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Dothan Area Weather Discussion Mar 1

Short Term (Tonight)...

The Combination Of Ongoing Cold Air Advection, High Clouds, And
Incoming Lower Clouds, Will Make The Overnight Temperature Forecast A Tricky One.

Fortunately, The Period Is Expected To Remain Dry.

The High Clouds Are Forecast To Gradually Push To The North And East Overnight As The Primary Jet Streak Ejects To The Northeast.

However, As That Happens, Lower Level Cloudiness Associated With The Approaching Mid-Level Shortwave Will Be Increasing.

In Addition, Winds Are Not Expected To Decouple With The Continued Cold Air Advection Pattern.

Given These Factors, Feel That The Statistical Guidance Is Too Low With Overnight Temperatures, And Favored A Blend Of The High-Res Guidance.

This Results In Slightly Less Cold Temperatures Than Previously Forecast (Lows In The Mid And Upper 30s).

Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A Cold Pattern Is Setting Up For This Weekend With A Highly
Amplified Trough Digging Down Through The Eastern 1/3 Of The Conus.

As The Shortwave/Vort Max Dives Into Amplifying Base Of The Trough
Saturday/Saturday Night It Will Send A Deep Arctic Airmass Into The
Local Region.

Extensive Cloud Cover Is Expected Through The Period And There Continues To Be A Slight Chance For A Few Showers Or Sprinkles Mainly Saturday Morning And Possibly Another Chance Saturday Night Mainly Across The Northernmost Zones.

A Non-Zero Chance Of Mixed Precip Is Possible Saturday Night But Will Not Mention In Zones.

Both Saturday And Sunday Will Be Cold With Max Temps Generally In The Lower To Mid 50s But Saturday Will Feel Colder With Breezy Northwest Winds.

Wind Chill Reading May Be In The Lower To Mid 40s At Least For Northern Zones Most Of The Day.

Winds Will Diminish Saturday Night But Light Winds Overnight Along With The Cloud Cover Should Keep Temps Near The Freezing Mark.

Current Grids And Zones Will Show A Widespread Light Freeze But Will Defer Freeze Watch To Later Shifts Due To The Uncertainty.

A Light Freeze Is More Likely For Sunday Night.

Long Term [Monday Through Thursday]...

A Brief Period Of Near Zonal Flow On Monday Followed By Another Low Pressure System Swinging Across The Southeast Conus Will Bring Rain Chances To The Local Area Tuesday Through Tuesday Night.

Deep Layer Ridging And A Very Dry Airmass Build Into The Region Behind The Cold Front Wednesday Through Thursday.

After A Cold Weekend, Temperatures Will Moderate To Near Seasonal Levels By Tuesday Followed By A Slight Cool Down For Mid Week.

Aviation (Through 18z Saturday)...

High Clouds Will Continue To Stream Over The Region Into Tonight
Before Shifting East.

However, As The High Clouds Clear, Lower Clouds Will Push In From The North, Associated With A Cold Front.

Terminals May See A Few Hours Of Mvfr Cigs Late Tonight Into
Saturday Morning, Before Vfr Conditions Return.

Marine...

Expect Periods Of Cautionary And Advisory Level Winds And Seas
Across The Entire Marine Area Through The Weekend.

Advisory Level Winds And Seas Will Begin Saturday At Least Across The Offshore Waters.

Winds And Seas Will Briefly Diminish Sunday Night And Monday
As High Pressure Builds Over The Waters Before Increasing Again As
Another Low Pressure System Moves Across The Waters By Mid Week.

Fire Weather...

Cooler Air Continues To Arrive From The Northwest And Throughout The Weekend.

The Air Mass Is Dry Which Will Lower Relative Humidities But They Will Stay Above Red Flag Criteria.

The Saturated Surface Due To Last Weeks Rainfall Will Also Prevent Fire Weather Concerns.

Hydrology...

Flooding Along Major Area Rivers And Tributaries Will Continue
Through The Weekend, And Perhaps Into Next Week.

A Summary Of Expected River Crests Is Below.

* Overnight Changes:

Flood Warnings Were Cancelled At Sopchoppy And Newport As Both Sites Have Fallen Below Flood Stage.

The Forecast On The Flint River At Bainbridge Has Come Down And
Now Only Minor Flooding Is Forecast.

A New Flood Warning Was Issued At Ellaville On The Suwannee River As Forecasts Continue To Show It Reaching Flood Stage By Sunday, And There Is High Confidence In Flooding On That Portion Of The Suwannee River.

Otherwise, Only Minor Changes.

* Long Range Outlook: Some Of The Forecast Points On The Lower
Portions Of The Rivers That Are Detailed Below May Still Be In Flood Stage Early Next Week - Particularly Those Closer To The Gulf Of Mexico.

Additionally, We May Start Seeing Some Flooding Develop On The Suwannee River As It Begins To Receive Routed Water From The Alapaha And Withlacoochee Rivers - Both Of Which Had Very Heavy Rainfall In Those Basins Recently.

Points That Have Already Crested But Are Still Flooding---

Choctawhatchee River Geneva, Caryville, And Bruce
Spring Creek At Iron City
Ochlockonee River At Thomasville, Concord, And Havana
Apalachicola River At Blountstown
Chipola River At Marianna
Aucilla River At Lamont
Withlacoochee River Above Valdosta

Now That All Of The Expected Rain Has Fallen, The Confidence In
Predicting The Following Crest Stages Is Higher Than Normal:

---Moderate Flood Stage---

Chipola River At Altha
Withlacoochee River Near Pinetta

---Minor Flood Stage---

Ochlockonee River At Bloxham
Flint River At Bainbridge
Suwannee River Near Ellaville

For Specific Crest Levels And Timing Of These Crests, Please
Consult Our Ahps Page By Clicking On Rivers And Lakes On Our
Website. This Can Be Found At The Following Web Address.

Water.Weather.Gov/Ahps2/Index.Php?Wfo=Tae

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 37 55 31 54 29 / 10 10 10 0 0
Panama City 42 55 36 56 36 / 10 10 10 0 0
Dothan 35 50 31 52 31 / 10 10 10 0 0
Albany 35 51 29 52 28 / 10 20 10 0 0
Valdosta 35 54 30 54 30 / 10 10 0 0 0
Cross City 39 58 30 57 29 / 10 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 41 56 36 54 34 / 10 10 10 0 0

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.

Gm...Small Craft Advisory From 7 Am Saturday To 10 Am Est Sunday
For Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.


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