Dothan Area Weather Discussion Jan 5

Near Term [Today]...

The Upper Low Currently Over The Tx/Ok Panhandles Will Eject To The Northeast And Open Up Into A Trough Over The Great Lakes Region By Tonight. Embedded Impulses In The Deep Southwest Flow Along With Abundant Moisture Currently Over The Western Gulf Will Advect Northeastward.

By Days End We Should Mainly Only See The Outer Fringe Of The Large Area Of Rain Associated With This System Impacting Our Cwa.

Will Show Pops Slightly Higher (30%) Along The Florida Panhandle Coast With Slight (20%) To Nil For The Remainder Of The Fa.

Max Temps Will Range From The Upper 50s Western And Northern Zones To Around 60 To Mid 60s Elsewhere.

Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The Deepest Moisture And Best Lift Depicted By The Models Will Be Across Our Florida Zones And Coastal Waters Tonight Into Sunday.

We Could See A Very Sharp Pop Gradient Especially On Sunday As The Digging Upper Trough Begins To Scour Out Moisture From Nw To Se.

Drier Air Should Filter Into The Entire Cwa On Monday With Upper Ridging Building In Overhead.

The Cloud Cover, Rain, And Low-Level Cool Airmass Will Help To Keep Max Temperatures Slightly Below Seasonal Norms On Sunday.

Although Low Level Flow Is Expected To Be Offshore On Monday The Increasing Insolation Should Boost Max Temps A Few Degrees Above Seasonal Levels.

Min Temps Both Night Will Be Within A Few Degrees Of Normal.

Long Term [Monday Night Through Next Saturday]...

The Pattern Will Remain Progressive Through This Period. Another
Upper Low Will Be Centered Near The Border Of Northwest Mexico And The Southwestern U.S. At The Start Of The Period.

This Low Will Swing Eastward To Tx And Then Be Pulled Northeastward Across The Mid Ms And Ohio Valleys To The Northeast Or Mid Atlantic. There Are Timing And Latitudinal Differences Among The Models Typical Of The Mid/Long Range Forecast.

Confidence Is High That Temperatures Will Warm Considerably Over The Forecast Area As Heights Rise Ahead Of The Approaching System.

From Thursday Through Saturday, Temps Will Be Well Above Normal, By About 15 Degrees For Lows And About 10 Degrees For Highs.

Timing The Progress Of The Associated Surface Front Will Be A Challenge.

We Have Capped Pops At 40% For Now With Highest Pops On Thursday. There Also Appears To Be Enough Potential Instability To Mention Thunderstorms In The Forecast From Wednesday Afternoon Through Thursday.

Aviation...[Through 06 Utc Sunday]...

Mvfr Conditions Are Forecast For Parts Of The Night Through About
14z At Vld.

Elsewhere And Otherwise, Vfr Conditions Are Expected Trough The Taf Cycle With Light Winds.

Some Light Rain Could Start Falling Out Of A Mid Level Deck Of Clouds This Evening.

Marine...

With A Cold Front Stalled South Of The Waters And High Pressure To
The North, Moderate Northeast Flow Is Expected To Continue Into
Early Next Week.

Winds Will Occasionally Approach Exercise Caution Levels Through This Weekend With Small Craft Conditions Possible By Late Monday Into Midweek.

Widespread Light Rains Will Overspread The Coastal Waters Later Today Through Sunday Night.

Fire Weather...

Rh Will Dip Below 35 Percent Across Inland Portions Of The Fl Big
Bend This Afternoon.

However, Light Winds, And Low Dispersion And Erc Values Will Preclude Red Flag Criteria From Being Met.

Moisture Will Increase On Sunday And There Are No Fire Weather Concerns For Next Week.

Hydrology...

Expected Rainfall Over The Next Several Days Is Only Expected To
Result In Minor Rises On Area Waters.

Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...

Tallahassee 61 46 61 40 64 / 20 60 60 30 10
Panama City 60 48 61 45 66 / 30 60 50 20 10
Dothan 58 43 61 37 62 / 20 30 30 10 10
Albany 58 42 60 37 64 / 20 40 30 20 10
Valdosta 60 45 60 40 66 / 10 60 60 30 10
Cross City 64 50 63 45 70 / 20 60 70 60 20
Apalachicola 61 49 62 48 64 / 30 60 60 30 20

Tae Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

Fl...None.
Ga...None.
Al...None.
Gm...None.


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