday, Low Lifts Into Nrn Great Lakes With Front Swd Across Wrn Al Into Gulf Of Mex And Ridge Axis Into Adjacent Atlc.

With The Local Areas Between Departing But Still Close Ridge And
Approaching And Deepening Trough/Low, Local Winds Will Continue To Veer To S. During Predawn Hours Lower Clouds And Possibly Brief
Light Fog Will Begin To Spread W-E Impacting Mainly West Half Of
Cwfa. Winds Picking Up Should Curtail Any Chance That Fog Will
Persist.

Expect Inland Lows Generally In The Low 50s East To Mid 50s In West.

Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Cold Front Is Still Expected To Push Through The Area On Monday
Night As Has Been Advertised The Past Couple Days.

With Moderately Strong Qg Convergence Ahead Of The Corresponding Mid-Upper Level Trough Axis, We Anticipate A Strongly Forced Band Of Moderate To Heavy Rain.

Isolated Storms Are Possible, But Mainly In The Western Part Of The Forecast Area Where Gfs Projected Lis Briefly Approach -1c Before Becoming More Stable As The Front Moves East.

Overall, Though, The Instability Is Very Weak And Nam And Gfs
Forecast Soundings Roughly Follow A Moist Adiabat - Something That
Is More Indicative Of Heavy Rain Than Vigorous Convection.

Pops Peaking At 80-90% Were Maintained.

Tomorrow Should Be A Warm Day In The Eastern Part Of Our Area (Mid-Upper 70s Again), With Clouds Restricting The Highs In The Western Part Of The Area Closer To 70 Degrees.

Slightly Cooler Air Is Expected For Tuesday.

Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Extended Weather Pattern Should Be Relatively Static With A Closed
Upper Level Low In The St. Lawrence River Valley And Northeast
Slow To Move.

With A Quasi-Blocking Pattern In Place With A Mean Trough In The Northeast Us, Our Area Will Remain In Wnw-Nw Flow Aloft Through The Extended & Corresponding Surface High Pressure.

The Result Will Be Sunny Skies, Moderating Temperatures, And Dry
Weather With No Rain Chances.

Aviation [Through 18z Monday]...

Vfr Conditions Under A Scattered And Thinning Mid And Upper Clouds
Will Prevail Through At Least 06z Mon.

Then Increasingly Low Level Clouds Will Overspread Wrn Areas With Mvfr Cigs And Possibly Vsbys In Light Fog Ahead Of Approaching Front.

The Focus Will Be Across Kdhn And By 12z Kaby And Kecp.

Southeast Winds Will Increase Rest Of This Afternoon To 15 To 20 Mph With Gusts Around 25 Knots.

After Sunset, Winds Will Veer To South And Decrease To 5 To 10 Mph Before Increasing Again After Sunrise To 15 To 20 Mph With Higher Gusts.

By 18z Mon, Front Approaching Ern Al With Shwrs And Embedded Bands Of Heavy Rain With Possible Isold Tstms Spreading Ahead Of It.

Forecast Will Show Prevailing Shwrs At Kdhn, Tempo At Kecp, And Chance At Ktlh And Kaby. Mvfr Cigs/Vsbys Possible In Any Heavy Rain.

Marine...

With The Buoy Offshore Of Panama City Still Reporting Winds Around
21 Knots And Seas Of 8 Feet As Of 18z, The Small Craft Advisory
For The Western Waters Has Been Extended Another Two Hours Until
22z To Allow Additional Time For The Winds And Seas To Subside.

A Relative Lull In The Winds May Occur This Evening, Although Scec
Winds May Hold On West Of Apalachicola.

Scec Conditions Should Redevelop Everywhere Late Tonight, With Some Borderline Advisory Level Winds Possible Tomorrow As The Front Approaches.

For Now We Will Hoist A Scec Headline East Of Apalachicola Through Tomorrow.

Once The Advisory Expires West, That Headline Will Likely Be
Replaced With A Similar Scec Headline.

The High Risk Of Rip Currents Has Been Extended Through 03z
Tuesday (Monday Evening) As Surf Heights Will Build Slightly Into
Tomorrow With Similar (Or Slightly Stronger) Wind Conditions.

Fire Weather...

Although 20 Foot Winds This Afternoon Likely Realized Red Flag
Criteria, Dew Point Remained Higher Than Forecast And Failed To
Justify The Issuance Of A Red Flag Warning.

A Front Will Approach The Forecast Area Overnight And Move Across Monday Night Into Tuesday.

This Will Bring Ample Rain Along With Gusty Winds Allowing The Airmass To Sufficiently Moisten To Preclude Any Red Flag Concerns.

In Its Wake, The Airmass Will Noticeably Dry Out. Minimum Inland Rh Should Hover In The Mid 20s Wednesday And Thursday And Will Be Monitored For Possible Red Flag Warnings.

Hydrology...

The Only River Gauge That Is Reporting A Level Above Flood Stage
Is The One Near Lamont On The Aucilla River. That River Has
Crested At That Point, And River Levels Are Slowly Receding.

The Suwannee River Has Crested At Branford Today, And Points North Of There Earlier In The Week. No Flood Stages Are Currently Being Exceeded On The Suwannee River, And None Are Forecast As The Crest Wave Moves Downstream.

Upcoming Rainfall Is Not Expected To Be Sufficient To Cause
Additional River (Or Flash) Flooding.

The Front Will Be Moving Through The Area Quickly - More Or Less In About 12 Hours, With Around An Inch Or Less Of Rainfall Expected.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 52 74 51 68 40 / 0 40 80 30 0
Panama City 58 69 48 65 46 / 0 80 90 10 0
Dothan 55 71 44 65 41 / 0 90 80 10 0
Albany 53 74 47 65 39 / 0 50 80 20 0
Valdosta 53 76 54 69 40 / 0 20 80 40 0
Cross City 50 78 59 72 41 / 0 10 80 40 0
Apalachicola 59 69 51 65 46 / 0 50 80 20 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...High Risk Of Rip Currents Through Monday Evening For Coastal
Portions Of Walton, Bay, Gulf, And Franklin Counties.

Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory Until 6 Pm Edt This Evening For Coastal
Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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