Near Term [Rest Of Today]...
The Large Scale Longwave Pattern Remains Amplified Yet Progressive. This Is Highlighted By Sharp Trough Over West Coast With Cutoff Low Over Cntrl Ca, Equally Sharp Ridge Through The Rockies, Troughing In The East And Ridging Over Bahamas/Fl Straits.
A Plume Of Deep Layer Moisture Along With Embedded Impulses Will Continue To Translate From Sw To Ne Across The Gulf Of Mexico And The Se Corner Of The Conus.
At The Surface, Looking Nwd, High Anchored From Srn Plains Ewd Into Carolinas. A Low Was Noted Over Great Lakes With Frontal Trough Ssw Into Tn Valley. Looking Swd, Low/Weak Wave Was Observed In The Cntrl Gulf With Quasi-Stnry Front Ene To Across Cntrl Fl. In Between 1022mb High Centered Along E/Cntrl Fl Coast.
Radar And Obs Shows That All This Translates To Cloudy And Cool Weather With Upglide Mainly Light Rain Or Sprinkles North Of The Front And Across Our Area.
During The Rest Of Today, Upper Shortwave Will Exit Tn Valley And
Dig Sewd Into Se Region By This Eve Then Off Coast By 12z Mon.
As This Occurs, A Cool Dome Of Surface High Pressure Will Move From Tx Towards Ms Valley And Build N Of Region Shunting The Frontal Trough Ewd. The Wave Will Move Ne Then Stall And Weaken S Of Our Area.
All This Will Push Assocd Gulf Front And Axis Of Rain E/Se. Clouds Will Be Slow To Clear From Nw-Se Until This High Pressure Becomes Established Tonight. Thus Clearing Skies Will Not Likely Occur Across Se Third Of Our Area Until Around Sunrise Mon.
Qpf Amounts Will Generally Be Light. Based On Latest Radar Trends
Which Show Additional Light To Ocnl Moderate Patches Of Rain, Rain
And Clouds Will Be Slower To Exit Than Previously Expected. So
Tweaked Grids Accordingly.
Pops For This Afternoon Will Be Tapered Slight (20%) Nw To Categorical (70%) Se For The Southeast Big Bend.
Based On Current Temp Trends And Expected Cloud Cover, Lowered Max Temps (Especially Nw 2/3rd Of Cwa) A Degree Or Two. Max Temps Will Be Around 60 Except For Low To Mid 60s Se Big Bend.
Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A Shortwave Will Pass To Our North Tonight With A Brief Period Of
Dry Air Overspreading The Tri-State Region Monday And Monday Night
As Upper Ridging Builds In From The West.
The Surface High Will Be Well Removed To Our Northeast On Monday So The Low Level Northeasterly Flow May Bring Less Favorable Sky Conditions Across The Southeast Big Bend But No Rain Is Expected.
On Tuesday, The Aforementioned Closed Upper Low Sluggishly Moves Eastward From The Gulf Of California Into Northwest Mexico. This Will Begin Enhancing Upstream Ridging Across The Gulf Of Mexico With Isentropic Ascent Commencing Along The Northern Rim.
A Few Showers Will Be Possible Mainly For The Florida Zones But Have Broad Brushed Slight Pops Across The Entire Cwa.
We Will See A Gradual Warming Trend With Max And Min Temperatures Above Seasonal On Tuesday.
Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Next Sunday]...
The Long Wave Pattern Will Become Less Progressive During This
Period As A Trough Becomes Established Across The Western U.S. And A Downstream Ridge Builds Across The Eastern Seaboard.
An Upper Low Centered Over Northern Mexico At The Start Of The Period Will Lift Across Tx Wednesday And Wednesday Night And Then Open Up As It Lifts Northeast Around The Developing Ridge. Heights Will Really Begin To Fall Across The Great Plains And Rockies After That. Large Differences Remain Among The Models With Respect To The Surface Frontal System.
The Euro Now Brings It Slowly East, While The Gfs Accelerates It To The North Making Us Wait For The Next System To Approach Days Later. Considering The Amplitude Of The Pattern By This Time, We Prefer The Less Progressive Solution.
The Resultant Forecast Features A Considerable Warm-Up Locally. From Wednesday Through Saturday, Look For Temps To Be 10 To 15 Degrees Above Normal By Day And 15-20 Degrees Above At Night.
Pops Will Generally Be In The 20-30% Range Through The Period. We Shaved Back The Mention Of Thunderstorms To Include Only Our Western Zones On Thursday Afternoon And Evening.
Aviation...Through 12 Utc Monday...
Ceilings And Vsbys Will Remain Mvfr Generally In The 1-3k Range Ern Terminals And 4-5k Range Wrn Terminals In Any Light Rain/ Sprinkles Today Impacting Mainly Tlh And Vld.
Otherwise, Vfr Conditions Should Prevail Through Much Of The Taf Period Including Late Tonight.
Northeast To East Winds Are Forecast For Most Of The Upcoming Week.
Winds And Seas At Times Will Increase To Cautionary Levels Along
With Periods Of Advisory Levels, Especially Over The Western Waters
We Expect Advisory Conditions To Begin Tonight.
For This Reason, We Will Show An East To West Split For This Forecast Package.
Red Flag Conditions Are Not Expected This Week. The Primary Concern Will Be Very Low Dispersion Indices Today.
Expected Rainfall Over The Next Several Days Is Only Expected To
Result In Minor Rises On Area Waters.
Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Tallahassee 61 41 63 47 70 / 60 20 0 10 20
Panama City 63 44 64 51 70 / 50 10 0 10 20
Dothan 59 38 61 43 65 / 30 0 0 10 20
Albany 60 36 62 43 65 / 30 0 0 10 20
Valdosta 60 40 63 47 70 / 60 30 0 10 20
Cross City 64 46 68 51 77 / 70 70 10 10 20
Apalachicola 62 46 62 50 67 / 70 30 0 10 20
Gm...Small Craft Advisory From 10 Pm This Evening To 11 Am Est
Monday For Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm-Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm.
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